395
FXUS61 KAKQ 280702
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
302 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
WET AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL CONTINUE TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT, FOLLOWED
BY DRY CONDITIONS CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 945 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- REMAINING COOL TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING, ALLOWING FOR A WEDGE OF COOL AIR TO PERSIST OVER THE
AREA. LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE TN VALLEY, WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY WEDGE FRONT EXTENDING SE OF THE LOW INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUNNEL ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING, THOUGH RADAR TRENDS AND CAMS INDICATE A
LULL IN THE STEADIER PRECIP FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN CHILLY AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SE.
BY TONIGHT, AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WEAKENS W OF THE APPALACHIANS,
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SC COAST,
LIFTING NE INTO EASTERN NC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
FAVOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY AM. MOST OF THE CWA IS IN A MARGINAL ERO RISK, BUT THE
BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AM
SINCE THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK GOES THROUGH 12Z/WEDNESDAY. SOME MEAGER
INSTABILITY ALSO BEGINS TO SNEAK IN AS LOW-LEVEL THETA-E
INCREASES. THUS, A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BY 10-12Z/6-8
AM, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA (THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDER HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER). LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW- MID 50S NW TO
THE LOW- MID 60S IN THE FAR SE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY.
- DRIER AND WARMER ON THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION (SW PORTIONS OF THE FA
WILL TEND TO SEE LESS RAIN AFTER 12Z/WED COMPARED TO THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA). THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE WINDING DOWN
LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 1-
2", WITH AN AXIS OF LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WPC HAS PLACED A DAY 2 MARGINAL ERO ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DESPITE STRONG SHEAR, LIMITED LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS RATHER
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. IF ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY, THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ACROSS
SE VA/NE NC AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
REMAINING COOL ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA, TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH. DIMINISHING POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS UPPER 50S TO LOW-MID 60S. THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE DRIER AND WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (70S EASTERN SHORE). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS OF
THURSDAY, BUT LESS IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, AND POSSIBLY
SATURDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY- MONDAY.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA, AND ANOTHER TROUGH
ROTATING E-SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARDS THE OH VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY, AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING PHASED WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER
LOW INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY, THIS ALLOWS ANOTHER SFC LOW OR TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SETTLING IN
ON A CLOSED UPPER LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NE CONUS AND EASTERN
CANADA, WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THIS FEATURE. WILL HAVE A CHC FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT, BUT THE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN ON FRIDAY (HIGHEST POPS NE). THEN WILL
HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
TROUGH STAYS N/NE AND SLOWLY MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S OR 60S.
ALL SIGNS POINT TO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WEATHER ON THE HORIZON AS WE
HEAD MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HAD A BREAK IN THE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVER THE
PAST FEW HRS, BUT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS, ALONG WITH GRADUALLY DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. EXPECT IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD ALL VA
AND NC TERMINALS, BETWEEN 08-10Z AT RIC, AND BETWEEN 10-14Z FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO AT RIC TO COVER ANY
LOWERING THROUGH 08Z. HEAVIER SHOWERS (AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS) MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS LATER THIS
MORNING, WITH AN INITIAL BATCH 10-15Z OR SO AND ANOTHER BATCH
IN THE AFTERNOON (18-22Z) AS SHOWERS/STORMS POTENTIALLY
REDEVELOP. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING, WILL COVER THIS
POTENTIAL WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW. E-SE WINDS INCREASE TO
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AFTER SUNRISE. ALONG THE COAST,
WINDS COULD REACH 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO THE CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTN, AND HAVE
TAFS GENERALLY SHOWING CIGS RISING TO MVFR BY LATER AFTN/EARLY
EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE W-SW. WHILE RAIN
CHANCES ARE LOW BY THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, LINGERING SFC
MOISTURE LIKELY LEADS TO CONTINUING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. IN
FACT, CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER BACK DOWN TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR
OVERNIGHT, WITH MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT A LOWER COVERAGE FOR MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS THURSDAY, WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FRI
AFTN/EVENING WHERE SHOWERS WOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WOULD LAST LONGER. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT, THEN DRY SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS TODAY DUE TO ELEVATED E/SE WINDS. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35
KT ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
- WESTERLY WINDS BECOME ELEVATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS
WERE GENERALLY E 10-15 KT ACROSS THE N WATERS AND 15-20 KT ACROSS
THE S WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW LIFTS NNE ACROSS INLAND AREAS
TODAY, DRAGGING A WARM FRONT N WITH IT. THE 925MB LLJ ALSO RAMPS UP
TO 40-45 KT BY LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MIXING WILL
LIKELY BE POOR GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND A SATURATED PROFILE, AT
LEAST A FEW STRONGER GUSTS APPROACHING GALE CONDITIONS SEEMS
PROBABLE, PARTICULARLY IN STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH WINDS AND NOW SHOWS E/ESE
WINDS BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 25-27 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-34
KT BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF 35 KT
GUSTS IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE CHES BAY, COASTAL
WATERS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER, AND POTENTIALLY THE YORK RIVER AND
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MARGINAL TEMPORAL DURATION (3
TO MAYBE 4 HOURS) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SURGE TO 35 KT (OR
HIGHER) TO BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN, HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON GALE
WARNINGS. INSTEAD, WILL KEEP THE HIGH-END SCA WORDING AND LIKELY
HANDLE ANY PERIOD OF HIGHER GUSTS WITH SMWS.
NBM PROBS FOR 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 70-90% ACROSS MOST OF THE
CHES BAY AND THE VA COASTAL WATERS WITH ~100% PROBS FOR 18 KT
SUSTAINED WINDS EVERYWHERE. MEANWHILE, NBM PROBS FOR 34 KT GUSTS
WERE GENERALLY 40-55% ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND VA COASTAL WATERS.
WIND PROBS WERE LOWER ACROSS THE MD AND NC COASTAL WATERS. AS SUCH,
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. SCAS
LINGER INTO EARLY THU ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED
SEAS. WAVES AND SEAS WERE 2-4 FT EARLY THIS MORNING (HIGHEST ACROSS
THE S WATERS). WAVES AND SEAS EVENTUALLY BUILD TO 4-6 FT AND 5-7 FT
RESPECTIVELY LATER TODAY. SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THU.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
MOVES FARTHER AWAY, BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
THU TO 5-10 KT THU WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THU THROUGH
THE FRI. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FRI WITH A
PERIOD OF ELEVATED W WINDS INCREASING LIKELY BEHIND IT. AS SUCH,
SCAS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SURGE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS SUN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 955 PM EDT TUESDAY...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOWLY RISING WATER LEVELS OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. NOTHING MORE THAN NUISANCE FLOODING IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS UPCOMING TIDE CYCLE AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
USUAL SITES SUCH AS OYSTER/BISHOP'S HEAD, AS WELL AS LEWISETTA
AND POSSIBLE TAPPAHANNOCK. WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE NC/VA
COAST, THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING MINOR
FLOODING IN THE NORTHERN/EASTERN PORTION OF THE CHES BAY DURING
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND IN NE NC (MAINLY FOR WESTERN PORTIONS INCLUDING
EDENTON) WITH INCREASING SE WINDS THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS TO DECIDE IF ANY HEADLINES
ARE NEEDED.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASES TO HIGH FOR ALL BEACHES FOR
TOMORROW, AS NEARSHORE SEAS AVERAGE 3-6 FT. THE RIP RISK
REMAINS MODERATE-HIGH ON THURSDAY DUE TO LINGERING SWELL AND
ELEVATED SEAS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO END THE WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ654-656-
658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB/SW
SHORT TERM...AJB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/SW
MARINE...RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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