200
FXUS61 KAKQ 250537
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
137 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LARGE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, BRINGING VERY HOT
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOW- END CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKE A RETURN FROM MID WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 945 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM AND VERY HUMID TONIGHT WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AS OF 930 PM, WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80F. AS A RESULT, HEAT
INDICES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS,
AND EVEN LOCALLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100F. ACTUAL LOWS
TONIGHT ONLY DROP TO THE MID-UPPER 70S WITH SOME URBAN AREAS
STRUGGLING TO DROP BELOW 80F. GIVEN THE VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND THE LACK OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OVERNIGHT, WILL KEEP
THE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS RUNNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION REMAINS LOW OVERNIGHT GIVEN 12C TEMPS
AT 700MB. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM FROM THE PIEDMONT TO
NE NC VERY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EVERYWHERE, EXCLUDING
THE MARYLAND BEACHES WEDNESDAY.
- A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE HEAT WAVE CONTINUES WED WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S
(PERHAPS NEAR 100F IN SPOTS) AND HEAT INDICES OF 105-110F (LOCALLY
HIGHER). WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST TECHNICALLY HAS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BELOW THE TYPICAL 110F THRESHOLD FOR EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS,
GIVEN THAT THIS WILL BE THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW OF VERY HOT, HUMID
CONDITIONS, FEEL THAT MAINTAINING THE WARNING IS WARRANTED.
ADDITIONALLY, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DEW POINTS END UP BEING A BIT
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. IF THIS HAPPENS, HEAT INDICES COULD
EASILY JUMP FROM 105-110F TO THE 110F THRESHOLD. THE ONLY AREA IN A
HEAT ADVISORY INSTEAD OF AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS THE MD BEACHES.
LOWS WED NIGHT COOL TO THE LOW-MID 70S.
ALOFT, THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WED. 700MB TEMPS COOL TO 9-
10C WED AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
FL WILL ALLOW FOR A 250MB JET STREAK TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
INTO FAR S VA. INTERESTINGLY, GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW, WINDS ALOFT WILL BE EASTERLY INSTEAD OF THE TYPICAL
WESTERLY WINDS WE NORMALLY SEE AT THIS LATITUDE. THIS JET STREAK
COMBINED WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH-EXTREME INSTABILITY AND
COOLER 700MB TEMPS MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED (AS OPPOSED TO
ISOLATED) CONVECTION WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW, HAVE
KEPT NBM POPS OF 25-30%, HOWEVER, THESE MAY INCREASE AS WE GET
CLOSER. GIVEN THE VERY HIGH INSTABILITY AND DCAPE, STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT CAN BREAK THE CAP.
AS SUCH, SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE FA UNDER A MARGINAL (LEVEL
1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WED. ANY CONVECTION QUICKLY TAPERS
OFF WED NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST (UPPER 70S ALONG
THE COAST). WILL NOTE THAT CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER COULD
KEEP HEAT INDICES LOWER THAN EXPECTED, BUT THIS IS CONDITIONAL
UPON STORMS/CLOUDS FORMING.
BY THU, TEMPS "COOL" TO THE LOW-MID 90S (MOST IN THE MID 90S) FOR
HIGHS WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105-108F. THE EASTERN SHORE WILL BE A
BIT COOLER WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F. AS SUCH, HEAT ADVISORIES
ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE EASTERN SHORE. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH 30-60% POPS
(HIGHEST ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FA). A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HIGH CAPE/DCAPE ENVIRONMENT. SPC
HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) RISK FOR A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE LOW-
MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH DAILY, DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
ALOFT, THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA, BUT TOO A LESSER AMPLITUDE
THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE W OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT, SUMMER PATTERN WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 90S (MOST IN THE MID 90S) AND DAILY HEAT INDICES OF 100-
105F. IN GENERAL, MOST OF THESE DAYS LOOK TO BE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA (AT LEAST ON A WIDESPREAD LEVEL). WILL NOTE THAT A BRIEF
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
ON FRI, ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE.
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH
POPS OF 30-60% FRI, SUN, MON, AND TUE. THE LOWEST CHANCE OF RAIN
APPEARS TO BE SAT WITH 15-35% POPS. A FEW STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 137 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
WHILE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH A VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION FAVORED FOR MOST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPOTTY MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY TOWARDS
SUNRISE), BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.
OUTLOOK: OTHERWISE, PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LATE
AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU-SUN (HIGHEST CHC INLAND)
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
MARINE
AS OF 255 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AS THE
LAND HEATS UP, THEN WILL BECOME GENERALLY VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. AS THE
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID-LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
WINDS WILL SETTLE ON A S/SW WIND DIRECTION, THOUGH SEA BREEZES WILL
STILL IMPACT AREAS CLOSE TO SHORE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN
MARGINALLY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD SCAS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEAS IN THE OCEAN REMAIN AROUND 2 FT FOR THE WEEK,
INCREASING TO 2-3 FT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WAVES IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND RIVERS OF 1-2 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WED 6/25:
*RECORD HIGH TIED TUE 6/24 AT SBY
DATE RICHMOND NORFOLK SALISBURY ELIZ. CITY
06-25 100(1952) 100(1952) 99(1914) 100(1952)
DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WED 6/25:
*FOR 6/24 SBY AND ECG SET RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
RIC AND ORF TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
DATE RICHMOND NORFOLK SALISBURY ELIZ. CITY
06-25 76(1921) 79(1880) 75(1909) 76(1949)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ021>024.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/RMM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...AJZ/NB
MARINE...AJZ
CLIMATE...
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