504
FXUS61 KAKQ 271853
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
253 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
WET AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO END THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 330 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- COOL AGAIN TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING W TO E
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH ~1026MB
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NE CONUS, AND ~1013MB SFC
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TN. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPANSIVE, BUT
LOWER CLOUDS ARE STILL MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC
EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTH, BUT HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH WHERE ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE.
FOR TODAY, THE NEXT BATCH OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
LIGHT RAIN INTO THE PIEDMONT LATER THIS MORNING, EVENTUALLY
SPREADING EAST TO THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH
FORECAST TO DROP SE TO A POSITION OFF THE NJ/DE COAST, BUILDING
TO NEARLY 1030 MB, THIS WILL DEVELOP A WEDGE OF COOLER AIR
(CAD) ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL, PERHAPS BY AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES. WITH THIS IN MIND,
HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS ONLY AROUND 60F OR THE LOWER 60S IN THE
PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE I-95
CORRIDOR, AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST
(PROBABLY WARMEST ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE SOME SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY). PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ENTER THE
PIEDMONT COUNTIES NOT TOO LONG AFTER SUNRISE, SPREADING EAST TO
THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN, REACHING TO THE
BAY AND COAST BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TODAY WILL AVERAGE 0.25" TO NEAR 0.50" IN THE PIEDMONT, BUT WILL
BE MUCH LOWER TO THE EAST, GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS ALONG
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH 00Z/8 PM. INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, SO
THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED. BY TONIGHT, AS THE PARENT SFC LOW
WEAKENS W OF THE APPALACHIANS, SECONDARY SFC LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SC COAST, LIFTING NE INTO EASTERN
NC BY EARLY WED MORNING. THIS WILL FAVOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A FEW OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME INSTABILITY CREEPING IN FROM THE S
AFTER 06Z, SO WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHC TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
BETWEEN 06-12Z. MOST OF THE THE CWA IS IN A MARGINAL ERO RISK
FOR TODAY, WITH THE BULK OF THIS EXPECTED TO BE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WED SINCE THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK GOES THROUGH 12Z/WED. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 50S NW TO THE LOW-MID 60S IN THE FAR
SE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC SET UP ON WEDNESDAY STILL
REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, MAINLY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF
THE SFC LOW. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT SET-UP, ADDITIONAL MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY AFTN FOR MOST OF THE
REGION (SW PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL TEND TO SEE LESS RAIN AFTER
12Z/WED COMPARED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA). THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE WINDING DOWN LATER WED AFTN, THOUGH HIGH
CHC TO LIKELY POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO WED EVENING.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL BE 1-2", BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN POTENTIAL
CONVECTION ON WED. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR, LIMITED LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SEVERE WX IS RATHER UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE TO DEVELOP WED, THE BEST CHC
WOULD BE ACROSS SE VA/NE NC AS THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH WED
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE DEPENDENT
ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION ENDS. FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NW TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80F SE.
DIMINISHING POPS WED NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS
UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S. ON THURSDAY, WE MAY BE IN A BIT OF A
SUBSIDENCE ZONES UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. WILL HAVE CHC FOR A FEW
LATE DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS, BUT THE COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LOWER
COMPARED TO TUE-WED. WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A SW FLOW,
HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, AND
POSSIBLY SATURDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
SUNDAY- MONDAY.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA, AND ANOTHER
TROUGH ROTATING E-SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE OH
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY, AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING PHASED
WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH A SW FLOW
ALOFT REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY, THIS ALLOWS ANOTHER
SFC LOW OR TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE RAISED POPS
BACK TO HIGH CHC TO LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY WITH THIS
PATTERN, WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLE. HIGHS
HAVE BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES DUE TO MORE CLOUDS. WPC
CURRENTLY PLACES NC IN A MARGINAL ERO FRIDAY, THOUGH THIS WILL
NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SETTLING IN ON A CLOSED UPPER LOW
LINGERING ACROSS THE NE CONUS AND EASTERN CANADA, WITH THE MID-
ATLANTIC POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE. WILL
HAVE A CHC FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT, BUT THE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS THAN ON FRIDAY (HIGHEST POPS NE). THEN WILL HAVE
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST SUNDAY-MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH STAYS
N/NE AND SLOWLY MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRI-SAT, WARMING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 150 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES TO START OFF THE 18Z/27 TAF PERIOD.
RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS(MAINLY AFTER 21Z), HANDLED THIS WITH A
PROB30 GROUP. CIGS DIMINISH TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH RIC FIRST SEEING THE
MVFR CIGS ~22Z, AND THE COASTAL SITES SEEING THEM AFTER 00Z.
RAIN AND WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AT ALL TAF
SITES AFTER 06Z WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH
IFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND W OF I-95 AND MVFR TO IFR TO THE EAST.
IFR CIGS SPREAD TO THE COAST AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
AM. IN ADDITION, HEAVIER SHOWERS (AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS)
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WEDNESDAY AM THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: RAIN AND DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS, MOSTLY TO IFR,
ARE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY DUE TO BOTH
CIGS AND VSBY. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE EACH
DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH FRIDAY LOOKING TO HAVE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS. A
FEW GUSTS UP TO GALE CONDITION ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
- WESTERLY WINDS BECOME ELEVATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COASTAL
WATERS. ONSHORE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK IN SPEED SLIGHTLY, WITH
10-15KT AND GUSTS TO 20KT BEING REPORTED ALONG THE BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS. HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A SURFACE LOW
WILL PULL A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD OUT OF NC TOWARDS THE VA BORDER. THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME 20-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KT WEDNESDAY MORNING, PERSISTING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD, GENERALLY BETWEEN 12Z/8AM TO 18Z/2PM
WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 34KT/GALE FORCE IN A FEW SPOTS. TAKING
A LOOK AT THE LATEST WIND PROBABILITIES SHOWS ONLY AN ISOLATED
40% CHANCE FOR TWO HOURS IN THE SOUTHERN BAY, AND A 45% CHANCE
FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM VIRGINIA BEACH TO
PARRAMORE ISLAND. WITH IT BEING SUCH A SHORT AND MORE SCATTERED
THREAT, OPTED TO KEEP THE HEADLINES AS HIGH-END SCA FOR NOW,
WITH THE WORDING OF "A FEW GUSTS TO 34 KT POSSIBLE" INCLUDED.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES THROUGH CLOSER TO
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON, SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY COULD
BECOME CONVECTIVE. IF THIS OCCURS, STRONGER GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS IT PASSES THROUGH. THESE WOULD BE HANDLED WITH SMW
PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.
SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAY NOW AS WINDS HAVE PICKED UP,
GRADUALLY ADDING THE REST OF THE BAY, LOWER JAMES, RIVERS, AND SOUND
OVERNIGHT, THEN THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WAVES IN THE
BAY WILL INCREASE TO 3-4FT NORTH, WITH SOME 5FT WAVES LIKELY IN THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7FT, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE
SCAS TO LINGER FOR THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THURSDAY.
WINDS LOOK TO SUBSIDE AND BECOME MORE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS OF 5-10KT (A FEW GUSTS TO 15KT), AND
MOST RAIN CHANCES BEING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WAVES WILL BE 1-2FT INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND, WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN 2-3FT TO END THE WEEK.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
WHICH COULD HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS LOW FOR NOW.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOWLY RISING WATER LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY.
NOTHING MORE THAN NUISANCE FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE USUAL SITES SUCH AS OYSTER/BISHOP'S
HEAD, AS WELL AS LEWISETTA AND POSSIBLE TAPPAHANNOCK. WHILE
THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE NC/VA COAST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING MINOR FLOODING IN THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CHES BAY DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND IN NE NC (MAINLY FOR
WESTERN PORTIONS INCLUDING EDENTON) WITH INCREASING SE WINDS
THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS
TO DECIDE IF ANY HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASES TO HIGH FOR ALL BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY
AS NEARSHORE SEAS AVERAGE 4-6 FT. THE RIP RISK REMAINS MODERATE-HIGH
ON THURSDAY DUE TO LINGERING SWELL AND ELEVATED SEAS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO END THE
WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/NB
AVIATION...AJB/LKB
MARINE...JKP/RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JKP/RMM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page