961
FXUS61 KAKQ 271122
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
722 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
WET AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO END THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- COOL AGAIN TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING W TO E
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ~1026MB
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE CONUS, AND ~1013MB SFC
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TN. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPANSIVE, BUT
LOWER CLOUDS ARE STILL MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC
EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTH, BUT HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH WHERE ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE.
FOR TODAY, THE NEXT BATCH OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
LIGHT RAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT LATER THIS MORNING, EVENTUALLY
SPREADING EAST TO THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH
FORECAST TO DROP SE TO A POSITION OFF THE NJ/DE COAST, BUILDING
TO NEARLY 1030 MB, THIS WILL DEVELOP A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR
(CAD) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL, PERHAPS BY AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES. WITH THIS IN MIND,
HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS ONLY AROUND 60F OR THE LOWER 60S IN THE
PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-95
CORRIDOR, AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST
(PROBABLY WARMEST ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE SOME SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY). PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ENTER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES NOT TOO LONG AFTER SUNRISE, SPREADING EAST TO
THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN, REACHING TO THE
BAY AND COAST BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TODAY WILL AVERAGE 0.25" TO NEAR 0.50" IN THE PIEDMONT, BUT WILL
BE MUCH LOWER TO THE EAST, GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS ALONG
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH 00Z/8 PM. INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, SO
THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED. BY TONIGHT, AS THE PARENT SFC LOW
WEAKENS W OF THE APPALACHIANS, SECONDARY SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SC COAST, LIFTING NE INTO EASTERN
NC BY EARLY WED MORNING. THIS WILL FAVOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A FEW OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY CREEPING IN FROM THE S
AFTER 06Z, SO WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHC TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
BETWEEN 06-12Z. MOST OF THE THE CWA IS IN A MARGINAL ERO RISK
FOR TODAY, WITH THE BULK OF THIS EXPECTED TO BE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WED SINCE THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK GOES THROUGH 12Z/WED. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 50S NW TO THE LOW-MID 60S IN THE FAR
SE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC SET UP ON WEDNESDAY STILL
REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, MAINLY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF
THE SFC LOW. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT SET-UP, ADDITIONAL MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY AFTN FOR MOST OF THE
REGION (SW PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL TEND TO SEE LESS RAIN AFTER
12Z/WED COMPARED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA). THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE WINDING DOWN LATER WED AFTN, THOUGH HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO WED EVENING.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL BE 1-2", BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN POTENTIAL
CONVECTION ON WED. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR, LIMITED LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SEVERE WX IS RATHER UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE TO DEVELOP WED, THE BEST CHC
WOULD BE ACROSS SE VA/NE NC AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH WED
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE DEPENDENT
ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION ENDS. FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80F SE.
DIMINISHING POPS WED NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS
UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S. ON THURSDAY, WE MAY BE IN A BIT OF A
SUBSIDENCE ZONES UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. WILL HAVE CHC FOR A FEW
LATE DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS, BUT THE COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LOWER
COMPARED TO TUE-WED. WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A SW FLOW,
HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, AND
POSSIBLY SATURDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY- MONDAY.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA, AND ANOTHER
TROUGH ROTATING E-SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE OH
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY, AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING PHASED
WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH A SW FLOW
ALOFT REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY, THIS ALLOWS ANOTHER
SFC LOW OR TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE RAISED POPS
BACK TO HIGH CHC TO LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY WITH THIS
PATTERN, WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE. HIGHS
HAVE BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES DUE TO MORE CLOUDS. WPC
CURRENTLY PLACES NC IN A MARGINAL ERO FRIDAY, THOUGH THIS WILL
NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SETTLING IN ON A CLOSED UPPER LOW
LINGERING ACROSS THE NE CONUS AND EASTERN CANADA, WITH THE MID-
ATLANTIC POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE. WILL
HAVE A CHC FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT, BUT THE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN ON FRIDAY (HIGHEST POPS NE). THEN WILL HAVE
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST SUNDAY-MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH STAYS
N/NE AND SLOWLY MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRI-SAT, WARMING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 700 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY AFTN,
WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS MOVING IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
LATER THIS MORNING, INITIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, SHIFTING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN, AND
TO THE COAST LATER IN THE DAY. WILL GENERALLY COVER WITH PROB30
FOR NOW (WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z WED), BUT
HAVE INCLUDED PREVAILING -SHRA AT RIC FROM 20Z ONWARD. MVFR
CIGS MAY MOVE INTO RIC AFTER ~21Z, BUT WILL TEND TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z ELSEWHERE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT INCREASE
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING E/ESE AT 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AT THE COAST. RAIN AND WIDESPREAD FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY ALL AREAS NEAR THE END OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG AND W OF I-95 AND MVFR TO IFR TO THE EAST.
