983
FXUS61 KAKQ 270141
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
941 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 940 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING WITH
MINIMAL RAIN EXPECTED.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS TONIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
50S.
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE NE
OF THE AREA. WHILE IT WAS A RATHER DREARY DAY, IT DID CLEAR OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70. FURTHER S, THE CLOUDS LINGERED, BUT HAVE
ACTUALLY BEEN CLEARING OUT FURTHER THIS EVENING. EITHER WAY,
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING QUITE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR WITH 9 PM TEMPS IN THE 50S. A FEW SPRINKLES ALSO REMAIN
OVER NE NC. FOR TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INITIALLY WILL ONCE AGAIN THICKEN BY
TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 50S, EXCEPT THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN NE NC AND UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NW.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 246 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOL AGAIN TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING W TO
E IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS LOW TRANSITS NORTHEASTWARD, THE
HIGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA WILL EJECT INTO THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC. ADDITIONALLY, A TROUGH IS SET UP OFF THE SE
COAST WHICH WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH THE OTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR (CAD) ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER TUESDAY. LIGHT OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION MAY ENTER THE WESTERN COUNTIES A BIT EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED, SO THIS WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S
FOR THE PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
DURING THE DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ENTER THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES BETWEEN 10
AM- 2 PM, 1-4 PM NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR, AND 3-7 PM NEAR THE
COAST. INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, SO THUNDER CHANCES
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL REMAIN LOW AS OF NOW. SOME OF THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY HAVE SOME
CREEPING IN OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, SO
WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC SET UP ON
WEDNESDAY STILL REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, THOUGH MOST
GUIDANCE IS COMING MORE INTO LINE WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND MOVING OFF THE NC COAST. THE ECMWF STILL
HAS MORE OF AN OPEN TROUGH RATHER THAN A DEFINED LOW. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN THESE TWO SCENARIOS WILL BE HOW LONG PRECIPITATION
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING OUT, THOUGH
THE 12Z ECMWF IS SUGGESTING RAINFALL WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLIER
AND IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF
THE EXACT SET- UP, THE RAINFALL FORECAST IS DEPICTING WIDESPREAD
1-2" TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE AXIS OF
HIGHEST RAINFALL IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. WPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH-FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW- LYING AREAS. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY ARE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION ENDS. FOR
NOW, HAVE TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER
70S SE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 246 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY CONTINUE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS
MULTIPLE SYSTEMS APPROACH THE REGION.
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EAST COAST DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS IN TERMS OF SURFACE FEATURES, SO THERE IS A
BIT OF A RANGE IN POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES STARTING THURSDAY. SOME
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT, SO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, GENERALLY FOLLOWING DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST FOR HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND SWING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY START TO MODERATE AND RETURN BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WARMER AIRMASS FINALLY
MOVES INTO THE AREA AND CLOUDS START TO SCATTER. HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 740 PM EDT MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF
THE 00Z/26 TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN A BKN-
OVC CLOUD DECK OVER SRN VA AND NE NC (INCLUDING AT PHF, ORF, AND
ECG) AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE N (RIC AND SBY). CIGS ARE
GENERALLY VFR, BUT A FEW/PATCHY MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
NEAR ECG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE S
SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT BEFORE THICKENING AND
LOWERING AGAIN BY THE MORNING AHEAD AN APPROACHING SYSTEM.
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY, INITIALLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON,
SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND COAST LATER IN
THE DAY. WILL GENERALLY COVER WITH VCSH FOR NOW (WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z WED), BUT HAVE INCLUDED
-SHRA AT RIC FROM 20Z ONWARD. MVFR CIGS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE IN
THE PERIOD FOR INLAND LOCATIONS, BUT EXPECT IFR TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT INCREASE TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING E/ESE AT 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT AT THE COAST.
OUTLOOK: RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY DUE TO BOTH
CIGS AND VSBY. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
AS OF 246 PM EDT MONDAY...
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY, BUT
E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.
- SOLID SCAS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY WITH ELEVATED E WINDS, SHIFTING TO THE SE.
- SUB-SCA S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THU/FRI.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS
ARE E-NE AT 5-10 KT OVER MOST OF THE MARINE AREA, BUT ARE CLOSER TO
15 KT IN THE NE NC WATERS. SUB-SCA TONIGHT AS WINDS STAY MAINLY E-
NE. HOWEVER, SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15 KT BY TUE AM AS OUR NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE OH VALLEY AND THE HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE. THAT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TUE
NIGHT/WED, WITH A SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST BY WED AM. THE 12Z/26 MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
THAT THE SECONDARY SFC LOW DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS NNE ALONG THE NC/VA
COAST FROM WED AFTN-WED EVENING. THE MODELS STILL DIFFER A LITTLE
BIT WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE SFC LOW, BUT
EXPECT E WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT (W/ GUSTS TO 25 KT) TUE NIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS (INCLUDING THE RIVERS). THEN, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF 20-25 KT E-ESE WINDS WITH FREQUENT 30
KT GUSTS DURING THE DAY ON WED AS THE LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST AND
THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. IN FACT, LOCAL WIND PROBS SHOW A
10-30% CHC OF 34 KT GUSTS NORTH OF THE VA-NC BORDER FROM 10 AM-4 PM
WED. WINDS BECOME SE, S, THEN W AND GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 10-15 KT
WED NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE NE. SCAS WILL BE NEEDED FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/WED NIGHT FOR AT LEAST MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE WATERS. SEAS BUILD TO 5-7+ FT ON WED, WITH WAVES OF 3-5 FT INTO
THE LOWER BAY. SEAS FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MIDDAY THU. SUB-SCA S-
SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THU/FRI.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 246 PM EDT MONDAY...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOWLY RISING WATER LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN NUISANCE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING (AND THIS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE USUAL
SITES SUCH AS OYSTER/BISHOP'S HEAD). WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE NC/VA COAST,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING MINOR FLOODING IN
SOME PORTION OF THE BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND PORTIONS OF THE SE VA/NE
NC COAST DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES STARTING TUESDAY EVENING,
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND IN NE NC
(MAINLY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS INCLUDING EDENTON) WITH INCREASING SE
WINDS TUESDAY EVENING.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASES TUESDAY, WITH ALL BUT THE MD BEACHES
INTO MODERATE, AND LIKELY HIGH FOR ALL BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY AS
NEARSHORE SEAS AVERAGE 4-6 FT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AC/NB
NEAR TERM...SW/NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...SW/NB
MARINE...ERI/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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