824
FXUS61 KAKQ 280824
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
424 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
WET AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS PREVAIL CONTINUE TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- REMAINING RELATIVELY COOL TODAY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, LINGERING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES THE PARENT SURFACE LOW WEAKENING
ACROSS KY/TN, W OF THE APPALACHIANS, WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW NOW
LOCATED ACROSS SE NC, WITH AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING N
INTO CENTRAL NC AND SOUTHERN VA. STARTING TO SEE SOME MODERATE
TO HEAVIER RAIN LIFTING NE FROM SOUTHERN NC, WITH ANOTHER BATCH
PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL VA. SOME MEAGER
INSTABILITY ALSO STARTING TO SNEAK IN AS LOW- LEVEL THETA-E
INCREASES OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS, BUT THIS WOULD JUST BE ELEVATED
THUNDER IF ANY DOES OCCUR, MAINLY AFTER SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES
RANGE THROUGH THE 50S NW WITH 60S IN THE SE.
ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS MOST LIKELY DURING THE
MID-LATE MORNING HRS, THOUGH WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTN TO THE E OF I-95, AIDED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE 1- 2", WITH AN AXIS OF LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WPC MAINTAINS A
DAY 1 MARGINAL ERO ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DESPITE
STRONG SHEAR, LIMITED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS RATHER UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ANY ISOLATED STORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTN
ACROSS THE SE, ESPECIALLY IF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE TO
DEVELOP AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH INTO AFTERNOON. REMAINING COOL
FOR MOST TODAY, THOUGH HIGHS MAY APPROACH NEAR 80F IN THE SE,
WITH 60S ACROSS THE ERN SHORE AND MOST OF THE PIEDMONT.
DIMINISHING POPS THIS EVENING, THOUGH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG AND OR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE 50S W TO THE LOW 60S SE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY DRY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY.
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE DRIER AND WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS,
THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
EARLY IN THE DAY. DO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY SKY
DEVELOPING, ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR NORMAL, IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON- EVENING HOURS OF THURSDAY (POPS ONLY 20-30%).
THE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY (LOOSELY ASSOCIATED AROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA). AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS WHILE TRACKING NE FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO PA/NY
STATE ON FRIDAY. WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY, AMPLE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP,
ALONG WITH STRONG H7-H5 WINDS. CURRENTLY, THE LOCAL AREA IS
MAINLY IN A MARGINAL SVR RISK WITH A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT RISK
CLIPPING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS INTO OUR INTERIOR NE NC ZONES.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND
AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS, CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL. AFTN/EARLY EVENING POPS ARE IN THE 70-80% THROUGHOUT THE
CWA. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 355 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY, THEN TURNING MAINLY DRY
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SETTLING IN ON A CLOSED UPPER
LOW LINGERING ACROSS THE NE CONUS AND EASTERN CANADA, WITH THE
MID-ATLANTIC POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FEATURE.
WILL HAVE A CHC FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT, BUT THE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN ON FRIDAY (HIGHEST POPS NE). THERE ARE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO SUNDAY, WITH SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWING ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SE WHICH WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS. FOR NOW, THE NBM WAS FOLLOWED, WHICH YIELDS
SLIGHT CHC( 15-20% POPS) SUNDAY. THEREAFTER, THE PATTERN IS FOR
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST,
THOUGH SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW SOME UPPER TROUGHINESS
LINGERING ACROSS THE SE CONUS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
MONDAY- TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HAD A BREAK IN THE STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVER THE
PAST FEW HRS, BUT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS, ALONG WITH GRADUALLY DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. EXPECT IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD ALL VA
AND NC TERMINALS, BETWEEN 08-10Z AT RIC, AND BETWEEN 10-14Z FOR
COASTAL TERMINALS. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO AT RIC TO COVER ANY
LOWERING THROUGH 08Z. HEAVIER SHOWERS (AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS) MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS LATER THIS
MORNING, WITH AN INITIAL BATCH 10-15Z OR SO AND ANOTHER BATCH
IN THE AFTERNOON (18-22Z) AS SHOWERS/STORMS POTENTIALLY
REDEVELOP. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING, WILL COVER THIS
