359
FXUS61 KAKQ 311051
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
651 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER TO
RETURN THROUGH MID-WEEK. A WARMUP IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 645 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZY TODAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.
TEMPS AS OF 640 AM RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F ACROSS
THE AREA. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A ~987MB AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR NYC. RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. W WINDS CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE WHERE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO ~30 MPH. WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY, AVERAGING AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
ALOFT, AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT TRACKS NE INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY COLD FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE PARENT TROUGH) MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY COOL TEMPS ALOFT
FOR LATE MAY, WHICH THEREFORE WILL ALLOW FOR VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ~7C (LOCALLY ~7.5C) ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S THIS
AFTERNOON, THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SBCAPE TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG (LOCALLY AROUND 1500 J/KG) ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA (500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE NW PORTIONS OF THE
AREA). A STRONG GRADIENT IN 0-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A
BELT OF ~60 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY SE
INTO NC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 40-60 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR ACROSS THE
S/SW HALF OF THE AREA WITH WEAKER VALUES OF 20-30 KT ACROSS NE/N
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES, HIGH LCLS,
AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS, A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR AT LEAST SMALL
HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON (POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS AROUND
NOON), MOVING SE WITH TIME. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE HAIL SETUP,
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST SMALL HAIL
WITH THEM. HOWEVER, IF A STORM IS ABLE TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH,
SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE (POTENTIALLY LARGER THAN QUARTERS) GIVEN
SHIP VALUES >1. ADDITIONALLY, THE LAPSE RATES ONLY STEEPEN
TOWARDS THE SURFACE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG WINDS TO
EFFICIENTLY MIX TO THE SURFACE. AS SUCH, SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA
UNDER A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) RISK FOR HAIL AND WIND TODAY.
CONVECTION QUICKLY TAPERS OFF BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S N TO THE UPPER 70S S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS
TONIGHT COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND 50S CLOSER TO THE
COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SE VA
AND NE NC LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ALOFT, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST
COAST THROUGH MON. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT S OF THE LOCAL
AREA SUN MORNING POTENTIALLY LIFTS N INTO S PORTIONS OF THE FA SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DROPPING BACK S SUN NIGHT. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO
LINGER CLOSE ENOUGH TO S PORTIONS OF THE FA THAT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SE VA/NE NC SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT
AS FAR N AS THE LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME POPS OF 15-30%. WILL NOTE
THAT SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO THE S OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUN AT THIS TIME, IF THE FRONT TRENDS N, THIS
COULD CHANGE. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BOTH SUN AND MON WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S (LOCALLY AROUND 80F SE) BOTH DAYS AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO AROUND 60F SE (MOST IN THE LOWER 50S)
SUN NIGHT AND LOW-MID 50S FOR MOST (UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- A WARMUP IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS BY FRIDAY.
ALOFT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OFFSHORE TUE WITH A RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE EAST COAST FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. THE EURO/EPS HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS/GEFS IN SHOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS
OPPOSED TO A CUTOFF LOW LINGERING NEAR THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
SUCH, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP BEGINNING TUE
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGHS INCREASE
FROM THE MID 80S TUE TO THE UPPER 80S WED AND AROUND 90F THU AND
FRI. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARMUP THROUGH THU NIGHT.
ENSEMBLES SHOW SIGNS OF A TROUGH APPROACHING BY FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND, LEADING TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING. NBM POPS
INCREASE TO 30-40% FRI AND 40-50% SAT FOR SCATTERED,
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 650 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM W TO E THIS MORNING WITH SCT
CU (BKN CU AT SBY) DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
INTO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
SBY. AS SUCH, HAVE ADDED A TEMPO AT SBY. OTHERWISE, CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THE OTHER
TERMINALS TO GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA IN THE TAFS. INSTEAD HAVE
OPTED FOR VCTS AND PROB30 FOR NOW. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG STORMS. WINDS REMAIN W ~15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 5-10 KT,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
- GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE RIVERS AND
CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, 991MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN NJ, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. A
STRONG WESTERLY WIND OF 25-30KT WITH GUSTS TO 35-40KT HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE CHES. BAY AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4-6FT, WITH 3-4FT
WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. ELSEWHERE, A W WIND IS PRIMARILY 15-25KT
WITH GUSTS TO ~30KT. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM FOR
THE CHES. BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. A WSW WIND OF 15-20KT WITH GUSTS
TO ~25KT PERSISTS THROUGH THIS AFTN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS,
PRIMARILY THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND WHERE SCAS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH 4 PM. THE WIND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RELAX A FEW
HOURS EARLIER OVER THE OPEN WATERS, BUT A PERIOD OF SCAS WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR THE CHES. BAY AND COASTAL WATERS ONCE THE GALE
WARNINGS END. SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE TO 3-4FT/2-3FT BY THIS AFTN.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN, AND AGAIN, SOME
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE WIND SHIFTS TO NW LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CHES. BAY, PRIMARILY N OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BEFORE SETTLING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A STRONG WESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN NUISANCE TO MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING ALONG THE BAY-SIDE OF THE EASTERN SHORE DURING HIGH TIDE
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR WHERE MINOR FLOODING IS
FORECAST IS FROM SAXIS, VA TO BISHOPS HEAD, MD. HIGH TIDE AT SAXIS
IS 3:41AM EDT, HIGH TIDE AT CRISFIELD IS 4:27AM EDT, AND HIGH
TIDE AT BISHOPS HEAD IS 5:21AM EDT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ099.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634-
650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
635>638.
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJZ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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