849
FXUS61 KAKQ 301058
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
658 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER TO RETURN. A WARMUP IS EXPECTED BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT RAIN TAPERS OFF LATER THIS MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS, ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
AND E OF I-95. THIS RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM W TO E
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM. TEMPS AS OF 655 AM RANGED FROM THE MID
60S INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. BEHIND THE
CONVECTION THIS MORNING, A PERIOD OF AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
IS LIKELY BEHIND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR CLEARING IS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. THIS CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO THE LOWER
80S (LOCALLY UPPER 70S). WILL NOTE THAT MID 80S ARE POSSIBLE IF
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS (BEST CHANCE ACROSS SE VA/NE NC WHERE
CLEARING LINGERS THE LONGEST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ALOFT, A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEUTRALLY TILTED THIS
AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS EVENING AS
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES WITH IT. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE NE
ACROSS NORTHERN VA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A WARM
FRONT WILL BE LOCATED EITHER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL VA OR NORTHERN VA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE (DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S),
AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING, AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5C,
EXPECT MLCAPE TO INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, 0-6 KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 45 TO 60 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PARAMETER SPACE THAT IS
FAVORABLE FOR ALL HAZARDS OF SEVERE. AS SUCH, SPC HAS MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SHIP VALUES >1 INDICATING A CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
LARGE HAIL IF MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES (SUPERCELLS) ARE REALIZED.
ADDITIONALLY, WINDS BACK AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW THIS EVENING,
ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE SRH TO DEVELOP AND THEREFORE ALLOWING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A TORNADO WILL LIKELY BE
NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE REMNANT WARM
FRONT. AS SUCH, SPC HAS PLACED AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR WEST
UNDER A 5% CHANCE FOR A TORNADO. STORM MODE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN
WITH A MIXTURE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE CAMS
SHOWING A MORE LINEAR SOLUTION (SUCH AS THE HRRR) END UP BEING
PARTIALLY INCORRECT. IN ANY CASE, EXPECT STORMS TO EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE AS THE MOVE E OF I-95 DURING THE
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WILL NOTE THAT THE 3KM NAM APPEARS TO BE
TOO IN SHOWING DISCRETE STORMS AND AN INHERIT UPTICK IN TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THIS IS DUE TO THE MODEL LACKING PREFRONTAL STORMS
AND HAVING A STRONGER SURFACE LOW (WHICH ALLOWS FOR A STRONGER
SURFACE RESPONSE IN MORE BACKED WINDS). THIS DIFFERS FROM MOST
OF THE OTHER CAMS WHICH SHOW A PREFRONTAL BAND OF STORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IF THIS PREFRONTAL
BAND DOES NOT DEVELOP OR IS DELAYED CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT, A
MORE POTENT SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE REALIZED. HOWEVER, THAT WILL
NOT BE ABLE TO BE DETERMINED UNTIL LATER TODAY ONCE THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE CLEAR. ANOTHER POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTOR
IS REMNANT CLOUD COVER FROM THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION
POTENTIALLY LIMITING INSTABILITY. IN ANY CASE, PREPARE FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN TERMS OF
SEVERE WEATHER. THE BEST GUESS FOR TIMING AT THIS POINT IS
STORMS ENTERING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 3 PM AND EXITING OFF
THE COAST AROUND 10-11 PM.
WE ALSO CANNOT FORGET ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS
WELL, WITH WPC HIGHLIGHTING THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN
A SLIGHT DAY 2 ERO AND MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL. THE SEVERE THREAT (AND RAIN CHANCES) QUICKLY DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. WILL NOTE THAT SHOWERS (AND
POTENTIALLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS PRECIP PIVOTS
AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. IF THE LOW TRACKS MORE SOUTH, PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE AND VICE VERSA. CLOUDS CLEAR LATE TONIGHT (EXCEPT ACROSS N
PORTIONS OF THE FA) WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S
EXPECTED (LOCALLY AROUND 60F ALONG THE COAST).
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 430 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, POSING THE RISK FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
BY SATURDAY, THE SHORTWAVES PHASE INTO AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
THE PARENT TROUGH) MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY COOL TEMPS ALOFT FOR LATE MAY, WHICH
THEREFORE WILL ALLOW FOR VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 6.5-7.5 C ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES
ACROSS THE SW HALF OF THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS REMAIN
GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 50S SAT AFTERNOON, THE COOL TEMPS
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MLCAPE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA (500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE NE HALF OF THE
AREA). 0-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS NE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA (15-25 KT) WITH 25-40 KT OF SHEAR POSSIBLE
ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES, HIGH LCLS, AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS, A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
AT LEAST SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON (POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS
AROUND NOON), MOVING SE WITH TIME. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE HAIL
SETUP, ANY STRONGER SHOWER/STORMS IS LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST
SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER, IF A STORM IS ABLE TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH,
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE (POTENTIALLY LARGER THAN QUARTERS) GIVEN
SHIP VALUES >1. ADDITIONALLY, THE LAPSE RATES ONLY STEEPEN
TOWARDS THE SURFACE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG WINDS TO MIX TO
THE SURFACE. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT IF A STORM IS COMPOSED MOSTLY OF
HAIL AND/OR ELEVATED, A STRONG COLD POOL MAY NOT DEVELOP. AS
SUCH, SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) RISK
FOR HAIL AND WIND SAT.
