492
FXUS61 KAKQ 261846
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
246 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LARGE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, BRINGING VERY HOT
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. LOW-END CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAKE A RETURN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS OF 245 PM EDT THURSDAY...
- HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TODAY, WITH MORE
COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MUCH OF THE SE CONUS STILL CENTERED SW OF THE LOCAL AREA. A BACKDOOR
FRONT LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC IS SAGGING SOUTH TOWARD
THE AREA. THE UL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. TEMPS AS OF LATEST OBS ARE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 103-107 RANGE AND THE
HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 7PM TONIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
REGARDING CONVECTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WE ARE
LOOKING AT A PRETTY SIMILAR SET UP TO YESTERDAY. ALREADY SEEING A
FEW STORMS POP UP ON RADAR AND THERE'S A FAIRLY ROBUST CU FIELD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATELLITE. ONCE AGAIN, THERE IS NO
SHORTAGE OF INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG ON
MESOANALYSIS (1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE). THERE'S NOT REALLY ANY SHEAR
TO SPEAK OF AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT, WHICH MAY SERVE TO LIMIT STORM
STRENGTH. HOWEVER, DCAPE IS SITTING AT 1000-1500 J/KG, SO ANY
STRONGER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. THE SPC DID ADD A SLIGHT RISK FOR AREAS NW OF RICHMOND
WITH THE MID-DAY UPDATE. ELSEWHERE, A MARGINAL RISK REMAINS IN
PLACE. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND STORMS MOTIONS SLOWER THAN A
SNAIL, HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED ISTANCES OF FLOODING
(MARGINAL ERO FROM WPC). ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE N/NW THIS EVENING (40-50% POPS).
PRECIP MOSTLY TAPERS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT COULD SEE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR N INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 347 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TO THE
NE COUNTIES AND MD EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARDS THROUGH
FRIDAY, FINALLY SETTLING ACROSS THE MD EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES AND
OUR NORTHEAST VA COUNTIES. WHILE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
STILL EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S, THE FRONT WILL BRING
SOME RELIEF TO OUR NE COUNTIES AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL SUBTLY DROP AS WELL, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY
LESS HUMID CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY FALL
WITHIN IN THE 95-103F RANGE, SO A HEAT ADVISORY MAY NOT BE NEEDED
FRIDAY. WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THIS
WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A SUBTLE LIFTING MECHANISM FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SOME STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG TO SEVERE, SO SPC HAS
MOST OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
FRIDAY, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL REMAINING
THE MAIN THREAT. THERE ALSO REMAINS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING, SO WPC HAS PLACED A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN A MARGINAL ERO ON FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY, THE FRONT WILL START TO
LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH, SO WHILE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE, THEY WILL NOT BE AS HIGH IN COVERAGE AS FRIDAY. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE STILL ACROSS THE REGION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 97-104F, THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 105F+ HEAT INDICES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH DAILY, DIURNAL CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED STORMS.
THE WEAKENED UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO THE CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS WHAT
WE SAW THIS PAST WEEK, HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 98-103F. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY TRENDS IN THE HEAT, AS SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS COULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS REACHING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY, WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF IT AND PWS APPROACHING 2.0"+
LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT LINGER ACROSS
NE NC THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IS LOW AS IT IS WELL INTO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE OUR FORECAST AS
THIS BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 135 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, EXPECTING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP, INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIC AND SBY ARE MOST
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTION. WENT WITH PROB30S RATHER
THAN TEMPOS SINCE COVERAGE NEAR THE TERMINALS SHOULD BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE. ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM WILL LIKELY
CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND MAY HAVE STRONG WINDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TOMORROW, A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS OVER THE AREA. MVFR, THEN
IFR, CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT SBY ONCE THE FRONT MOVES S OF IT
(~09-12Z). DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES IT, COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE LOWER CIGS AT RIC, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED LATER FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. HOWEVER, LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EVERY DAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 245 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE DAY AS THE LAND
HEATS UP, THEN WILL BECOME GENERALLY VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
THE SYNOPTIC WINDS BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY AREAWIDE. SEA
BREEZES MAY STILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE NEAR THE SHORE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE WIND TO THE E OR SE. A FEW WIND GUSTS
TO 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS RANGE GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF POTENTIAL
CONVECTION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD BRING
STRONG WIND GUSTS TO THE WATERS, WITH WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER WITHIN
ANY CONVECTION.
SEAS IN THE OCEAN REMAIN AROUND 2 FT FOR THE WEEK, INCREASING TO 2-3
FT BY FRIDAY. WAVES IN THE BAY AND RIVERS OF 1-2 FT OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>024.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ014>017-031-
032-102.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-
064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ080>083-
088>090-092-093-095>098-512>516-523>525.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/RMM
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJB/SW
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