485
FXUS61 KAKQ 291929
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
329 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH DAILY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY TUESDAY BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, DEW POINTS WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES AND BRING SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HUMIDITY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AS OF 950 AM EDT SUNDAY...
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE.
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. ALOFT, AN EXPANSIVE
RIDGE IS PLANTED ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND GENERALLY
ZONAL FLOW OVER OUR AREA. SUNNY THIS MORNING WITH SOME CU
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN SHORE. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, AND THE WIND
IS LIGHT OUT OF THE W TO SW.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF ANY
DEVELOPING STORMS, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED.
HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 97-104F, AND WHILE SOME AREAS
COULD BRIEFLY HIT 105F+ HEAT INDICES ESPECIALLY IN SE VA AND NE
NC, HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY. THIS AFTERNOON
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARDS OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS WILL HELP IGNITE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP
INCREASE INSTABILITY, WITH ABUNDANT MLCAPE AVAILABLE TO
DEVELOPING STORMS AND MINIMAL INHIBITION EXPECTED. THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW SHEAR VALUES, BUT ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM ARE STILL POSSIBLE. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE
AREA (EXCLUDING FAR SE VA AND NE NC) IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. PW
VALUES ACROSS OUR AREA WILL NEARING 2+" AND STEERING FLOW WILL
BE RELATIVELY WEAK, WHICH WILL LEAD TO SLOWER MOVING STORMS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SLOWER STORM MOTION AND AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL ERO FOR TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER SOME
OVERNIGHT, BUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL LINGER THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT REMAINS PARKED TO OUR NORTH,
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE NW PORTION OF THE
LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP LOWER TO MID 70S NW AND THE
MID TO UPPER 70S SE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 327 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
- FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
THE WEAKENED FRONT WILL LINGER TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY, SO ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
WILL FAVOR THE W/NW COUNTIES IS EXPECTED. THE ENVIRONMENT ON MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE GOOD INSTABILITY AND STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING, AND SPC HAS PLACED THE NW PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN. WHILE STEERING FLOW
WILL STILL BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE, IT IS FORECAST TO PICK UP SOME BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY HELP LESSEN ANY THREAT OF
FLASH-FLOODING, THOUGH IT CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT. AS CONVECTION
WANES OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY
NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STILL
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S, MAKING FOR ONE LAST OPPRESSIVELY HOT DAY
(FOR NOW). AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON TUESDAY, IT WILL HELP
PULL EVEN HIGHER PW VALUES INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR
MORE ORGANIZED AND HIGHER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION BY THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 327 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FRONT MAY STALL NEAR VA/NC BORDER, BRINGING INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES TO SE VA AND NE NC WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- LOWER DEW POINTS WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE AREA.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE NC/ VA
BORDER, WHICH WOULD BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO SE VA AND NE NC
WEDNESDAY THROUGH POTENTIALLY THURSDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
THOUGH THE FRONT IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE IN TERMS OF AIRMASS CHANGE,
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DROP A FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP A
FEW DEGREES, WHICH WILL FINALLY BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE AREA. A
SECONDARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY,
DROPPING DEW POINTS FURTHER INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. UPPER
RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC BY
LATE NEXT WEEK AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SO TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE 90S BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. LUCKILY, THE
LOWER DEW POINTS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND THE HEAT
INDEX IS FORECAST TO ONLY REACH THE 90S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BY LATE WEEK, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF
18Z, WITH A COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION ALIGNED W-E ACROSS PA.
VFR WITH DEVELOPING AFTN CU AND A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE
SEA-BREEZE E OF SBY. THE WIND IS GENERALLY SW 5-10KT, AND WILL
POTENTIALLY SHIFT TO ENE WITH THE SEA-BREEZE AT ORF. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, ONLY RIC HAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR THUNDER LATER THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS (03-06Z). MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AT SBY
LATER TONIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY. PRIMARILY VFR MONDAY WITH A
20-30% CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TOWARD THE COAST AND A 30-50% CHC
FARTHER INLAND. THE WIND WILL MAINLY BE SW 5-10KT MONDAY AND
POTENTIALLY SHIFT TO ENE AT ORF WITH THE SEA-BREEZE DURING THE
AFTN.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN INCREASED CHC OF MAINLY
AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. VFR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW (OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION).
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR THE CHES. BAY, LOWER JAMES
RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND EARLY TUESDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH, KEEPING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT
AND MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. SW WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ~10 KT WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE, SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
LIKELY REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT (WHICH WILL BE
SOMEWHAT STRONGER). REMAINING OUT OF THE SW, LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE CHES.
BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND. LOCAL WIND PROBS SHOWS
>80% CHC OF 18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM ~06Z TO ~15Z TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.
WAVES ARE CURRENTLY ~1 FT AND SEAS ARE 2-3 FT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 3-4 FT IN THE CHES. BAY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE SEAS PEAKING TUESDAY EVENING AT 4-5
FT (3-4 FT NEARSHORE). SEAS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT WILL FALL BACK TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS, WITH LOW RIP RISK OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. LOW RIP CURRENT RISK
IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BEACHES TOMORROW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/NB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/NB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...KMC/LKB
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