596
FXUS61 KAKQ 291919
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
319 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THIS AFTERNOON, A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST (ROUGHLY OVER THE NWS OFFICE AS OF 2 PM). THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT, STILL
SEEING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
HELD BACK INTO 60S, WITH A RESIDUAL COOL AIR WEDGE REMAINING.
ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 70S (AROUND 80 IN
THE FAR S). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON,
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN CHECK, SO WE HAVE
MAINLY JUST SEEN RAIN SHOWERS THUS FAR. HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MODEST INSTABILITY (MLCAPE UP TO ~500 J/KG) TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION, BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO
40 KNOTS WILL AT LEAST SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. SPC HAS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS, THE BULK OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z (8 PM), WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE MAJORITY OF ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS COMING TO AN END BY SUNRISE (LINGERING THE
LONGEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
1.60-1.80"+, WPC HAS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL ERO. WARM TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY, WITH A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA (SLIGHT RISK).
- DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH A MARGINAL RISK.
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PA/MD BY
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE WEST, CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING QUICKLY COME TO AN
END AND TRACK OFFSHORE. BEHIND THESE SHOWERS, EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT
OF CLEARING/FILTERED SUNSHINE LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM/MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR MLCAPE TO INCREASE TO ~1000 TO
1500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL
DATA SHOWING POCKETS OF 2000+ J/KG. IN ADDITION, BULK SHEAR
INCREASES TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
FINALLY, WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON-EVENING WITH
SOME OF THE CAMS NOW TRYING TO DEVELOP A MESO LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
PORITIONS OF OUR AREA, RESULTING IN A TRIPLE POINT AND BACKING OF
WINDS. ALL OF THIS BEING SAID, ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING, WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL BEING
POSSIBLE. LATEST SPC DAY 2 UPDATE HAS ALL OF THE AREA BUT THE
EASTERN SHORE INCLUDED IN SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER (EASTERN SHORE MARGINAL RISK). SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A 2%
TORNADO RISK FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS AND WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE
A 5% CONTOUR ADDED SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA ON A FUTURE UPDATE. THE
CAM RUNS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT, BUT THE GENERAL THEME IS
FOR A BROKEN LINE OR LINE OF STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO BE TRACKING W
TO E INTO THE EVENING, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE CELLS
IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE. THE BEST GUESS FOR TIMING AT THIS POINT IS
STORMS ENTERING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 3 PM AND EXITING OFF THE
COAST AROUND 10 PM. WE ALSO CANNOT FORGET ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL, WITH WPC HIGHLIGHTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IN A SLIGHT DAY 2 ERO AND MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL. THE SEVERE THREAT (AND RAIN CHANCES) QUICKLY DIMINISH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
BY SATURDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW LINGERS OFF TO OUR N/NE LEADING TO
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE INTO THE 6.5C TO 7C
RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SO SOME STRONGER STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST, FOR NOW, THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A DAY 3
MARGINAL SVR RISK. POPS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST ALONG/NORTH OF I-64.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW- MID 70S N TO THE UPPER 70S-AROUND 80
SE. SRYING OUT AND COOLING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER 40S
(POSSIBLY POCKETS OF MID 40S) POSSIBLE FOR OUR NW LOCATIONS. DRY
WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS ON SUNDAY (40S AND 50S) WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S (LOW TO MID 70S EASTERN SHORE).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SE BY LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THIS WOULD BE
MUCH LESS IMPACTFUL THAN FRI-SAT. THEREAFTER, THE PATTERN IS FOR AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS, THOUGH
SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW SOME UPPER TROUGHINESS LINGERING
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY APPROACH 90+ DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. A
WARM FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOME LINGERING IFR CIGS EXIST AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT OF VA, BUT THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, MVFR TO VFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET.
RAIN CHANCES (AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) INCREASE AFTER 00Z
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AND
POTENTIALLY MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.
SBY HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IFR CIGS TONIGHT, LIKELY
DEVELOPING NEAR OR JUST AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE
FRIDAY AM. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AT RIC, ORF, AND
PHF FROM ~08-10Z THROUGH 14Z, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE COMPARED TO
SBY. CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT A HIGHER PROBABILITY FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING WHERE
SHOWERS WOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BE MORE
PERSISTENT. SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY-
MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 255 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO LINGERING SEAS.
- WESTERLY WINDS BECOME ELEVATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH SCAS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WEAK SURFACE HIGH MOVING
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS BEHIND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS HIGH
LINGERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE FRI. AS
SUCH, NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM 10-15 KT EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING, BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA, SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 4-
6 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT LATER
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE S COASTAL WATERS AND BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE N COASTAL WATERS. AS SUCH, SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS.
A WARM FRONT QUICKLY LIFTS N ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRI,
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME S 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY
FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME SW 15-20 KT FRI EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, BECOMING W WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT BEHIND
THE FRONT FRI NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO SAT, WITH SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ELEVATED WINDS MAY LINGER INTO SAT NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WIND PROBS FOR
18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 90-95% ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FRI NIGHT WITH WIND PROBS FOR 25 KT GUSTS OF 60-75% (LOCALLY
UP TO 90%). ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GALE CONDITIONS AS
WELL WITH WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT GUSTS OF 30-45% FRI NIGHT. AS SUCH,
SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY AND POTENTIALLY
MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THIS SURGE. ADDITIONALLY,
SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE FRI
AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS (>34 KT) AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF GENERALLY
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY ACROSS ALL AREA BEACHES
GIVEN A LINGERING ONSHORE SWELL AND 3-4 FT WAVES. THERE IS A LOW RIP
CURRENT RISK FRI GIVEN NEARSHORE WAVES AROUND 2-3 FT AND S
WINDS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
652.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RMM
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