OUTLOOK: RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS, MOSTLY TO IFR, ARE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY DUE TO BOTH CIGS
AND VSBY. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
FRIDAY LOOKING TO HAVE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE.
MARINE
AS OF 245 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS. A FEW GUSTS
UP TO GALE CONDITION ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
- WESTERLY WINDS BECOME ELEVATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT (HIGHEST
S). HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES NE TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
WED. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW LIFTS N ALONG THE COAST WED, DRAGGING
A WARM FRONT WITH IT. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE SURFACE LOW
TO TRACK INLAND ACROSS NE NC INTO SE VA WED BEFORE LIFTING NNE ALONG
THE COAST WED EVENING. THE 925MB LLJ ALSO RAMPS UP LATE TONIGHT INTO
MIDDAY WED WITH THE GFS SHOWING A 40-45 KT LLJ AND THE NAM 12KM
SHOWING A 50 KT LLJ ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WHILE MIXING WILL
LIKELY BE POOR GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND A SATURATED PROFILE, AT
LEAST A FEW STRONGER GUSTS APPROACHING GALE CONDITIONS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL NOTE
THAT ALL OF THE CAMS AND THE GFS AND NAM SHOW A WINDOW OF
POTENTIAL GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS. HOWEVER, THE NBM (INCLUDING THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE) ARE
MUCH LOWER THAN THE 00Z DATA. AS SUCH, HAVE BLENDED HI-RES
GUIDANCE WITH THE NBM GUIDANCE TO GET E/ESE WINDS INCREASING TO
~25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO ~30 KT (A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE) BY WED. NBM PROBS FOR 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WERE
60-70% ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WITH 90-100% PROBS
FOR 18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS. MEANWHILE, NBM PROBS FOR 34 KT GUSTS
WERE 25-30% ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND GENERALLY 30-40% ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS.
AS SUCH, SCAS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER BAY BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AT 4 PM AND FOR ALL OF THE REMAINING LOCAL WATERS (APART
FROM THE N COASTAL WATERS) BY LATER TONIGHT. SCAS GO INTO EFFECT
ACROSS THE N COASTAL WATERS WED MORNING. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH WED FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS, LINGERING THROUGH WED NIGHT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS. IF CONFIDENCE IN
GALE CONDITIONS INCREASES, AN UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING IS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, WILL LIKELY HANDLE ANY PERIOD OF MORE ELEVATED WINDS
(PARTICULARLY IF THEY ARE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED) WITH SMWS.
WINDS BECOME NW AT LEAST 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW WED NIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLY CONTINUING UNTIL
EARLY THU MORNING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO EXTEND THE SCAS
THROUGH WED NIGHT FOR NOW. LIKEWISE, SCAS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS INTO THU.
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THU TO 5-10 KT THU WITH GENERALLY SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THU THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, WINDS MAY BECOME ELEVATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND
WITH LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THAT BEING SAID,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
WAVES AND SEAS WERE AROUND 1 FOOT AND 2 FT RESPECTIVELY EARLY THIS
MORNING. WAVES AND SEAS BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND 2-4 FT RESPECTIVELY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY BUILDING TO 4-6 FT AND 5-7 FT
RESPECTIVELY BY WED. SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THU.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 440 AM EDT TUESDAY...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOWLY RISING WATER LEVELS TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN NUISANCE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING (AND THIS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE USUAL
SITES SUCH AS OYSTER/BISHOP'S HEAD). WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
NC/VA COAST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING
MINOR FLOODING IN SOME PORTION OF THE CHES BAY DURING THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE
REEVALUATED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE TIDE. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND IN NE NC (MAINLY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS INCLUDING
EDENTON) WITH INCREASING SE WINDS THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASES TODAY WITH ALL BUT THE MD
BEACHES IN A MODERATE RIP RISK (LOW FOR THE MD BEACHES). THE RIP
RISK INCREASES TO HIGH FOR ALL BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY AS
NEARSHORE SEAS AVERAGE 4-6 FT. THE RIP RISK REMAINS MODERATE-
HIGH ON THURSDAY DUE TO LINGERING SWELL AND ELEVATED SEAS,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/NB
AVIATION...LKB/SW
MARINE...RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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