237
FXUS61 KAKQ 251738
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 PM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LARGE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, BRINGING VERY HOT
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOW- END CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKE A RETURN FROM MID WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1015 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
- EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT EVERYWHERE, EXCLUDING THE
MARYLAND BEACHES WEDNESDAY.
- A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE EXPANSIVE ~595 DM UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE, ~1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE NEAR THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WARMING UP
QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE LOW 90S AS OF 10AM
OBS.
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS WITH US TODAY, BUT HEIGHTS DECREASE SLIGHTLY
(2-3 DM). THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR 700 MB
TEMPS TO COOL (~9 TO 10 C), WEAKENING THE CAP OVER THE AREA COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. IN ADDITION, A 250 MB JET STREAK DEVELOPS
SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
HOT TEMPERATURES/HIGH INSTABILITY, THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE, AND
THE 250 MB JET STREAK WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. GIVEN THE
HIGH INSTABILITY, ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (1
OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5)
LINGERING JUST TO OUR SW OVER THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURE-WISE, HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY (UPPER 90S TO AROUND
100). THE HEAT COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(LOCALLY UPPER 70S), WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH HEAT INDICES
OF 105-110. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE MD BEACHES WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT. AFTERNOON STORMS MAY BRING SOME LOCALIZED "RELIEF" FROM
THE HEAT.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS COME TO AN END BY ~MIDNIGHT (POSSIBLY LINGERING
LATER ACROSS THE MD EASTERN SHORE). LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S, WITH SOME UPPER 70S POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS, WITH MORE COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THURSDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO "COOL" TO THE LOW TO MID 90S (LOCALLY UPPER
90S). HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO DECREASE SLIGHTLY, RUNNING AROUND 105-
108 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MUCH OF THE EASTERN SHORE LIKELY LESS
THAN 105. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN SHORE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, WITH EVEN HIGHER COVERAGE COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA.
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, A FEW STORMS AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO CONTINUED
HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK
(1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL, WITH WPC PLACING ALL BUT
THE SOUTHEAST IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED.
BY FRIDAY, EXPECT THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE LINGERING TO OUR NORTH
TO SLIP INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A BACKDOOR
FASHION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREAS WHERE HIGHS STAY IN THE 80S. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOWER 90S. WE MAY SEE A FEW SPOTS (MAINLY SE) APPROACH 105
DEGREE HEAT INDICES, BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY HEAT ADVISORIES AT
THIS TIME. SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS THE NW DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH FRIDAY LIKELY HAVING
THE MOST ACTIVITY OF THE WEEK. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS,
STRONG WIND GUSTS OR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH DAILY, DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED STORMS.
THE FRONT THAT DROPPED INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY
LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS WITH US
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS WHAT WE SAW EARLIER THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR A FEW SPOTS AS THE FORECAST IS FINE TUNED. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE EACH DAY ACROSS THE NW. PWATS
INCREASE TO 2.0"+ FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 135 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 18Z/25 TAF PERIOD. FEW-SCT CLOUD
COVER IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE THIS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH COULD BRIEFLY SEE HIGH
LEVEL BKN LATER THIS EVENING AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION NEARBY.
SPEAKING OF CONVECTION, MOST TERMINALS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED BY SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY SINCE THEY WILL PRIMARILY STAY
IN THE PIEDMONT. RIC COULD SEE A STRAY STORM LATER THIS
EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME. WITH HUMID CONDITIONS ONGOING, THERE COULD ONCE
AGAIN BE SOME SPOTTY REDUCED VSBYS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK: OTHERWISE, PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. LATE
AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THU-SUN (HIGHEST CHC INLAND)
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
MARINE
AS OF 340 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA BREEZE TODAY DAY AS THE
LAND HEATS UP, THEN WILL BECOME GENERALLY VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
AS THE HIGH SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, WINDS WILL SETTLE ON A S/SW WIND DIRECTION, THOUGH
SEA BREEZES WILL STILL IMPACT AREAS CLOSE TO SHORE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN MARGINALLY THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
SINCE THE LOCAL WATERS WILL NOT BE CENTERED DIRECTLY UNDER THE
HIGH, BUT WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KTS.
WHILE WELL INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WINDS MAY INCREASE TO
POTENTIALLY MARGINAL SCA IN THE BAY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. OTHERWISE, ONE COULD SAY IT IS GENERALLY
"SMOOTH-SAILING" UNTIL THEN! ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WHICH COULD BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE WATERS, WITH
WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER WITHIN ANY CONVECTION.
SEAS IN THE OCEAN REMAIN AROUND 2 FT FOR THE WEEK, INCREASING TO 2-3
FT BY FRIDAY. WAVES IN THE BAY AND RIVERS OF 1-2 FT OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WED 6/25:
*RECORD HIGH TIED TUE 6/24 AT SBY
DATE RICHMOND NORFOLK SALISBURY ELIZ. CITY
06-25 100(1952) 100(1952) 99(1914) 100(1952)
DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WED 6/25:
*FOR 6/24 SBY AND ECG SET RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND
RIC AND ORF TIED THEIR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
DATE RICHMOND NORFOLK SALISBURY ELIZ. CITY
06-25 76(1921) 79(1880) 75(1909) 76(1949)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ021>024.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/RMM
NEAR TERM...AJB/AC
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...SW/NB
CLIMATE...
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