194
FXUS61 KAKQ 270749
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
WET AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO END THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- COOL AGAIN TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING W TO E
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ~1026MB
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE CONUS, AND ~1013MB SFC
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TN. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPANSIVE, BUT
LOWER CLOUDS ARE STILL MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC
EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTH, BUT HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH WHERE ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE.
FOR TODAY, THE NEXT BATCH OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
LIGHT RAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT LATER THIS MORNING, EVENTUALLY
SPREADING EAST TO THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH
FORECAST TO DROP SE TO A POSITION OFF THE NJ/DE COAST, BUILDING
TO NEARLY 1030 MB, THIS WILL DEVELOP A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR
(CAD) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL, PERHAPS BY AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES. WITH THIS IN MIND,
HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS ONLY AROUND 60F OR THE LOWER 60S IN THE
PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-95
CORRIDOR, AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST
(PROBABLY WARMEST ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE SOME SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY). PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ENTER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES NOT TOO LONG AFTER SUNRISE, SPREADING EAST TO
THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN, REACHING TO THE
BAY AND COAST BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TODAY WILL AVERAGE 0.25" TO NEAR 0.50" IN THE PIEDMONT, BUT WILL
BE MUCH LOWER TO THE EAST, GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS ALONG
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH 00Z/8 PM. INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, SO
THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED. BY TONIGHT, AS THE PARENT SFC LOW
WEAKENS W OF THE APPALACHIANS, SECONDARY SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SC COAST, LIFTING NE INTO EASTERN
NC BY EARLY WED MORNING. THIS WILL FAVOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A FEW OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY CREEPING IN FROM THE S
AFTER 06Z, SO WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHC TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
BETWEEN 06-12Z. MOST OF THE THE CWA IS IN A MARGINAL ERO RISK
FOR TODAY, WITH THE BULK OF THIS EXPECTED TO BE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WED SINCE THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK GOES THROUGH 12Z/WED. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 50S NW TO THE LOW-MID 60S IN THE FAR
SE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 246 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC SET UP ON WEDNESDAY STILL
REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE IS COMING MORE
INTO LINE WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND
MOVING OFF THE NC COAST. THE ECMWF STILL HAS MORE OF AN OPEN
TROUGH RATHER THAN A DEFINED LOW. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THESE
TWO SCENARIOS WILL BE HOW LONG PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA BEFORE FINALLY CLEARING OUT, THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS
SUGGESTING RAINFALL WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLIER AND IS COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT SET-
UP, THE RAINFALL FORECAST IS DEPICTING WIDESPREAD 1-2" TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
RAINFALL IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. WPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, AND ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH-FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AND LOW- LYING AREAS. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION ENDS. FOR NOW, HAVE
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S SE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, AND
POSSIBLY SATURDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY- MONDAY.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA, AND ANOTHER
TROUGH ROTATING E-SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE OH
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY, AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING PHASED
WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH A SW FLOW
ALOFT REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY, THIS ALLOWS ANOTHER
SFC LOW OR TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE RAISED POPS
BACK TO HIGH CHC TO LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY WITH THIS
PATTERN, WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE. HIGHS
HAVE BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES DUE TO MORE CLOUDS. WPC
CURRENTLY PLACES NC IN A MARGINAL ERO FRIDAY, THOUGH THIS WILL
NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SETTLING IN ON A CLOSED UPPER LOW
LINGERING ACROSS THE NE CONUS AND EASTERN CANADA, WITH THE MID-
ATLANTIC POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE. WILL
HAVE A CHC FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT, BUT THE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN ON FRIDAY (HIGHEST POPS NE). THEN WILL HAVE
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST SUNDAY-MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH STAYS
N/NE AND SLOWLY MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRI-SAT, WARMING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MOST OF TODAY,
WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MOVING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER THIS MORNING, INITIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT IN THE LATE
MORNING, SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND TO THE
COAST LATER IN THE DAY. WILL GENERALLY COVER WITH PROB30 FOR NOW
(WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z WED), BUT HAVE
INCLUDED PREVAILING -SHRA AT RIC FROM 20Z ONWARD. MVFR CIGS MAY
MOVE INTO RIC AFTER ~21Z, BUT WILL TEND TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
00Z ELSEWHERE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT INCREASE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING E/ESE AT 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT AT THE COAST. RAIN AND WIDESPREAD FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY ALL AREAS NEAR THE END OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS, MOSTLY TO IFR, ARE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY DUE TO BOTH CIGS
AND VSBY. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING TO HAVE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE.
