069
FXUS61 KAKQ 300137
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
937 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS OF 921 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
WHILE OUR FORECAST AREA HAS REMAINED QUIET FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
EVENING, A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STARTING TO CREEP INTO NE NC AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VA. A WARM FRONT IS
LIFTING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, WITH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ONE THUNDERSTORM SHOWED
SOME ROTATION ALONG THE BORDER OF BERTIE COUNTY. THE KAKQ VAD
WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS MODEST SRH VALUES, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT MOVE INTO OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S N AND IN THE
LOWER 70S S. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND PW
VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO ROUGHLY 1.5-1.7" ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS, MAKING FOR QUITE A MOISTURE-RICH
ENVIRONMENT.
FOR TONIGHT, ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN NE NC AND
SE/S CENTRAL VA. PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WPC HAS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL ERO. RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST, LINGERING FOR
THE LONGEST IN THE EAST ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING
THROUGH THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY, WITH A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA (SLIGHT RISK).
- DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH A MARGINAL RISK.
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PA/MD BY
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE WEST, CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING QUICKLY COME TO AN
END AND TRACK OFFSHORE. BEHIND THESE SHOWERS, EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT
OF CLEARING/FILTERED SUNSHINE LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM/MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR MLCAPE TO INCREASE TO ~1000 TO
1500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL
DATA SHOWING POCKETS OF 2000+ J/KG. IN ADDITION, BULK SHEAR
INCREASES TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
FINALLY, WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON-EVENING WITH
SOME OF THE CAMS NOW TRYING TO DEVELOP A MESO LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, RESULTING IN A TRIPLE POINT AND BACKING
OF WINDS. ALL OF THIS BEING SAID, ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
ARE POSSIBLE LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING,
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL
BEING POSSIBLE. LATEST SPC DAY 2 UPDATE HAS ALL OF THE AREA BUT
THE EASTERN SHORE INCLUDED IN SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER (EASTERN SHORE MARGINAL RISK). SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED A 2% TORNADO RISK FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS AND WOULD
NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A 5% CONTOUR ADDED SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA
ON A FUTURE UPDATE. THE CAM RUNS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT
DIVERGENT, BUT THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR A BROKEN LINE OR LINE OF
STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO BE TRACKING W TO E INTO THE EVENING,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE CELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE
LINE. THE BEST GUESS FOR TIMING AT THIS POINT IS STORMS ENTERING
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 3 PM AND EXITING OFF THE COAST
AROUND 10 PM. WE ALSO CANNOT FORGET ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL, WITH WPC HIGHLIGHTING NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT DAY 2 ERO AND MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA IN A MARGINAL. THE SEVERE THREAT (AND RAIN CHANCES)
QUICKLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
BY SATURDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW LINGERS OFF TO OUR N/NE LEADING TO
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE INTO THE 6.5C TO 7C
RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SO SOME STRONGER STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST, FOR NOW, THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A DAY 3
MARGINAL SVR RISK. POPS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST ALONG/NORTH OF I-64.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW- MID 70S N TO THE UPPER 70S-AROUND 80
SE. DRYING OUT AND COOLING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER 40S
(POSSIBLY POCKETS OF MID 40S) POSSIBLE FOR OUR NW LOCATIONS. DRY
WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS ON SUNDAY (40S AND 50S) WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S (LOW TO MID 70S EASTERN SHORE).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SE BY LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THIS WOULD BE
MUCH LESS IMPACTFUL THAN FRI-SAT. THEREAFTER, THE PATTERN IS FOR AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS, THOUGH
SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW SOME UPPER TROUGHINESS LINGERING
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY APPROACH 90+ DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 745 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS AT THIS TIME, ASIDE
FROM SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS AT PHF AND RIC. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING IN
THE SOUTH. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO AT ECG FOR -TSRA WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST FOR THUNDER, BUT HAVE MAINTAINED -SHRA AT ALL OTHER
TERMINALS. PENDING INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE OVER THE
TERMINALS, AMENDMENTS TO VIS MAY BE NECESSARY. SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS
(IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR) WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, FINALLY WANING
AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW THOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY HANG ON A FEW HOURS
LONGER. A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 AT RIC FOR THE TSRA STARTING
AT 20Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE OTHER TERMINALS MAY
SEE ACTIVITY PICK UP NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE AS IT MAY BE AFTER 00Z. WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT A HIGHER PROBABILITY FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING WHERE
SHOWERS WOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BE MORE
PERSISTENT. SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY-
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 935 PM EDT THURSDAY...
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
- SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
S-SW WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. SEA 2-3 FT; WAVES ON THE
BAY 1-2 FT.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS. WITH AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND
INCREASE. PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KT AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KTS
ACROSS ALL WATERS. WILL NOTE, LOCAL WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE
SHOWN A 30 TO 40% CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE
CONFIDENCE IN GALE CONDITIONS IS LOW TO DO TO A SHORT PERIOD AS
WELL AS LOW PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER, WITH THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SCA CONDITIONS, SCA'S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS
STARTING FROM 0Z SAT AND LASTING THROUGH 14Z SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 4 TO 5 FT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND 3 TO 4 FT ON THE CHES
BAY. THERE IS ALSO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SCA'S
AGAIN SAT NIGHT AS A SECOND SURGE OF DRY/COOL AIR IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE WATERS. MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO QUITE
DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR ANZ632>634-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 7 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB/NB
SHORT TERM...AJB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...AJB/NB
MARINE...HET/JDM
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