CONVECTION QUICKLY TAPERS OFF BY SAT EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 70S N TO THE UPPER
70S S SAT AND SUN. LOWS COOL TO THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOW-MID 50S
SE (UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST) SAT NIGHT AND AROUND 50F NW TO THE
UPPER 50S SE (AROUND 60F ALONG THE COAST) SUN NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 445 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- A WARMUP IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ALOFT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EAST COAST ON MON
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE TUE WITH A RIDGE MOVING INTO THE EAST COAST
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER, MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE
EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE. THE GFS/GEFS IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH EXITING THE COAST WHEREAS THE EURO/EPS
BUILDS THE RIDGE INTO E CANADA BUT THAT ALLOWS FOR A PIECE OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST TO BECOME A CUTOFF LOW LINGERING NEAR OR
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OR JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS/GEFS IS CORRECT, A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED
BY TUE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUE AND APPROACHING 90F BY
WED/THU. HOWEVER, IF THE EURO/EPS IS CORRECT, LINGERING CLOUD COVER
WOULD KEEP TEMPS COOLER WITH EPS HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S ON TUE
FOR RICHMOND AND MAXING OUT IN THE MID 80S BY WED/THU. FOR NOW, AM
LEANING TOWARDS THE EURO/EPS SOLUTION BUT KEPT NBM TEMPS IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IT IS. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
INCREASE FRI.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 655 AM EDT FRIDAY...
LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VIS SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR OR GREATER IN THE RAIN. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS THIS MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 13-14Z, EVENTUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR BY 15-18Z. A LULL IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM
MID- LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES LIKELY. SCATTERED STORMS MOVE FROM W
TO E ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING,
LIKELY IMPACTING MOST (OR ALL) OF THE TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXACT TIMING OF STORMS REMAINS LOW- MODERATE, BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR STORMS ARRIVE AROUND RIC BETWEEN 21-00Z
AND PHF/ORF/ECG/SBY AFTER 23Z. STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS ALONG WITH ISOLATED HAIL. THE MAIN LINE
OF STORMS MOVES OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT WITH A WRAP AROUND BAND
OF SHOWERS (POTENTIALLY SOME EMBEDDED STORMS) IMPACTING RIC AND
SBY THROUGH THE NIGHT. CIGS REMAIN GENERALLY VFR FOR ALL
TERMINALS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT APART FROM MVFR
CIGS AT SBY AFTER 01Z SAT. ADDITIONALLY, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LLWS AT RIC TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY-
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THIS
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
WIND IS LIGHT, GENERALLY S TO SW 5-10KT, AND SEAS ARE 2-3FT, WITH 1-
2FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. THE INITIAL TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING, AND WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BY THIS EVENING. THE WIND WILL MAINLY BE SW 5-
10KT THIS MORNING AND THEN WILL INCREASE TO S TO SSW 10-15KT BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS REMAIN 2-3FT TODAY WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN
THE CHES. BAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE W EARLY
THIS EVENING AND PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN, WITH POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
TSTMS PUSHING ACROSS THE COAST LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A BRIEF,
BUT STRONG WESTERLY SURGE IS LIKELY IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH MODEST 3HR PRESSURE RISES ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN PA AND NJ. WIND GUSTS PROBABILITIES OF >=
34KT HAVE INCREASED TO 60-70% FOR THE CHES. BAY, AND 60-80% FOR THE
OCEAN FROM THE VA/NC BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE. HOWEVER, THIS IS ONLY
OVER A 2-3HR PERIOD FALLING IN A WINDOW BETWEEN 1-6AM, AND IT WILL
ALSO LIKELY BE INFLUENCED BY THIS INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION. GIVEN
THIS, SCAS WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH SOME ENHANCED WORDING ADDED TO
THE MWW. SEAS BUILD TO 4-6FT LATE TONIGHT, WITH WAVES IN THE CHES.
BAY BUILDING TO 3-4FT.
A WSW WIND OF 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO ~25KT PERSISTS THROUGH MIDDAY
SATURDAY BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT DURING THE
AFTN AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTN, AND AGAIN, SOME COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE TO 3-4FT/2-3FT SATURDAY. THE
WIND SHIFTS TO NW LATER SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE CHES. BAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BEFORE SETTLING OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRING
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A MODESTLY STRONG WESTERLY WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. THIS
COULD POTENTIALLY BRING NUISANCE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO THE
BAY-SIDE OF THE EASTERN SHORE DURING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ632>634-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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