844
FXUS61 KAKQ 291840
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
240 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THIS AFTERNOON, A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST (ROUGHLY OVER THE NWS OFFICE AS OF 2 PM). THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT, STILL
SEEING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
HELD BACK INTO 60S, WITH A RESIDUAL COOL AIR WEDGE REMAINING.
ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 70S (AROUND 80 IN
THE FAR S). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON,
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN CHECK, SO WE HAVE
MAINLY JUST SEEN RAIN SHOWERS THUS FAR. HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MODEST INSTABILITY (MLCAPE UP TO ~500 J/KG) TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION, BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO
40 KNOTS WILL AT LEAST SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. SPC HAS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS, THE BULK OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z (8 PM), WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE MAJORITY OF ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS COMING TO AN END BY SUNRISE (LINGERING THE
LONGEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
1.60-1.80"+, WPC HAS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL ERO. WARM TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 340 AM EDT THURSDAY..
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY, WITH A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA (SLIGHT RISK).
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED SATURDAY, WITH A MARGINAL
SVR RISK.
THE MODELS STILL REMAIN IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY, AS THE CORE OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. SE THROUGH CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON BAY CANADA). AS THIS OCCURS, A STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENS WHILE TRACKING NE FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO PA.MD
FRI AFTN/EVENING. WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FRIDAY, AND ASSUMING A DRY PERIOD FRI MORNING OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM, AMPLE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY (1000+ J/KG
OF MLCAPE) IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP, ALONG WITH STRONG H7-H5
WINDS IN THE FAST MOVING SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS,
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND, LARGE HAIL, AND EVEN ISOLATED
TORNADOES. CURRENTLY, MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA IS IN A DAY 2
SLIGHT RISK, FOR 15% PROBS FOR BOTH WIND AND HAIL, WITH A 2%
TOR THREAT OUTLINED MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL VA COUNTIES
(TO THE S AND SW OF RIC). THE CAM RUNS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT
DIVERGENT, BUT THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR A BROKEN LINE OR LINE OF
STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO BE TRACKING W TO E INTO THE EVENING,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE CELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE
LINE. EXPECT RATHER LOW MORNING POPS, FOLLOWED BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON- EVENING POPS ARE INTO THE 70-80% RANGE THROUGHOUT
THE CWA. WE ARE ALSO IN A MARGINAL ERO OUTLOOK FOR ALL VA AND
NC ZONES, IN PART DUE TO THE RECENT WET SPELL. HIGHS FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WARMEST SE.
RAIN/STORM CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE 50S, WITH SOME LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SE.
BY SATURDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW LINGERS OFF TO OUR N/NE ON SATURDAY
LEADING TO DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE INTO
THE 6.5C TO 7C RANGE SAT AFTN SO SOME STRONGER STORMS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST, FOR NOW, THE ENTIRE AREA IS
IN A DAY 3 MARGINAL SVR RISK. POPS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST
ALONG/NORTH OF I-64 (~50-60% POPS). HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW- MID 70S N TO THE UPPER 70S-AROUND 80 SE. FINALLY DRYING OUT
SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MODELS ARE INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL FOR SUNDAY. IT
LOOKS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEW PTS
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY TO START.
THERE IS STILL ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND SE BY LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY,
WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THIS WOULD BE MUCH LESS IMPACTFUL THAN FRI-SAT.
THEREAFTER, THE PATTERN IS FOR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS, THOUGH SOME OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW SOME UPPER TROUGHINESS LINGERING JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. A
WARM FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOME LINGERING IFR CIGS EXIST AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT OF VA, BUT THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, MVFR TO VFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET.
RAIN CHANCES (AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) INCREASE AFTER 00Z
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AND
POTENTIALLY MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.
SBY HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IFR CIGS TONIGHT, LIKELY
DEVELOPING NEAR OR JUST AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE
FRIDAY AM. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AT RIC, ORF, AND
PHF FROM ~08-10Z THROUGH 14Z, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE COMPARED TO
SBY. CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT A HIGHER PROBABILITY FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING WHERE
SHOWERS WOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BE MORE
PERSISTENT. SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY-
MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 255 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO LINGERING SEAS.
- WESTERLY WINDS BECOME ELEVATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH SCAS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WEAK SURFACE HIGH MOVING
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS BEHIND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS HIGH
LINGERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI. AS
SUCH, NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM 10-15 KT EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING, BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA, SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 4-
6 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT LATER
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE S COASTAL WATERS AND BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE N COASTAL WATERS. AS SUCH, SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS.
A WARM FRONT QUICKLY LIFTS N ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRI,
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME S 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY
FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME SW 15-20 KT FRI EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BECOMING W WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT BEHIND
THE FRONT FRI NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SAT, WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ELEVATED WINDS MAY LINGER INTO SAT NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WIND PROBS FOR
18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 90-95% ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FRI NIGHT WITH WIND PROBS FOR 25 KT GUSTS OF 60-75% (LOCALLY
UP TO 90%). ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GALE CONDITIONS AS
WELL WITH WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT GUSTS OF 30-45% FRI NIGHT. AS SUCH,
SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY AND POTENTIALLY
MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THIS SURGE. ADDITIONALLY,
SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE FRI
AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS (>34 KT) AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF GENERALLY
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY ACROSS ALL AREA BEACHES
GIVEN A LINGERING ONSHORE SWELL AND 3-4 FT WAVES. THERE IS A LOW RIP
CURRENT RISK FRI GIVEN NEARSHORE WAVES AROUND 2-3 FT AND S
WINDS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
652.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RMM
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