213
FXUS61 KAKQ 311450
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1050 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER TO
RETURN THROUGH MID-WEEK. A WARMUP IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1050 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZY TODAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.
~986MB LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
MORNING. A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS, WITH SOME SHORTWAVE-INDUCED ALTOCUMULUS OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR INITIATING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO SOME HIGH ALTITUDE SMOKE NOTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE, CREATING A HAZY SKY. EXPECT ANY SMOKE TO
GRADUALLY MOVE S AND E OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. EARLIER
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY TO 20-30
MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.
THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALSO DEEPENS
FURTHER TO THE LOWER 980S MB AS IT OCCLUDES OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT (ASSOCIATED WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
PARENT TROUGH) MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR VERY COOL TEMPS ALOFT FOR LATE MAY, WHICH
THEREFORE WILL ALLOW FOR VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. MID- LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF ~7C (LOCALLY ~7.5C) ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON, THE
COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SBCAPE TO INCREASE TO AROUND
1000 J/KG (LOCALLY AROUND 1500 J/KG) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
(500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA). A STRONG
GRADIENT IN 0-6KM SHEAR IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A BELT OF ~60 KT
OF 0-6KM SHEAR EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY SE INTO NC. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR 40-60 KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR ACROSS THE S/SW HALF OF
THE AREA WITH WEAKER VALUES OF 20-30 KT ACROSS NE/N PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES, HIGH LCLS, AND LOW FREEZING
LEVELS, A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR AT LEAST SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON (POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS AROUND NOON, BUT MORE LIKELY
BY 2-4 PM), MOVING SE WITH TIME. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE HAIL
SETUP, STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE AT LEAST SMALL
HAIL WITH THEM. HOWEVER, IF A STORM IS ABLE TO BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH, SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE (POTENTIALLY LARGER THAN
QUARTERS) GIVEN SHIP VALUES >1. ADDITIONALLY, THE LAPSE RATES
ONLY STEEPEN TOWARDS THE SURFACE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
WINDS ALOFT TO EFFICIENTLY MIX TO THE SURFACE. AS SUCH, SPC HAS
THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) RISK FOR HAIL AND
WIND TODAY, BUT THEY DO AT LEAST CASUALLY MENTION SOME HIGHER
WIND PROBABILITIES COULD BE WARRANTED WITH THE 1630Z/1230 PM
OUTLOOK UPDATE. CONVECTION QUICKLY TAPERS OFF BY THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S N TO THE UPPER 70S S UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AND
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SE VA
AND NE NC LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ALOFT, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST
COAST THROUGH MON. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT S OF THE LOCAL
AREA SUN MORNING POTENTIALLY LIFTS N INTO S PORTIONS OF THE FA SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DROPPING BACK S SUN NIGHT. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO
LINGER CLOSE ENOUGH TO S PORTIONS OF THE FA THAT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SE VA/NE NC SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT
AS FAR N AS THE LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME POPS OF 15-30%. WILL NOTE
THAT SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS JUST
TO THE S OF THE LOCAL AREA SUN. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUN AT THIS TIME, IF THE FRONT TRENDS N, THIS
COULD CHANGE. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BOTH SUN AND MON WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S (LOCALLY AROUND 80F SE) BOTH DAYS AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S NW TO AROUND 60F SE (MOST IN THE LOWER 50S)
SUN NIGHT AND LOW-MID 50S FOR MOST (UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST) MON
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 345 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- A WARMUP IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN RETURNS BY FRIDAY.
ALOFT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OFFSHORE TUE WITH A RIDGE MOVING
INTO THE EAST COAST FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. THE EURO/EPS HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE GFS/GEFS IN SHOWING A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AS
OPPOSED TO A CUTOFF LOW LINGERING NEAR THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
SUCH, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP BEGINNING TUE
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGHS INCREASE
FROM THE MID 80S TUE TO THE UPPER 80S WED AND AROUND 90F THU AND
FRI. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARMUP THROUGH THU NIGHT.
ENSEMBLES SHOW SIGNS OF A TROUGH APPROACHING BY FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND, LEADING TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING. NBM POPS
INCREASE TO 30-40% FRI AND 40-50% SAT FOR SCATTERED,
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 650 AM EDT SATURDAY...
CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM W TO E THIS MORNING WITH SCT
CU (BKN CU AT SBY) DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
INTO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
SBY. AS SUCH, HAVE ADDED A TEMPO AT SBY. OTHERWISE, CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THE OTHER
TERMINALS TO GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA IN THE TAFS. INSTEAD HAVE
OPTED FOR VCTS AND PROB30 FOR NOW. HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG STORMS. WINDS REMAIN W ~15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 5-10 KT,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
OUTLOOK: MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 1040 AM EDT SATURDAY...
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N
OF CAPE CHARLES THROUGH 1 PM TODAY AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY,
RIVERS, AND CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, 986MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE.
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS
MORNING, WITH W WINDS GENERALLY 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
EARLIER GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH SCAS FOR THE REST
OF THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE SCA FOR THE SRN COASTAL
WATERS WAS ALSO EXPIRED AS OF THE 10 AM UPDATE WITH THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM DUE TO LINGERING
WINDS AND SEAS. A WSW WIND OF 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO ~25KT
PERSISTS THROUGH THIS AFTN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS, PRIMARILY
THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND WHERE SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH 4 PM. SEAS/WAVES SUBSIDE TO 3-4FT/2-3FT BY THIS AFTN.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN, AND AGAIN, SOME
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE WIND SHIFTS TO NW LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CHES. BAY, PRIMARILY N OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BEFORE SETTLING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BRING BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM/SW
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJZ/SW
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