774
FXUS61 KAKQ 292308
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
708 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY LATER
TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE.
GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LARGE AMPLITUDE
UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE IS CO-LOCATED AT THE SURFACE, WITH A COLD FRONT ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ALIGNED W-E ACROSS PA, AND A
TROUGH TO THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH
AND ALONG THE SEA- BREEZE. SEASONALLY HOT AND HUMID WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
LOWER 90S INLAND. SCATTERED AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED SHOWERS/TSTMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS IN A HIGHLY UNSTABLE BUT WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. MOST TSTMS SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE, BUT THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM WET
MICROBURSTS IN A HIGH PW AIRMASS. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING AND LARGELY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.
WARM AND HUMID WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S W
TO MID TO UPPER 70S E.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
- FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL LINGER TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY, SO ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FORECAST THAT
WILL FAVOR THE W/NW COUNTIES. THE ENVIRONMENT MONDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE GOOD INSTABILITY AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING,
AND SPC HAS THE NW THIRD OF OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID
MONDAY. FORECAST HIGHS ARE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT WITHIN 1
ST DEV. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S DURING PEAK HEATING
SHOULD YIELD HEAT INDICES OF 98-104F. CONVECTION WANES OVERNIGHT
WITH ANOTHER WARM HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOCALLY
UPPER 70S.
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM THE NW TUESDAY.
PW VALUES INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BETTER FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY AFTN
AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS COULD RESULT
IN IMPROVED STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS. HOT AND HUMID
TUESDAY, BUT NOT UNUSUAL FOR 1 JULY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND PEAK HEAT INDICES OF
98-104F.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FRONT MAY STALL NEAR VA/NC BORDER, BRINGING INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES TO SE VA AND NE NC WEDNESDAY.
- LOWER DEW POINTS WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE AREA.
29/12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL
NEAR THE NC/ VA BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH WOULD
BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO SE VA AND NE NC. OTHERWISE,
29/12Z EPS/GEFS PUSH THE FRONT S OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY, WITH
PW VALUES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS,
THE SECONDARY FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, AND POPS ARE LESS THAN
15% AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY
WITH POPS RANGING FROM 15-30% N TO 60-70% S WITH THE FRONT
LINGERING OVER THE LOCALLY AREA. HIGHS RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S
THURSDAY, BUT DEWPOINTS DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE IN
THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90F BEHIND THE SECONDARY FRONT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, SO SOME RELATIVE
RELIEF (AT LEAST FOR EARLY JULY STANDARDS) ARRIVES LATER THIS
WEEK. UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC BY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS TREND BACK TOWARD THE 90S,
BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOWER TO RECOVER AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. LOWS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 710 PM EDT SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF
30/00Z, WITH A COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION ALIGNED W-E ACROSS
PA. THE WIND IS GENERALLY SW 5-10KT, AND WILL POTENTIALLY SHIFT
TO ENE WITH THE SEA-BREEZE AT ORF. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS RIC AND
SBY. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED FOR BOTH THESE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE 00-2Z. WHILE FURTHER SOUTH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT A
STORM WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A
SHOWER IN THE VICINITY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
(03-06Z). MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AT SBY LATER TONIGHT
TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY. PRIMARILY VFR MONDAY WITH A 20-30% CHC OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS TOWARD THE COAST AND A 30-50% CHC FARTHER INLAND.
THE WIND WILL MAINLY BE SW 5-10KT MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY SHIFT
TO ENE AT ORF WITH THE SEA-BREEZE DURING THE AFTN.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN INCREASED CHC OF MAINLY
AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. VFR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW (OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION).
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR THE CHES. BAY, LOWER JAMES
RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND EARLY TUESDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH, KEEPING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT
AND MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. SW WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ~10 KT WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE, SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
LIKELY REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT (WHICH WILL BE
SOMEWHAT STRONGER). REMAINING OUT OF THE SW, LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE CHES.
BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND. LOCAL WIND PROBS SHOWS
>80% CHC OF 18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM ~06Z TO ~15Z TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.
WAVES ARE CURRENTLY ~1 FT AND SEAS ARE 2-3 FT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 3-4 FT IN THE CHES. BAY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE SEAS PEAKING TUESDAY EVENING AT 4-5
FT (3-4 FT NEARSHORE). SEAS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT WILL FALL BACK TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS, WITH LOW RIP RISK OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. LOW RIP CURRENT RISK
IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BEACHES TOMORROW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/NB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...AJZ/HET
MARINE...KMC/LKB
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