462
FXUS61 KAKQ 281037
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
637 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY. AS
THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTH AWAY FROM THE AREA, EXPECT DAILY DIURNAL
RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH A POSSIBLE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 638 AM EDT SATURDAY...
- AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
- TEMPERATURES QUICKLY INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE LOCAL AREA AND MD EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES.
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A BACKDOOR FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN VA THIS MORNING. GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS A THICK
CLOUD LAYER TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO
THE SOUTH. WITH MINIMAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, AREAS OF FOG HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP, WITH THE THICKEST FOG IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND EASTERN SHORE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
NORTH OF THE FRONT AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE SOUTH.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD TODAY, CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF
FOG WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO QUICKLY RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST
TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S, BUT SHOULD REMAIN UNDER HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH THE FRONT MOVING OUT OF OUR AREA LATER
TODAY, WE WILL LOSE A TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE W/N COUNTIES, THEY WILL NOT BE AS HIGH
IN COVERAGE. A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE, AND SPC HAS THE VERY NORTHERN FRINGES OF FORECAST AREA AND
THE MD EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. OVERNIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 352 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WITH THE BACK DOOR FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND GENERALLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED, DIURNAL CONVECTION SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DESPITE HIGH PW VALUES AND GOOD DAYTIME
HEATING. THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED ACROSS THE
REGION THE PAST WEEK WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND SHIFTING
OFFSHORE, IT WILL STILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED. HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 97-104F, HOWEVER, SOME AREAS COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 105F+ HEAT INDICES SO A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS AND ISSUE ONE IF DEEMED NECESSARY. ON MONDAY, ANOTHER
FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST, PULLING EVEN
HIGHER PW VALUES TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 70S EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 352 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SOME
RELIEF TO THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWER RAIN
CHANCES TUESDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL POTENTIALLY BE ABLE TO
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S, MAKING FOR ONE LAST OPPRESSIVELY HOT DAY
(FOR NOW). SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR THE NC/ VA
BORDER, WHICH WOULD BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO SE VA AND NE NC
WEDNESDAY THROUGH POTENTIALLY THURSDAY. THOUGH THE FRONT IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE IN TERMS OF AIRMASS CHANGE, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DROP A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. THE MAIN SOURCE OF RELIEF WILL COME IN THE
FORM OF SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS, LEADING TO LOWERED HEAT INDICES.
A SECONDARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
DROPPING DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC BY LATE
NEXT WEEK AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SO TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 90S BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LUCKILY, THE LOWER DEW
POINTS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND, AND THE HEAT INDEX IS FORECAST TO *ONLY* REACH THE 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 638 AM EDT SATURDAY...
IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY PREVAILING AT SBY AND RIC. INTERMITTENT
IFR CIGS ARE OCCURING AT BOTH ORF AND PHF, SO TEMPOS ARE CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. THE TIMING OF IMPROVED CIGS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA LIFTS THROUGH THE TERMINALS. PATCHY
TO DENSE FOG IS CURRENTLY PLAGUING SBY, WITH IFR TO LIFR VIS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE, MVFR
VIS IS BEING SEEN AT RIC, ORF, AND PHF. ECG IS ALL ON ITS OWN IN
TERMS OF VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS, WITH NO REDUCTION IN VIS OR CIGS
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE BY MID-LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE, BUT WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP WEST OF THE
TERMINALS SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF STORMS IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, BECOMING SW 5-10 KTS
ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH. HOWEVER, LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EVERY DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND.
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY (OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION), WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
THE LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE
NEAR THE VA-NC BORDER, WITH GENERALLY E WINDS N OF THE FRONT,
AND SSW WINDS ACROSS NC WATERS S OF THE BOUNDARY. SEAS ARE ~4FT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, AND ~3 FT OVER THE SOUTH.
WAVES WERE 1-2 FT. ADDITIONALLY, AREAS OF MARINE DENSE FOG
CONTINUE N OF PARRAMORE ISLAND.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO THE SSE TOWARDS SUNRISE
ACROSS THE LOWER BAY, AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SW. IT WILL TAKE
AWHILE LONGER TO THE NORTH, WHERE WINDS MAY STAY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INTO THE AFTN. OBS SHOW 7-8 SECOND WAVE PERIODS
A COMBINATION OF E-NE SWELL AND SOME WIND WAVES, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO SEAS STAYING ELEVATED A BIT AT ~3-4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, DROPPING ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD ACT TO BRIEFLY TURNING WINDS
TO THE NW OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH WINDS TURNING ONSHORE BY
AFTN BEFORE AGAIN TURNING BACK SSW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS
OUT AND TAKES THE FRONT WITH IT. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE GRADIENT WITH AHEAD OF THAT WILL
BE STRONGER, SUCH THAT SOME LOW- END SCAS ARE LOOKING LIKELY FOR
THE BAY/RIVERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE THAT
FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS, WITH LOW RIP RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ONSHORE FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO LEAD TO SOME WATER PILING UP THE
BAY, THOUGH THE LATEST EBB TIDE WAS ABOUT EQUAL TO THE PREVIOUS
FLOOD TIDE SO THE CURRENT TIDE CYCLE WILL PROBABLY BE THE ONLY
ONE WITH NUISANCE TO LOW-END MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THE MARYLAND
SIDE OF THE BAY. THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH 6
AM THIS MORNING FOR DORCHESTER, WICOMICO, AND SOMERSET
COUNTIES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-652.
SYNOPSIS...AC/NB
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...RHR/NB
MARINE...LKB/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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