747
FXUS61 KAKQ 280745
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
345 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT. AS
THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA, EXPECT DAILY DIURNAL
RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH A POSSIBLE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 750 PM EDT FRIDAY...
- HEAT ADVISORY FOR NC COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT BUT COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO LINGER NEAR THE US-460 CORRIDOR
THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS WERE ABLE TO FORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING
AS THE RESERVOIR OF GREATER INSTABILITY WAS SHUNTED TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTO NC. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY
WITH RESPECT TO FURTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUST POPS DOWNWARD AND FOCUSED COVERAGE
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, BUT EVEN HERE, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
RATHER SPARSE. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
BUT LINGERING LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON FOR MOST
OF THE NIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF 460. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
CLEARING MAY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORFOLK METRO BY MID
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS, REMAINING MILD AND MUGGY
TONIGHT WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOW 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
THE MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE VISIBILITY POTENTIALLY DROPS BELOW
1/2 MILE. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OR DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY
BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 305 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HEAT CONTINUES ALONG WITH A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH
DAILY, DIURNAL ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N ON SAT. MEANWHILE, THE UL RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT AND FLOW BECOMES MORE OR LESS ZONAL OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT, BUT
WITHOUT THE FRONT NEARBY AND THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT, COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE A LOT LIGHTER THAN EVEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS RETURN TO THE 90S BOTH SAT AND SUN. HEAT INDICES
FOR TOMORROW GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 100-103 RANGE, SO WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY HEAT ADVISORIES. SUN LOOKS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER, SO
COULD POTENTIALLY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORIES IN THE SE FOR HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105-107 RANGE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 310 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S MON AND TUES. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY STAY UNDER 103 FOR HEAT INDICES, THOUGH COULD LOCALLY BE
HIGHER. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY, WITH
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF IT AND PWS APPROACHING 2.0"+ EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH ANY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. STEERING FLOW DOES PICK UP
SOME BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY HELP WITH THE
FLOODING THREAT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT DOES NOT
LOOK TERRIBLY STRONG, BUT WED SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AND
DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP A FEW DEGREES AS WELL. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 90S, WHICH WILL BE A RELIEF COMPARED
TO THE PROLONGED 100+. A SECONDARY FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING DEW
POINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S BY LATE NEXT WEEK, MAKING FOR AN
ALMOST COMFORTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN COMPARISON TO THIS PAST WEEKS
HEAT WAVE.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 127 AM EDT SATURDAY...
IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT RIC, SBY, AND PHF THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING. INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS COULD REACH ORF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO, BUT OTHERWISE ORF WILL ONLY SEE A FEW HOURS OF POSSIBLE MVFR
CIGS BEFORE SUNRISE. THE TIMING OF IMPROVED CIGS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON WHEN THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA LIFTS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS ASIDE FROM
ECG THROUGH SUNRISE, POSSIBLY LINGERING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AT
SBY. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE BY MID-LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE, BUT WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP WEST OF THE TERMINALS SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF STORMS IN ANY OF THE TAFS. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, BECOMING SW 5-10 KTS ON
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. HOWEVER, LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EVERY DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND.
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY (OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION), WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
THE LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE
NEAR THE VA-NC BORDER, WITH GENERALLY E WINDS N OF THE FRONT,
AND SSW WINDS ACROSS NC WATERS S OF THE BOUNDARY. SEAS ARE ~4FT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, AND ~3 FT OVER THE SOUTH.
WAVES WERE 1-2 FT. ADDITIONALLY, AREAS OF MARINE DENSE FOG
CONTINUE N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SSE TOWARDS SUNRISE
ACROSS THE LOWER BAY, AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SW. IT WILL TAKE
AWHILE LONGER TO THE NORTH, WHERE WINDS MAY STAY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INTO THE AFTN. OBS SHOW 7-8 SECOND WAVE PERIODS
A COMBINATION OF E-NE SWELL AND SOME WIND WAVES, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO SEAS STAYING ELEVATED A BIT AT ~3-4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, DROPPING ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ACT TO BRIEFLY TURNING WINDS
TO THE NW OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH WINDS TURNING ONSHORE BY
AFTN BEFORE AGAIN TURNING BACK SSW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS
OUT AND TAKES THE FRONT WITH IT. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE GRADIENT WITH AHEAD OF THAT WILL
BE STRONGER, SUCH THAT SOME LOW- END SCAS ARE LOOKING LIKELY FOR
THE BAY/RIVERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE THAT
FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS, WITH LOW RIP RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ONSHORE FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO LEAD TO SOME WATER PILING UP THE
BAY, THOUGH THE LATEST EBB TIDE WAS ABOUT EQUAL TO THE PREVIOUS
FLOOD TIDE SO THE CURRENT TIDE CYCLE WILL PROBABLY BE THE ONLY
ONE WITH NUISANCE TO LOW-END MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THE MARYLAND
SIDE OF THE BAY. THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH 6
AM THIS MORNING FOR DORCHESTER, WICOMICO, AND SOMERSET
COUNTIES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652.
SYNOPSIS...RMM/NB
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC/NB
AVIATION...RHR/NB
MARINE...LKB/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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