MARINE
AS OF 245 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS. A FEW
GUSTS UP TO GALE CONDITION ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
- WESTERLY WINDS BECOME ELEVATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT (HIGHEST
S). HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES NE TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
WED. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW LIFTS N ALONG THE COAST WED, DRAGGING
A WARM FRONT WITH IT. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SURFACE LOW
TO TRACK INLAND ACROSS NE NC INTO SE VA WED BEFORE LIFTING NNE ALONG
THE COAST WED EVENING. THE 925MB LLJ ALSO RAMPS UP LATE TONIGHT INTO
MIDDAY WED WITH THE GFS SHOWING A 40-45 KT LLJ AND THE NAM 12KM
SHOWING A 50 KT LLJ ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WHILE MIXING WILL
LIKELY BE POOR GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND A SATURATED PROFILE, AT
LEAST A FEW STRONGER GUSTS APPROACHING GALE CONDITIONS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL NOTE
THAT ALL OF THE CAMS AND THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A WINDOW OF
POTENTIAL GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS. HOWEVER, THE NBM (INCLUDING THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE) ARE
MUCH LOWER THAN THE 00Z DATA. AS SUCH, HAVE BLENDED HI-RES
GUIDANCE WITH THE NBM GUIDANCE TO GET E/ESE WINDS INCREASING TO
~25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO ~30 KT (A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE) BY WED. NBM PROBS FOR 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
60-70% ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WITH 90-100% PROBS
FOR 18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS. MEANWHILE, NBM PROBS FOR 34 KT GUSTS
WERE 25-30% ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND GENERALLY 30-40% ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS.
AS SUCH, SCAS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER BAY BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AT 4 PM AND FOR ALL OF THE REMAINING LOCAL WATERS (APART
FROM THE N COASTAL WATERS) BY LATER TONIGHT. SCAS GO INTO EFFECT
ACROSS THE N COASTAL WATERS WED MORNING. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH WED FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS, LINGERING THROUGH WED NIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS. IF CONFIDENCE IN
GALE CONDITIONS INCREASES, AN UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING IS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, WILL LIKELY HANDLE ANY PERIOD OF MORE ELEVATED WINDS
(PARTICULARLY IF THEY ARE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED) WITH SMWS.
WINDS BECOME NW AT LEAST 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW WED NIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLY CONTINUING UNTIL
EARLY THU MORNING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO EXTEND THE SCAS
THROUGH WED NIGHT FOR NOW. LIKEWISE, SCAS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS INTO THU.
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THU TO 5-10 KT THU WITH GENERALLY SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THU THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, WINDS MAY BECOME ELEVATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND
WITH LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THAT BEING SAID,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WAVES AND SEAS WERE AROUND 1 FOOT AND 2 FT RESPECTIVELY EARLY THIS
MORNING. WAVES AND SEAS BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND 2-4 FT RESPECTIVELY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY BUILDING TO 4-6 FT AND 5-7 FT
RESPECTIVELY BY WED. SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THU.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 246 PM EDT MONDAY...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOWLY RISING WATER LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN NUISANCE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING (AND THIS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE USUAL
SITES SUCH AS OYSTER/BISHOP'S HEAD). WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE NC/VA COAST,
THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING MINOR FLOODING IN
SOME PORTION OF THE BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND PORTIONS OF THE SE VA/NE
NC COAST DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES STARTING TUESDAY EVENING,
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND IN NE NC
(MAINLY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS INCLUDING EDENTON) WITH INCREASING SE
WINDS TUESDAY EVENING.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASES TUESDAY, WITH ALL BUT THE MD BEACHES
INTO MODERATE, AND LIKELY HIGH FOR ALL BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY AS
NEARSHORE SEAS AVERAGE 4-6 FT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/NB
AVIATION...LKB/SW
MARINE...RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
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