818
FXUS61 KAKQ 271911
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
311 PM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARDS TODAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY, WITH SOME BEING STRONG
TO SEVERE. AS THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA, EXPECT
DAILY DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
WITH A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
AS OF 240 PM EDT FRIDAY...
- HEAT ADVISORY FOR NC COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES
OF FLASH- FLOODING POSSIBLE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS STILL HUNG UP JUST NORTH OF THE US-460
CORRIDOR AS OF AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS. THICK CLOUD COVER PERSISTS N
OF THE FRONT, KEEPING TEMPS A LOT COOLER WITH LATEST OBS SHOWING THE
LOW TO MID 70S (BUT STILL PRETTY HUMID). A LOT WARMER SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AND HEAT INDICES OF
100-105. A HEAT ADVISORY FOR NE NC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT N LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS TONIGHT DROP INTO THE LOW 70S FOR MOST,
MID 70S NEAR THE SE COAST.
ALREADY SEEING STORMS POP UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS AN AREA
OF SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. FOR THE STORMS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT, WE WILL SEE A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. LIKE THE LAST TWO DAYS, INSTABILITY IS RATHER HIGH WITH MLCAPE
NEARING 3000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND DCAPE IS
NEAR 1300 J/KG. WITH THIS IN MIND, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT. HOWEVER, ONCE AGAIN, THERE IS LITTLE TO NO SHEAR TO HELP THE
STORMS GET TO THAT POINT. SPC DID TRIM THE MARGINAL RISK WITH THE
MID-DAY UPDATE, BUT IT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES.
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND A MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL YIELD A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS WELL THAT COULD LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF
FLOODING. THE WPC HAS MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL ERO FOR INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE FA. SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING, PERSISTING THE LONGEST IN WESTERN COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HEAT CONTINUES ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
DAILY, DIURNAL ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N ON SAT. MEANWHILE, THE UL RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT AND FLOW BECOMES MORE OR LESS ZONAL OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT, BUT
WITHOUT THE FRONT NEARBY AND THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT, COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE A LOT LIGHTER THAN EVEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS RETURN TO THE 90S BOTH SAT AND SUN. HEAT INDICES
FOR TOMORROW GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 100-103 RANGE, SO WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY HEAT ADVISORIES. SUN LOOKS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER, SO
COULD POTENTIALLY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES IN THE SE FOR HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105-107 RANGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S MON AND TUES. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY STAY UNDER 103 FOR HEAT INDICES, THOUGH COULD LOCALLY BE
HIGHER. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF IT AND PWS APPROACHING 2.0"+ EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH ANY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. STEERING FLOW DOES PICK UP
SOME BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY HELP WITH THE
FLOODING THREAT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT DOES NOT
LOOK TERRIBLY STRONG, BUT WED SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AND
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP A FEW DEGREES AS WELL. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 90S, WHICH WILL BE A RELIEF COMPARED
TO THE PROLONGED 100+. A SECONDARY FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING DEW
POINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S BY LATE NEXT WEEK, MAKING FOR AN
ALMOST COMFORTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN COMPARISON TO THIS PAST WEEKS
HEAT WAVE.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS HUNG UP ACROSS THE AREA AS OF
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS. ALONG AND TO THE N OF THE FRONT, THICK CLOUD
COVER AND MVFR/IFR CIGS PERSIST. THIS IS IMPACTING ALL LOCAL
TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECG. LATER THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK NORTH,
BREAKING UP CLOUD COVER AND RAISING CIGS IN ITS WAKE. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY POPPED UP SOUTH OF THE FRONT. MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD NOT BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND ELEVATED WIND GUSTS AT RIC
AND ECG. STORMS GENERALLY TAPER OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EARLY MORNING FOG MAY RETURN TOMORROW WITH BEST CHANCE
AT RIC AND SBY. WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, BECOMING SW TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK
AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. HOWEVER, LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EVERY DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 125 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY SUB-SCA, BUT WITH ELEVATED E-NE WINDS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TODAY.
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS SATURDAY-MONDAY (OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION), WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
THE LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES ~1008MB LOW PRESSURE ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS E-SE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. SEASONALLY COOL
1026+MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND, AND AS IT
BUILDS SOUTH, IS NUDGING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL
WATERS. AS OF THIS WRITING, WINDS ARE E-NE AT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
OVER THE BAY, EASTERN VA RIVERS AND THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE
VA/NC BORDER. WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE STILL AVERAGING 10-15
WITH GUSTS TO ~20 KT. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS
INTO THE CAROLINAS, WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE E-SE ~5-10 KT. SEAS
HAVE INCREASED TO ~4 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, 2-3 FT
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. WAVES 1-2 FT, BUILDING TO
STILL EXPECT THE HIGH TO STOP ITS SOUTHERN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON,
ALLOWING THE FRONT TO STALL BRIEFLY OVER THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING, THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
LIFTS OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS
VEERING AROUND TO THE SSE TONIGHT, THEN SSW AND EVENTUALLY NW
OVERNIGHT. HAVE SEEN SOME PATCHY MARINE FOG ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE WINDS PRECLUDING DENSE SEA FOG TO A GOOD DEGREE.
AS WINDS TURN BACK SSW OVERNIGHT, EXPECT WE LIKELY SEE SOME MORE
FOG, AND POSSIBLY SOME DENSE SEA FOG FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND. WINDS REMAIN SSW SATURDAY, AVERAGING AROUND 10-15
KT. NWPS INDICATES SOME 5-7 SECOND WAVE PERIODS DEVELOPING TOMORROW,
A COMBINATION OF E-NE SWELL AND SOME WIND WAVES. THE DEVELOPING
CHOPPY SEAS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED A BIT, THOUGH AGAIN
REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AT ~3-4 FT. SOME SSW CHANNELING WINDS
IN THE LOWER JAMES AND LOWER BAY COULD BRING SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SAT EVENING, BUT WITH WINDS STILL
LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS, WILL HOLD OFF WITH ANY SCA
FOR NOW.
THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED UPPER GREAT LAKES LOW SWINGS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, DROPPING ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ACT TO
BRIEFLY TURNING WINDS TO THE NW LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
WITH WINDS TURNING ONSHORE BY AFTN BEFORE AGAIN TURNING BACK SSW
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT AND TAKES THE FRONT WITH IT. THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE GRADIENT
WITH AHEAD OF THAT NEXT SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT TIGHTENS A LITTLE
BIT MORE SUCH THAT SOME LOW-END SCAS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
BAY/RIVERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE THAT FRONT
WASHES OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS, WITH LOW RIP RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW STRONG FLOOD TIDES IN A ROW
SINCE LATE LAST NIGHT'S TIDE CYCLE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE
WATER PUSHING INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, WITH ELEVATED TIDE CYCLES
THAT REMAIN BELOW ANY MINOR THRESHOLDS IN THE LOWER BAY. AS
WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE S THIS EVENING, EXPECTING THAT WATER TO
PUSH UP THE BAY TOWARD COASTAL COMMUNITIES ON THE BAY SIDE OF
THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE, RESULTING IN INCREASING TIDAL
DEPARTURES AND SOME TIDE LEVELS REACHING TO NUISANCE OR NEAR-
MINOR WATER LEVELS WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF HIGH TIDE ON THE MD
EASTERN SHORE. DUE TO THE NARROW AREA IMPACTED, THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE EVENT, AND THE LOWERING ASTRONOMICAL TIDE GIVEN
THE RECENT NEW MOON, WILL GO WITH A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR
DORCHESTER, WICOMICO, AND SOMERSET COUNTIES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RMM/NB
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC/NB
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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