325
FXUS61 KAKQ 290655
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
255 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR DAMMING GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 1055 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRYING OUT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS
INCREASE, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK ~1016MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER E
VA AS OF THIS WRITING. WEAK 1025+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH REMNANT CAD WEDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH THE WEDGE FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE
CAROLINAS. PLENTY OF LOW TO MID CLOUDS LINGER IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION AT THIS HOUR, THOUGH SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF
WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
MAINTAINED A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO THROUGH ABOUT 02Z OR SO,
BUT OTHERWISE, DRYING OUT. DESPITE THE DRYING ALOFT AND PARTIAL
CLEARING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, A CONTINUED MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE REGION WILL AGAIN BE CONDUCTIVE TO LOW
STRATUS RECURRING OVERNIGHT, WITH PATCHY LOW FOG ALSO EXPECTED
WHERE CLEARING CAN HANG ON THE LONGEST, MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT GIVEN LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. EARLY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 50S NW TO THE LOW 60S
ACROSS SE/E.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY..
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON
(HIGHEST COVERAGE SOUTH).
- HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE DRIER AND WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS,
THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
EARLY IN THE DAY. DO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A PARTLY SUNNY SKY
DEVELOPING, ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR NORMAL, IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF I-64 AND ESPECIALLY NEAR/ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND IN NC WHERE WE HAVE 40-50% POPS. CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW, MAINLY ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND, WHERE SPC HAS US HIGHLIGHTED FOR IN DAY 2
MARGINAL RISK. MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE A LOW-END DAMAGING
WIND THREAT FOR THESE FAR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
THE MODELS STILL REMAIN IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT
POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY (LOOSELY ASSOCIATED AROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA). AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS WHILE TRACKING NE FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO PA/NY
STATE ON FRIDAY. WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL AREA
FRIDAY, AMPLE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (POTENTIALLY 1500 TO 2000+ J/KG
OF MLCAPE) IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP, ALONG WITH STRONG H7-H5 WINDS.
CURRENTLY, THE LOCAL AREA IS MAINLY IN A DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK WITH A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT RISK CLIPPING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS INTO OUR
INTERIOR NE NC ZONES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED GIVEN THE
STRONG DYNAMICS AND AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS, CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND, LARGE HAIL, AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. SOME OF THE
EARLY CAM RUNS SUCH AS THE 12Z 3KM NAM HINT AT A WEAK WARM FRONT OR
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN AN INCREASED SEVERE WEATHER OR TORNADO POTENTIAL. AFTERNOON-
EVENING POPS ARE IN THE 70-80% THROUGHOUT THE CWA. IN ADDITION, WENT
AHEAD AND ADDED THUNDERSTORMS WORDING TO THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVEN THE AMPLE INSTABILITY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. RAIN/STORM CHANCES DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 50S, WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE SE.
BY SATURDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW LINGERS OFF TO OUR N/NE ON SATURDAY
LEADING TO DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. POPS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
ALONG/NORTH OF I-64 (~50-60% POPS). HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-
MID 70S N TO THE UPPER 70S-AROUND 80 SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO SUNDAY, WITH
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SE WHICH WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. THE NBM WAS FOLLOWED, WHICH YIELDS
SLIGHT CHC( 15-20% POPS) SUNDAY. THEREAFTER, THE PATTERN IS FOR AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST,
THOUGH SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW SOME UPPER TROUGHINESS
LINGERING ACROSS THE SE CONUS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 746 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WHILE ALL OF THE RAIN HAS FINALLY SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS, LOWERED CIGS AND POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF BR AT ALL TERMINALS ASIDE FROM ECG, WHERE WE
HAVE JUST KEPT LOWERED CIGS FOR NOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT FROM THE WNW OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT COULD PICK UP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
LOCATION, HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT A LOWER COVERAGE FOR MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS THURSDAY, WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FRI
AFTN/EVENING WHERE SHOWERS WOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS BE MORE PERSISTENT. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 255 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO LINGERING SEAS.
- WESTERLY WINDS BECOME ELEVATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH SCAS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WEAK SURFACE HIGH MOVING
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS BEHIND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS HIGH
LINGERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI. AS
SUCH, NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM 10-15 KT EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING, BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA, SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 4-
6 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT LATER
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE S COASTAL WATERS AND BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE N COASTAL WATERS. AS SUCH, SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS.
A WARM FRONT QUICKLY LIFTS N ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRI,
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME S 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY
FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME SW 15-20 KT FRI EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BECOMING W WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT BEHIND
THE FRONT FRI NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SAT, WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ELEVATED WINDS MAY LINGER INTO SAT NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WIND PROBS FOR
18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 90-95% ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FRI NIGHT WITH WIND PROBS FOR 25 KT GUSTS OF 60-75% (LOCALLY
UP TO 90%). ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GALE CONDITIONS AS
WELL WITH WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT GUSTS OF 30-45% FRI NIGHT. AS SUCH,
SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY AND POTENTIALLY
MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THIS SURGE. ADDITIONALLY,
SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE FRI
AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS (>34 KT) AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF GENERALLY
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS INTO THIS EVENING ALLOWING WATER LEVELS TO
RISE, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN BAY AND ALONG THE RAPPAHANNOCK
RIVER. THE TIDES LAST EVENING/THIS MORNING UNDERPERFORMED, BUT
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE SINCE THE
WINDS BECAME MUCH STRONGER TODAY, POTENTIALLY PUSHING MORE WATER
INTO THE MIDDLE AND NORTHERN BAY. BISHOPS HEAD AND LEWISETTA WILL BE
THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR ANY KIND OF FLOODING THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
GENERALLY EXPECTING THAT THERE SHOULDN'T BE ANYTHING MORE THAN
NUISANCE FLOODING DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT AND BECOME LIGHTER AND WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WATER LEVELS TO GRADUALLY RETURN TO NORMAL.
THE RIP RISK REMAINS MODERATE ON THURSDAY DUE TO LINGERING
ONSHORE SWELL AND ELEVATED SEAS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BEACHES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ654-
656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...JKP/NB
MARINE...RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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