751
FXUS61 KAKQ 290755
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
355 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR DAMMING GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EARLY BUT NO RAIN, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTN/HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES OCCUR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK ~1015 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
COAST OF DE/SOUTHERN NJ, WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOW WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE REGION. ALOFT, SW FLOW PREVAILS LOCALLY AS A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION AND
WEAK RIDGING OFF THE SE US COAST. THE CAD WEDGE FROM YESTERDAY
HAS WEAKENED, THOUGH A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER
THE CWA. WHILE WE ARE RAIN- FREE THIS MORNING, LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ARE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F, AND WILL NOT DROP
MORE THAN ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH SUNRISE.
FOR TODAY, THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW (ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA),
DROPS S, AND ABSORBS THE MIDWEST UPPER LOW, DEVELOPING SFC LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR WEST, AND SHIFTING THIS INTO THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT. WITH A LOT OF CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN, INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE QUITE WEAK TODAY, SO THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL TEND TO LEAD
TO MAINLY JUST SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS BY LATE
THIS AFTN. DO ANTICIPATE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY THE AFTN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE WHERE SOME MODEST INSTABILITY GETS
GOING (ML CAPE TO ~500 J/KG). AS SUCH, A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KT. SPC HAS NC
IN A MARGINAL SVR RISK (FOR WIND) AS THIS WILL CO-LOCATE WITH AT
LEAST SOME MODEST INSTABILITY. FARTHER N, IN VA AND MD, IT
APPEARS TOO STABLE FOR MUCH OF A SVR THREAT (IF CLOUDS DO BREAK
OUT MORE THAN EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES OVERPERFORM, THEN
PERHAPS A MARGINAL RISK WOULD EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN VA. WITH THE
CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, AND THE ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS FROM
THE W BY LATER AFTN, HIGHS HAVE TRENDED DOWN A FEW DEGREES,
THOUGH IT WILL BE WARMER FOR MOST AREAS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH A FEW LOWER
80S POSSIBLE ACROSS NE NC. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE ACTUALLY
EXPECTED THIS EVENING (POPS 40-50%), SHIFTING TO THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WARM TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 340 AM EDT THURSDAY..
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY, WITH A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE MODELS STILL REMAIN IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY, AS THE CORE OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. SE THROUGH CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON BAY CANADA). AS THIS OCCURS, A STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENS WHILE TRACKING NE FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO PA.MD
FRI AFTN/EVENING. WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY, AND ASSUMING A DRY PERIOD FRI MORNING OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM, AMPLE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (1000+ J/KG
OF MLCAPE) IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP, ALONG WITH STRONG H7-H5
WINDS IN THE FAST MOVING SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS,
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND, LARGE HAIL, AND EVEN ISOLATED
TORNADOES. CURRENTLY, MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA IS IN A DAY 2
SLIGHT RISK, FOR 15% PROBS FOR BOTH WIND AND HAIL, WITH A 2%
TOR THREAT OUTLINED MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL VA COUNTIES
(TO THE S AND SW OF RIC). THE CAM RUNS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT
DIVERGENT, BUT THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR A BROKEN LINE OR LINE OF
STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO BE TRACKING W TO E INTO THE EVENING,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE CELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE
LINE. EXPECT RATHER LOW MORNING POPS, FOLLOWED BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON- EVENING POPS ARE INTO THE 70-80% RANGE THROUGHOUT
THE CWA. WE ARE ALSO IN A MARGINAL ERO OUTLOOK FOR ALL VA AND
NC ZONES, IN PART DUE TO THE RECENT WET SPELL. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WARMEST SE.
RAIN/STORM CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE 50S, WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SE.
BY SATURDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW LINGERS OFF TO OUR N/NE ON SATURDAY
LEADING TO DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE INTO
THE 6.5C TO 7C RANGE SAT AFTN SO SOME STRONGER STORMS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST, FOR NOW, THE ENTIRE AREA IS
IN A DAY 3 MARGINAL SVR RISK. POPS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
ALONG/NORTH OF I-64 (~50-60% POPS). HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW- MID 70S N TO THE UPPER 70S-AROUND 80 SE. FINALLY DRYING OUT
SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO SUNDAY, WITH
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SE WHICH WOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. THE NBM WAS FOLLOWED, WHICH YIELDS
SLIGHT CHC( 15-20% POPS) SUNDAY. THEREAFTER, THE PATTERN IS FOR AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE MIDWEST,
THOUGH SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW SOME UPPER TROUGHINESS
LINGERING ACROSS THE SE CONUS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 746 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WHILE ALL OF THE RAIN HAS FINALLY SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS, LOWERED CIGS AND POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION OF BR AT ALL TERMINALS ASIDE FROM ECG, WHERE WE
HAVE JUST KEPT LOWERED CIGS FOR NOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO
IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT FROM THE WNW OVERNIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT COULD PICK UP IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
LOCATION, HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF CONVECTION FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT A LOWER COVERAGE FOR MAINLY LATE AFTN/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS THURSDAY, WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FRI
AFTN/EVENING WHERE SHOWERS WOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS BE MORE PERSISTENT. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 255 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO LINGERING SEAS.
- WESTERLY WINDS BECOME ELEVATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH SCAS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WEAK SURFACE HIGH MOVING
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS BEHIND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS HIGH
LINGERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI. AS
SUCH, NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM 10-15 KT EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING, BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA, SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 4-
6 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT LATER
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE S COASTAL WATERS AND BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE N COASTAL WATERS. AS SUCH, SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS.
A WARM FRONT QUICKLY LIFTS N ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRI,
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME S 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY
FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME SW 15-20 KT FRI EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BECOMING W WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT BEHIND
THE FRONT FRI NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SAT, WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ELEVATED WINDS MAY LINGER INTO SAT NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WIND PROBS FOR
18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 90-95% ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FRI NIGHT WITH WIND PROBS FOR 25 KT GUSTS OF 60-75% (LOCALLY
UP TO 90%). ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GALE CONDITIONS AS
WELL WITH WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT GUSTS OF 30-45% FRI NIGHT. AS SUCH,
SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY AND POTENTIALLY
MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THIS SURGE. ADDITIONALLY,
SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE FRI
AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS (>34 KT) AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF GENERALLY
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS INTO THIS EVENING ALLOWING WATER LEVELS TO
RISE, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN BAY AND ALONG THE RAPPAHANNOCK
RIVER. THE TIDES LAST EVENING/THIS MORNING UNDERPERFORMED, BUT
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE SINCE THE
WINDS BECAME MUCH STRONGER TODAY, POTENTIALLY PUSHING MORE WATER
INTO THE MIDDLE AND NORTHERN BAY. BISHOPS HEAD AND LEWISETTA WILL BE
THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR ANY KIND OF FLOODING THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
GENERALLY EXPECTING THAT THERE SHOULDN'T BE ANYTHING MORE THAN
NUISANCE FLOODING DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT AND BECOME LIGHTER AND WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WATER LEVELS TO GRADUALLY RETURN TO NORMAL.
THE RIP RISK REMAINS MODERATE ON THURSDAY DUE TO LINGERING
ONSHORE SWELL AND ELEVATED SEAS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BEACHES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ654-
656-658.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...JKP/NB
MARINE...RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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