439
FXUS61 KAKQ 280146
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
946 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
WET AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND
LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
POTENTIALLY CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 945 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- REMAINING COOL TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING, ALLOWING FOR A WEDGE OF COOL AIR TO PERSIST OVER THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE TN VALLEY, WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY WEDGE FRONT EXTENDING SE OF THE LOW INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUNNEL ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING, THOUGH RADAR TRENDS AND CAMS INDIDICATE
A LULL IN THE STEADIER PRECIP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CHILLY AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 50S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA, WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SE.
BY TONIGHT, AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WEAKENS W OF THE APPALACHIANS,
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SC COAST,
LIFTING NE INTO EASTERN NC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
FAVOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY AM. MOST OF THE CWA IS IN A MARGINAL ERO RISK, BUT THE
BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AM
SINCE THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK GOES THROUGH 12Z/WEDNESDAY. SOME MEAGER
INSTABILITY ALSO BEGINS TO SNEAK IN AS LOW-LEVEL THETA-E
INCREASES. THUS, A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BY 10-12Z/6-8
AM, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA (THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER). LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW- MID 50S NW TO
THE LOW- MID 60S IN THE FAR SE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY.
- DRIER AND WARMER ON THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION (SW PORTIONS OF THE FA
WILL TEND TO SEE LESS RAIN AFTER 12Z/WED COMPARED TO THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA). THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE WINDING DOWN
LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 1-
2", WITH AN AXIS OF LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WPC HAS PLACED A DAY 2 MARGINAL ERO ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR, LIMITED LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS RATHER
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY, THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ACROSS
SE VA/NE NC AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
REMAINING COOL ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA, TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH. DIMINISHING POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S. THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE DRIER AND WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (70S EASTERN SHORE). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS OF
THURSDAY, BUT LESS IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, AND POSSIBLY
SATURDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY- MONDAY.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA, AND ANOTHER TROUGH
ROTATING E-SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY, AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING PHASED WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY, THIS ALLOWS ANOTHER SFC LOW OR TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SETTLING IN
ON A CLOSED UPPER LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NE CONUS AND EASTERN
CANADA, WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE. WILL HAVE A CHC FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT, BUT THE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN ON FRIDAY (HIGHEST POPS NE). THEN WILL
HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
TROUGH STAYS N/NE AND SLOWLY MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OR 60S.
ALL SIGNS POINT TO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WEATHER ON THE HORIZON AS WE
HEAD MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 755 PM EDT TUESDAY...
GRADUALLY DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. CIGS HAVE DROPPED TO IFR ACROSS THE PIEDMONT,
THOUGH THESE OBS ARE STILL S AND W OF THE TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS
ARE LOCATED FURTHER TO THE E. OUTSIDE OF INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS
AT RIC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF VA AND NC, INCLUDING TO THE
COASTAL TERMINALS, BY 10-14Z. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO AT RIC TO
COVER ANY LOWERING THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/RAIN THIS EVENING MAY TEMPORARILY SCATTER OUT FOR A BIT
IN THE 02-05Z TIMEFRAME. SHOWERS THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN
AFTER 06Z, ESPECIALLY N OF THE NC/VA BORDER, WITH LOWERING
VSBYS AS WELL. IN ADDITION, HEAVIER SHOWERS (AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS) MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS WEDNESDAY
AM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AN INITIAL
BATCH 10-15Z OR SO AND ANOTHER BATCH IN THE AFTERNOON (18-22Z)
AS SHOWERS/STORMS POTENTIALLY REDEVELOP. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
EXACT TIMING, WILL COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR
NOW. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
PERIOD, BUT DEGRADED FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF
WEDNESDAY.
5-10 KT E-NE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KT AFTER SUNRISE. ALONG THE COAST, WINDS COULD REACH
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MID-LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: WHILE RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LINGERING
SFC MOISTURE LIKELY LEADS TO CONTINUING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND
IFR CIGS, WITH MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG. DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH FRIDAY LOOKING TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS. A
FEW GUSTS UP TO GALE CONDITION ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
- WESTERLY WINDS BECOME ELEVATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COASTAL
WATERS. ONSHORE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK IN SPEED SLIGHTLY, WITH
10-15KT AND GUSTS TO 20KT BEING REPORTED ALONG THE BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS. HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A SURFACE LOW
WILL PULL A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD OUT OF NC TOWARDS THE VA BORDER. THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO RAMP UP LATE TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME 20-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KT WEDNESDAY MORNING, PERSISTING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD, GENERALLY BETWEEN 12Z/8AM TO 18Z/2PM
WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 34KT/GALE FORCE IN A FEW SPOTS. TAKING
A LOOK AT THE LATEST WIND PROBABILITIES SHOWS ONLY AN ISOLATED
40% CHANCE FOR TWO HOURS IN THE SOUTHERN BAY, AND A 45% CHANCE
FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM VIRGINIA BEACH TO
PARRAMORE ISLAND. WITH IT BEING SUCH A SHORT AND MORE SCATTERED
THREAT, OPTED TO KEEP THE HEADLINES AS HIGH-END SCA FOR NOW,
WITH THE WORDING OF "A FEW GUSTS TO 34 KT POSSIBLE" INCLUDED.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES THROUGH CLOSER TO
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON, SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY COULD
BECOME CONVECTIVE. IF THIS OCCURS, STRONGER GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS IT PASSES THROUGH. THESE WOULD BE HANDLED WITH SMW
PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.
SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAY NOW AS WINDS HAVE PICKED UP,
GRADUALLY ADDING THE REST OF THE BAY, LOWER JAMES, RIVERS, AND SOUND
OVERNIGHT, THEN THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WAVES IN THE
BAY WILL INCREASE TO 3-4FT NORTH, WITH SOME 5FT WAVES LIKELY IN THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-7FT, WHICH WILL CAUSE THE
SCAS TO LINGER FOR THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THURSDAY.
WINDS LOOK TO SUBSIDE AND BECOME MORE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS OF 5-10KT (A FEW GUSTS TO 15KT), AND
MOST RAIN CHANCES BEING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WAVES WILL BE 1-2FT INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND, WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN 2-3FT TO END THE WEEK.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
WHICH COULD HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS LOW FOR NOW.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 245 PM EDT TUESDAY...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOWLY RISING WATER LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY.
NOTHING MORE THAN NUISANCE FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE USUAL SITES SUCH AS OYSTER/BISHOP'S
HEAD, AS WELL AS LEWISETTA AND POSSIBLE TAPPAHANNOCK. WHILE
THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE NC/VA COAST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING MINOR FLOODING IN THE NORTHERN/EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CHES BAY DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND IN NE NC (MAINLY FOR
WESTERN PORTIONS INCLUDING EDENTON) WITH INCREASING SE WINDS
THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS
TO DECIDE IF ANY HEADLINES ARE NEEDED.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASES TO HIGH FOR ALL BEACHES BY WEDNESDAY
AS NEARSHORE SEAS AVERAGE 4-6 FT. THE RIP RISK REMAINS MODERATE-HIGH
ON THURSDAY DUE TO LINGERING SWELL AND ELEVATED SEAS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO END THE
WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB/SW
SHORT TERM...AJB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...JKP/RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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