293
FXUS61 KAKQ 300613
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
213 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 210 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE BY AROUND SUNRISE
(POTENTIALLY AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER ALONG THE COAST).
ADDITIONALLY, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS. WPC HAS
ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL
ERO. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRATIFORM NATURE OF THE RAIN, THE
FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO BE WANING. OTHERWISE, A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N THROUGH THE AREA WITH MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID 60S (LOCALLY UPPER 60S) FOR MOST ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY, WITH A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA (SLIGHT RISK).
- DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH A MARGINAL RISK.
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO PA/MD BY
LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE WEST, CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING QUICKLY COME TO AN
END AND TRACK OFFSHORE. BEHIND THESE SHOWERS, EXPECT AT LEAST A BIT
OF CLEARING/FILTERED SUNSHINE LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WARM/MOIST SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR MLCAPE TO INCREASE TO ~1000 TO
1500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER RES MODEL
DATA SHOWING POCKETS OF 2000+ J/KG. IN ADDITION, BULK SHEAR
INCREASES TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
FINALLY, WILL NEED TO WATCH CLOSELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON-EVENING WITH
SOME OF THE CAMS NOW TRYING TO DEVELOP A MESO LOW ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, RESULTING IN A TRIPLE POINT AND BACKING
OF WINDS. ALL OF THIS BEING SAID, ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
ARE POSSIBLE LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING,
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL
BEING POSSIBLE. LATEST SPC DAY 2 UPDATE HAS ALL OF THE AREA BUT
THE EASTERN SHORE INCLUDED IN SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER (EASTERN SHORE MARGINAL RISK). SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED A 2% TORNADO RISK FOR THE SAME LOCATIONS AND WOULD
NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A 5% CONTOUR ADDED SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA
ON A FUTURE UPDATE. THE CAM RUNS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT
DIVERGENT, BUT THE GENERAL THEME IS FOR A BROKEN LINE OR LINE OF
STORMS LATE IN THE DAY TO BE TRACKING W TO E INTO THE EVENING,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE CELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE
LINE. THE BEST GUESS FOR TIMING AT THIS POINT IS STORMS ENTERING
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 3 PM AND EXITING OFF THE COAST
AROUND 10 PM. WE ALSO CANNOT FORGET ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL, WITH WPC HIGHLIGHTING NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT DAY 2 ERO AND MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA IN A MARGINAL. THE SEVERE THREAT (AND RAIN CHANCES)
QUICKLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.
BY SATURDAY, A CLOSED UPPER LOW LINGERS OFF TO OUR N/NE LEADING TO
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE INTO THE 6.5C TO 7C
RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SO SOME STRONGER STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST, FOR NOW, THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A DAY 3
MARGINAL SVR RISK. POPS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHEST ALONG/NORTH OF I-64.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW- MID 70S N TO THE UPPER 70S-AROUND 80
SE. DRYING OUT AND COOLING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER 40S
(POSSIBLY POCKETS OF MID 40S) POSSIBLE FOR OUR NW LOCATIONS. DRY
WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS ON SUNDAY (40S AND 50S) WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S (LOW TO MID 70S EASTERN SHORE).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 315 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
ONE FINAL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SE BY LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THIS WOULD BE
MUCH LESS IMPACTFUL THAN FRI-SAT. THEREAFTER, THE PATTERN IS FOR AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS, THOUGH
SOME OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW SOME UPPER TROUGHINESS LINGERING
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY APPROACH 90+ DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 205 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE NE WITH TIME, LIKELY
TAPERING OFF BY AROUND 12Z (PERHAPS AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER ALONG
THE COAST). VIS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR OR GREATER IN THE RAIN.
ADDITIONALLY, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS,
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS. CIGS
RANGED FROM IFR TO VFR WITH CIGS LIKELY DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS IS HIGHEST
ACROSS SBY, ECG, AND PHF WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT RIC AND ORF.
A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR. SCATTERED
STORMS MOVE FROM W TO E ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, LIKELY IMPACTING MOST (OR ALL) OF THE TAF SITES.
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF STORMS REMAINS LOW-MODERATE,
BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR STORMS ARRIVE AROUND RIC
BETWEEN 21-00Z AND PHF/ORF/ECG/SBY AFTER 23Z. STRONG TO SEVERE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS ALONG WITH ISOLATED HAIL. THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT WITH A WRAP
AROUND BAND OF SHOWERS (POTENTIALLY SOME EMBEDDED STORMS)
IMPACTING RIC AND SBY THROUGH THE NIGHT. CIGS REMAIN GENERALLY
VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT APART
FROM MVFR CIGS AT SBY AFTER 00Z SAT. ADDITIONALLY, CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LLWS AT RIC TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY-
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 935 PM EDT THURSDAY...
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
- SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
S-SW WINDS AOB 10 KT WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. SEA 2-3 FT; WAVES ON THE
BAY 1-2 FT.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WATERS. WITH AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST AND
INCREASE. PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KT AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KTS
ACROSS ALL WATERS. WILL NOTE, LOCAL WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE
SHOWN A 30 TO 40% CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE
CONFIDENCE IN GALE CONDITIONS IS LOW TO DO TO A SHORT PERIOD AS
WELL AS LOW PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER, WITH THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SCA CONDITIONS, SCA'S HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS
STARTING FROM 0Z SAT AND LASTING THROUGH 14Z SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 4 TO 5 FT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND 3 TO 4 FT ON THE CHES
BAY. THERE IS ALSO MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SCA'S
AGAIN SAT NIGHT AS A SECOND SURGE OF DRY/COOL AIR IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE WATERS. MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO QUITE
DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ632>634-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...RMM/NB
SHORT TERM...AJB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...HET/JDM
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