POTENTIAL WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW. E-SE WINDS INCREASE TO
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AFTER SUNRISE. ALONG THE COAST,
WINDS COULD REACH 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO THE CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTN, AND HAVE
TAFS GENERALLY SHOWING CIGS RISING TO MVFR BY LATER AFTN/EARLY
EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE W-SW. WHILE RAIN
CHANCES ARE LOW BY THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, LINGERING SFC
MOISTURE LIKELY LEADS TO CONTINUING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. IN
FACT, CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER BACK DOWN TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR
OVERNIGHT, WITH MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT A LOWER COVERAGE FOR MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS THURSDAY, WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FRI
AFTN/EVENING WHERE SHOWERS WOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WOULD LAST LONGER. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT, THEN DRY SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS TODAY DUE TO ELEVATED E/SE WINDS. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35
KT ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
- WESTERLY WINDS BECOME ELEVATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS
WERE GENERALLY E 10-15 KT ACROSS THE N WATERS AND 15-20 KT ACROSS
THE S WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW LIFTS NNE ACROSS INLAND AREAS
TODAY, DRAGGING A WARM FRONT N WITH IT. THE 925MB LLJ ALSO RAMPS UP
TO 40-45 KT BY LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MIXING WILL
LIKELY BE POOR GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND A SATURATED PROFILE, AT
LEAST A FEW STRONGER GUSTS APPROACHING GALE CONDITIONS SEEMS
PROBABLE, PARTICULARLY IN STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH WINDS AND NOW SHOWS E/ESE
WINDS BECOMING SE AND INCREASING TO 25-27 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-34
KT BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF 35 KT
GUSTS IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ACROSS THE CHES BAY, COASTAL
WATERS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER, AND POTENTIALLY THE YORK RIVER AND
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVER. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MARGINAL TEMPORAL DURATION (3
TO MAYBE 4 HOURS) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SURGE TO 35 KT (OR
HIGHER) TO BE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN, HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON GALE
WARNINGS. INSTEAD, WILL KEEP THE HIGH-END SCA WORDING AND LIKELY
HANDLE ANY PERIOD OF HIGHER GUSTS WITH SMWS.
NBM PROBS FOR 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 70-90% ACROSS MOST OF THE
CHES BAY AND THE VA COASTAL WATERS WITH ~100% PROBS FOR 18 KT
SUSTAINED WINDS EVERYWHERE. MEANWHILE, NBM PROBS FOR 34 KT GUSTS
WERE GENERALLY 40-55% ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND VA COASTAL WATERS.
WIND PROBS WERE LOWER ACROSS THE MD AND NC COASTAL WATERS. AS SUCH,
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. SCAS
LINGER INTO EARLY THU ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED
SEAS. WAVES AND SEAS WERE 2-4 FT EARLY THIS MORNING (HIGHEST ACROSS
THE S WATERS). WAVES AND SEAS EVENTUALLY BUILD TO 4-6 FT AND 5-7 FT
RESPECTIVELY LATER TODAY. SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THU.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
MOVES FARTHER AWAY, BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
THU TO 5-10 KT THU WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THU THROUGH
THE FRI. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FRI WITH A
PERIOD OF ELEVATED W WINDS INCREASING LIKELY BEHIND IT. AS SUCH,
SCAS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SURGE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DROPS S ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS SUN WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD IN BEHIND IT. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 425 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLOWLY RISING WATER LEVELS INTO THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, NOTHING MORE THAN NUISANCE FLOODING IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE AND WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE USUAL SITES SUCH AS OYSTER/BISHOP'S HEAD AS
WELL AS LEWISETTA AND CRISFIELD. WHILE YESTERDAY EVENING'S HIGH
TIDES UNDERPERFORMED, THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WITH WINDS
INCREASING AND BECOMING MORE SE LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, ENOUGH WATER WILL GET PUSHED INTO THE UPPER BAY TO
POTENTIALLY CAUSE TIDAL GAUGES TO APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE. THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE IS LOW. AS
SUCH, WILL WAIT FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO REEVALUATE HOW THE WINDS
AND TIDES ARE PERFORMING THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE POTENTIALLY
ISSUING ANY COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES.
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY FOR ALL BEACHES GIVEN, NEARSHORE
SEAS OF 3-6 FT. THE RIP RISK REMAINS MODERATE- HIGH ON THURSDAY
DUE TO LINGERING ONSHORE SWELL AND ELEVATED SEAS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ654-656-
658.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/SW
MARINE...RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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