660
FXUS61 KAKQ 291924
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
324 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THIS AFTERNOON, A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST (ROUGHLY OVER THE NWS OFFICE AS OF 2 PM). THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. NORTH OF THE FRONT, STILL
SEEING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, ALONG WITH WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
HELD BACK INTO 60S, WITH A RESIDUAL COOL AIR WEDGE REMAINING.
ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 70S (AROUND 80 IN
THE FAR S). WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON,
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN CHECK, SO WE HAVE
MAINLY JUST SEEN RAIN SHOWERS THUS FAR. HAVE STARTED TO SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME MODEST INSTABILITY (MLCAPE UP TO ~500 J/KG) TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION, BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO
40 KNOTS WILL AT LEAST SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER
STORMS. SPC HAS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS, THE BULK OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z (8 PM), WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE MAJORITY OF ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS COMING TO AN END BY SUNRISE (LINGERING THE
LONGEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
1.60-1.80"+, WPC HAS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL ERO. WARM TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY, WITH A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA (SLIGHT RISK).
- DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH A MARGINAL RISK.
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PA/MD BY
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE WEST, CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING QUICKLY COME TO AN
END AND TRACK OFFSHORE. BEHIND THESE SHOWERS, EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT
OF CLEARING/FILTERED SUNSHINE LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM/MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR MLCAPE TO INCREASE TO ~1000 TO
1500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL
DATA SHOWING POCKETS OF 2000+ J/KG. IN ADDITION, BULK SHEAR
INCREASES TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
FINALLY, WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON-EVENING WITH
SOME OF THE CAMS NOW TRYING TO DEVELOP A MESO LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, RESULTING IN A TRIPLE POINT AND BACKING
OF WINDS. ALL OF THIS BEING SAID, ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
ARE POSSIBLE LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING,
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL
BEING POSSIBLE. LATEST SPC DAY 2 UPDATE HAS ALL OF THE AREA BUT
THE EASTERN SHORE INCLUDED IN SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER (EASTERN SHORE MARGINAL RISK). SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED A 2% TORNADO RISK FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS AND WOULD
NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A 5% CONTOUR ADDED SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA
ON A FUTURE UPDATE. THE CAM RUNS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT
DIVERGENT, BUT THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR A BROKEN LINE OR LINE OF
STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO BE TRACKING W TO E INTO THE EVENING,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE CELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE
LINE. THE BEST GUESS FOR TIMING AT THIS POINT IS STORMS ENTERING
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 3 PM AND EXITING OFF THE COAST
AROUND 10 PM. WE ALSO CANNOT FORGET ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL, WITH WPC HIGHLIGHTING NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT DAY 2 ERO AND MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA IN A MARGINAL. THE SEVERE THREAT (AND RAIN CHANCES)
QUICKLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
BY SATURDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW LINGERS OFF TO OUR N/NE LEADING TO
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE INTO THE 6.5C TO 7C
RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SO SOME STRONGER STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST, FOR NOW, THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A DAY 3
MARGINAL SVR RISK. POPS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST ALONG/NORTH OF I-64.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW- MID 70S N TO THE UPPER 70S-AROUND 80
SE. DRYING OUT AND COOLING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER 40S
(POSSIBLY POCKETS OF MID 40S) POSSIBLE FOR OUR NW LOCATIONS. DRY
WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS ON SUNDAY (40S AND 50S) WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S (LOW TO MID 70S EASTERN SHORE).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SE BY LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THIS WOULD BE
MUCH LESS IMPACTFUL THAN FRI-SAT. THEREAFTER, THE PATTERN IS FOR AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS, THOUGH
SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW SOME UPPER TROUGHINESS LINGERING
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY APPROACH 90+ DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...
GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. A
WARM FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SOME LINGERING IFR CIGS EXIST AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT OF VA, BUT THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, MVFR TO VFR CIGS PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET.
RAIN CHANCES (AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) INCREASE AFTER 00Z
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AND
POTENTIALLY MVFR OR IFR VSBYS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS.
SBY HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING IFR CIGS TONIGHT, LIKELY
DEVELOPING NEAR OR JUST AFTER 03Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNRISE
FRIDAY AM. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AT RIC, ORF, AND
PHF FROM ~08-10Z THROUGH 14Z, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE COMPARED TO
SBY. CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT A HIGHER PROBABILITY FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING WHERE
SHOWERS WOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BE MORE
PERSISTENT. SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY-
MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
- SCA HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
- SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND A 1022MB SURFACE HIGH OVER BERMUDA. SEAS
OFF THE COASTLINE HAVE LOWERED AND SCA HAVE BEEN DROPPED. SEAS STILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT ACROSS THE
BAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE WEAK CAUSING
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.
LATER THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT FORM DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO RETURN. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS NEARING 15 KT. SEAS
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE BAY BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FT AND 2 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE
OCEAN.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WATERS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND POTENTIAL WATERSPOUTS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ALLOWING WINDS TO
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. THEN BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING THE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CAUSING THE WINDS TO SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST.
PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KTS ACROSS ALL WATERS.
WILL NOTE, LOCAL WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE SHOWN A 30 TO 40% CHANCE OF
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAY
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AROUND PEAK WINDS.THE CONFIDENCE IN GALE
CONDITIONS IS LOW TO DO TO A SHORT PERIOD AS WELL AS LOW
PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER, WITH THE HIGH CONFIDENT IN SCA CONDITIONS
SCA'S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS STARTING FROM 0Z SAT
AND LASTING THROUGH 12Z SAT. THERE IS ALSO HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE SCA'S CONTINUING PRIMARILY FOR THE BAY SAT AS A SECOND SURGE
OF DRY AND COOL AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO QUITE DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL BE
BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE BAY AND 4 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OCEAN. THE
SEAS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY SATURDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHT'S BETWEEN 2 TO 3
FT ACROSS THE BAY AND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE OCEAN. BY SUNDAY WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO OPTIMAL HEIGHTS WITH SEAS ACROSS THE BAY
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FT AND 2 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE OCEAN.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS ALL
AREA BEACHES GIVEN A LINGERING ONSHORE SWELL AND 3-4 FT WAVES. THERE
IS A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK FRIDAY GIVEN NEARSHORE WAVES AROUND 2-3 FT
AND S WINDS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF MODERATE RIP CURRENTS ON
SATURDAY HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
652.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...HET
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