667
FXUS61 KAKQ 261726
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
126 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAIN FOR MEMORIAL DAY. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1023 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, DRYING OUT
N TO S.
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
IT HAS BEEN QUITE A DREARY, COOL START TO MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY REACHED THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S, WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS, BUT ARE NOW GENERALLY RELEGATED TO AREAS SOUTH
OF RICHMOND WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF SPRINKLES TO THE NORTH.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO LESS THAN A QUARTER OF
AN INCH, WITH MANY AREAS SEEING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE
IS A DECENT GRADIENT OF PW ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH SOUNDINGS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH HAVE VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 1" WHILE
SOUNDINGS TO OUR SOUTH SAMPLED PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.5". HIGH
PRESSURE IS STARTING TO BUILD BACK INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH,
WHICH EXPLAINS THE CLEAR DRYING TREND.
CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE FROM N TO S TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, FURTHERING THE DRYING TREND. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH SOME ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL LIKELY PREVAIL FOR MOST
COMMUNITIES. AREAS IN NE NC COULD SEE LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SO HAVE KEPT AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES WHERE THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR A CHANGE. FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AND CLOUD COVER WILL BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT BEFORE THICKENING ONCE
AGAIN BY TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 325 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOL AGAIN TUES WITH PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING W TO E IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO WED.
HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHED TO THE NE TUES WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXPANDS UP THE COAST TO THE SOUTH AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES VA FROM THE W. THIS WILL SET UP CAD FOR THE LOCAL AREA.
GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO WARM IN THESE SET UPS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT, SO NBM10 WAS BLENDED IN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE NOW IN THE LOW-MID 60S W OF I-95 AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S E
OF I-95. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND PRECIP MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE FA
FROM THE SW TUES AFTERNOON, THEN INCREASES IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LIKELY KEEP THUNDER
OUT OF THE AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SFC
PATTERN GOING INTO WED. THE 00Z GFS, NAM12 AND CANADIAN ALL DEVELOP
A CLOSED OFF LOW PRESSURE TO THE S AND BRING IT UP THE COAST, BUT
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND TRACK REMAIN. THE ECMWF STILL DOES
NOT SPIN UP THIS LOW AND INSTEAD LIFTS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA WED. EITHER SOLUTION LEADS TO CONTINUING RAINFALL THROUGH
WED MORNING, BUT WILL IMPACT HOW INTENSE THE RAINFALL IS AND
WHEN THE PRECIP ENDS. THE GFS AND NAM ARE FASTER WITH THE LOW
MOVING OFFSHORE AND RESULT IN CONDITIONS DRYING OUT FASTER WED
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW THE LOW/WARM FRONT PLAY
OUT, BUT EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 ACROSS THE
N AND LOW-MID 70S IN THE S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 325 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS APPROACH THE REGION.
TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL THURS-SUN AS FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
RETURNS TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND THICKNESSES INCREASE. FORECAST HIGHS
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THROUGH SAT, THEN PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER ON SUN. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S.
THERE IS STILL A LOT UP IN THE AIR ABOUT JUST HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL
SEE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z SUITE OF GLOBAL
MODELS MAINTAIN DIFFERENCES IN SFC FEATURES AND THEREFORE PRECIP,
BUT AM STARTING TO SEE (RELATIVELY) BETTER ALIGNMENT IN FEATURES
ALOFT WHICH IS ENCOURAGING AT LEAST. REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION, THE
PERIOD STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN
VIA SHORTWAVES AND COLD FRONTS. WILL MAINTAIN CHNC POPS EACH DAY
(PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON) THURS THROUGH SAT. WHILE COVERAGE IS
LIKELY LOWER FOR SUN, CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UL
TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 126 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A FEW INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW
OUR AT ECG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY TEMPOS FOR
THE TIME BEING. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THICKENING AND LOWER AGAIN BY THE MORNING AHEAD AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM. HAVE NOT INCLUDED PRECIPITATION IN ANY OF THE
TAFS AS OF NOW, BUT DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE INCOMING RAINFALL,
RIC COULD SEE RAIN BEFORE 18Z TOMORROW SO ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE
MADE IN THE UPCOMING TAF CYCLES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO PICK UP
FROM THE EAST LATER TOMORROW MORNING.
DRY WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
- A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH INTO NC LATER THIS MORNING,
BRINGING A PERIOD WITH ELEVATED, BUT MAINLY SUB- SCA, E-NE
WINDS. IT WILL BE MARGINAL, BUT DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE SCA
TODAY FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND.
- SCAS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY WITH ELEVATED E WINDS, SHIFTING TO THE SE.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND WILL DROP SE AND BECOME CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTN, SLOWLY SLIDING OFF THE
COAST OF MD/NJ OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH (OVER NC/SC) LATER TODAY, BUT IS QUITE
WEAK AND SUPPRESSED, SO WINDS TODAY WILL BE RATHER MINIMAL AND
HAVE TRENDED A BIT LOWER. STILL EXPECT A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CURRITUCK SOUND, WITH
ELEVATED BUT SUB-SCA LEVEL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
DIMINISHES THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES JUST
OFF THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC COAST (AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TEMPORARILY WEAKENS LOCALLY). WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM,
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ENE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TUE NIGHT/WED,
WITH A SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. THE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AN
POSITION OF THE SFC LOW, WHICH WILL AFFECT THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT, IT DOES APPEAR THAT SCA CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED FOR AT LEAST THE
BAY AND OCEAN FOR INCREASING E- SE WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO
4-6+ FT, WITH WAVES 3-4 FT INTO THE LOWER BAY. WINDS/SEAS SLOWLY
DROP BACK OFF AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOWLY RISING WATER LEVELS STARTING
LATER TODAY...WITH LEVELS CONTINUING TO RISE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN NUISANCE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING (AND THIS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE USUAL
SITES SUCH AS OYSTER/BISHOP'S HEAD). WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING
MINOR FLOODING IN SOME PORTION OF THE BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND
PORTIONS OF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES
STARTING TUESDAY EVENING, LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND IN NE NC (MAINLY FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS INCLUDING EDENTON) WITH INCREASING SE WINDS TUESDAY
EVENING.
RIP CURRENT RISK IS MODERATE TODAY FOR NC BEACHES WHERE SEAS
BUILD TO ~ 3FT, BUT LOW ELSEWHERE GIVEN ONLY ~2 FT SEAS. THE
RISK INCREASES TUESDAY, WITH ALL BUT THE MD BEACHES INTO MODERATE,
AND LIKELY HIGH BY WEDNESDAY AS NEARSHORE SEAS AVERAGE 4-5 FT,
POSSIBLE HIGHER.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
SYNOPSIS...AC/NB
NEAR TERM...AC/NB
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC/NB
MARINE...ERI/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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