242
FXUS61 KAKQ 271733
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
133 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARDS TODAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY, WITH SOME BEING STRONG
TO SEVERE. AS THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA, EXPECT
DAILY DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
WITH A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 920 AM EDT FRIDAY...
- HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN TRIMMED DOWN TO JUST NC COUNTIES
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TO
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TODAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH-FLOODING POSSIBLE.
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO REACH THE
US-460 CORRIDOR. N OF THE FRONT, THICK CLOUD COVER AND NE WINDS
ARE KEEPING TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AS OF LATEST OBS. S OF THE
FRONT, SKIES ARE CLEAR AND TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. WHILE THE FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STALL OUT THEN LIFT
BACK NORTH TODAY, RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN
RELATION TO THE FRONT INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE
HEAT ADVISORY WILL FAIL TO REACH THE 105+ HEAT INDICES.
THEREFORE, THE ADVISORY IS BEING TRIMMED DOWN TO JUST THE NORTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A LIFTING MECHANISM
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO SCATTERED STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE STRONG SURFACE
HEATING EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, DCAPE VALUES WILL BE BE
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 500-1300 J/KG WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONG
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WITHIN ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THESE STORMS DECAY, THEY WILL SHOOT OUT
OUTFLOWS, WHICH WILL ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. SPC HAS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA (EXCLUDING SE
VA, NE NC, AND EASTERN SHORE) IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. THE STEERING FLOW FOR THESE STORMS
WILL BE LIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW STORM MOTIONS. THE SLOW
STORM MOTION COMBINED WITH PW VALUES OF 2"+ ALONG AND ADJACENT TO
THE FRONT WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A
MARGINAL ERO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH-
FLOODING. WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP STALLING WILL BE WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FLOODING IS.
AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES THIS EVENING, CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW SUIT,
THOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS AFTER SUNSET CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 415 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HEAT CONTINUES ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
DAILY, DIURNAL ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE.
THE FRONT WILL START TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, SO WHILE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE, THEY WILL NOT BE AS HIGH IN COVERAGE AS TODAY DUE TO THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND A TRIGGERING MECHANISM. WITH THE
WEAKENED UPPER RIDGE STILL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
97-104F, THOUGH SOME AREAS COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 105F+ HEAT
INDICES MAINLY NO SATURDAY SO A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 415 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WHILE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS WHAT
WE SAW THIS PAST WEEK, HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 98-104F. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY TRENDS IN THE HEAT, AS SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS COULD LEAD TO SOME AREAS REACHING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY, WITH MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF IT AND PWS APPROACHING 2.0"+
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH ANY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. STEERING FLOW DOES PICK UP
SOME BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY HELP WITH THE FLOODING
THREAT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE IN THE AROUND 90 DEGREES, DEW POINTS WILL BE TRENDING
DOWNWARDS BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL DROP THE HEAT INDEX WELL BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SECONDARY FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING DEW POINTS DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 60S BY LATE NEXT WEEK, MAKING FOR AN ALMOST COMFORTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN COMPARISON TO THIS PAST WEEKS HEAT WAVE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS HUNG UP ACROSS THE AREA AS OF
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS. ALONG AND TO THE N OF THE FRONT, THICK CLOUD
COVER AND MVFR/IFR CIGS PERSIST. THIS IS IMPACTING ALL LOCAL
TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECG. LATER THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK NORTH,
BREAKING UP CLOUD COVER AND RAISING CIGS IN ITS WAKE. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY POPPED UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT. MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD NOT BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND ELEVATED WIND GUSTS AT RIC
AND ECG. STORMS GENERALLY TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EARLY MORNING FOG MAY RETURN TOMORROW WITH BEST CHANCE
AT RIC AND SBY. WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, BECOMING SW TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK
AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. HOWEVER, LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EVERY DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 125 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY SUB-SCA, BUT WITH ELEVATED E-NE WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TODAY.
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS SATURDAY-MONDAY (OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION), WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
THE LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES ~1008MB LOW PRESSURE ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS E-SE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. SEASONALLY COOL
1026+MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND, AND AS IT
BUILDS SOUTH, IS NUDGING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL
WATERS. AS OF THIS WRITING, WINDS ARE E-NE AT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
OVER THE BAY, EASTERN VA RIVERS AND THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE
VA/NC BORDER. WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE STILL AVERAGING 10-15
WITH GUSTS TO ~20 KT. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS
INTO THE CAROLINAS, WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE E-SE ~5-10 KT. SEAS
HAVE INCREASED TO ~4 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, 2-3 FT
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. WAVES 1-2 FT, BUILDING TO
STILL EXPECT THE HIGH TO STOP ITS SOUTHERN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON,
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO STALL BRIEFLY OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING, THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
LIFTS OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING AROUND TO THE SSE TONIGHT, THEN SSW AND EVENTUALLY NW
OVERNIGHT. HAVE SEEN SOME PATCHY MARINE FOG ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE WINDS PRECLUDING DENSE SEA FOG TO A GOOD DEGREE.
AS WINDS TURN BACK SSW OVERNIGHT, EXPECT WE LIKELY SEE SOME MORE
FOG, AND POSSIBLY SOME DENSE SEA FOG FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND. WINDS REMAIN SSW SATURDAY, AVERAGING AROUND 10-15
KT. NWPS INDICATES SOME 5-7 SECOND WAVE PERIODS DEVELOPING TOMORROW,
A COMBINATION OF E-NE SWELL AND SOME WIND WAVES. THE DEVELOPING
CHOPPY SEAS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED A BIT, THOUGH AGAIN
REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AT ~3-4 FT. SOME SSW CHANNELING WINDS
IN THE LOWER JAMES AND LOWER BAY COULD BRING SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SAT EVENING, BUT WITH WINDS STILL
LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS, WILL HOLD OFF WITH ANY SCA
FOR NOW.
THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED UPPER GREAT LAKES LOW SWINGS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, DROPPING ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ACT TO
BRIEFLY TURNING WINDS TO THE NW LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
WITH WINDS TURNING ONSHORE BY AFTN BEFORE AGAIN TURNING BACK SSW
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT AND TAKES THE FRONT WITH IT. THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE GRADIENT
WITH AHEAD OF THAT NEXT SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT TIGHTENS A LITTLE
BIT MORE SUCH THAT SOME LOW-END SCAS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
BAY/RIVERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE THAT FRONT
WASHES OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS, WITH LOW RIP RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RMM/NB
NEAR TERM...AC/NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...MAM
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