381
FXUS61 KAKQ 300758
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
358 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BRING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY, AND SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS SOMEWHAT LOWER
HUMIDITY TO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 340 AM EDT MONDAY...
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, PRIMARILY OVER THE N/NW ZONES WHERE AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SE US COAST, CENTERED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
THE CARIBBEAN, WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN THE SAME GENERAL
REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ENE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
SOUTHERN VA, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS THE MD EASTERN SHORE ARE SLOWLY
MOVING OFF TO THE NE. WARM AND HUMID ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE LOW-MID 70S, RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FAR NW.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL VA THROUGH 7 AM,
BUT NOTHING DENSE OR WIDESPREAD IS ANTICIPATED.
SFC LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO N OF
LAKE SUPERIOR, WILL TRACK E TODAY, LIFTING A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT IS ALREADY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTH
INTO THE NE CONUS THIS AFTN. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO KEEP SW WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TODAY NEAR THE COAST TO
MINIMIZE ANY SEABREEZE INFLUENCES, AND THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE
HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE N/NW ZONES WHERE
SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER, WITH GENERALLY ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE GOOD INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING, BUT WITH FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR FOR MOST (15-20KT).
SPC HAS OUR FAR N/NW ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR LOCALIZED
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
~25KT IN THE FAR NORTH LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING). IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND HUMID TODAY, WITH FORECAST HIGHS ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT WITHIN 1 STD DEV (GENERALLY 90-95F WITH
THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC). DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S DURING PEAK HEATING SHOULD YIELD HEAT
INDICES OF 98-104F, WITH A FEW POCKETS OF ~105F POSSIBLE IN THE
SE. CONVECTION WANES OVERNIGHT WITH ANOTHER WARM HUMID NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOCALLY UPPER 70S/AROUND 80F IN THE
URBAN AREAS AND NEAR THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 350 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WITH A MARGINAL SVR RISK AND A
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT ERO RISK FOR DAY 2 (TUE AM THROUGH EARLY
WED AM).
- FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SE, LIKELY STALLING NEAR VA/NC
BORDER, BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO SE VA AND NE NC
WEDNESDAY (MARGINAL ERO FOR WED IN SE ZONES).
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM THE NW TUESDAY.
PW VALUES INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BETTER FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY AFTN
AND EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS COULD RESULT
IN IMPROVED STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR TUESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT RISK JUST OFF TO
OUR NORTH). ADDITIONALLY, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH A
MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS, AND WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA AND A MARGINAL INTO SE VA. THERE IS STILL
SOME QUESTION AS TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (THE NAM IS SHOWING
SOMEWHAT BETTER VALUES IN THE 6-6.5C RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
THE GFS REMAINS WEAKER). OVERALL, THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH HAIL STILL A FAIRLY MINIMAL CONCERN. HOT AND
HUMID TUESDAY, BUT NOT UNUSUAL FOR THE START OF JULY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S SE
(WHERE POPS STAY FAIRLY LOW THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY), TO AROUND
90F IN THE PIEDMONT. PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S W TO
NEAR 105F SE.
30/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW
TO PUSH TO THE SE WEDNESDAY, KEEPING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO
SE VA AND NE NC THROUGH WED AFTN. HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE 80S WEDNESDAY WITH POPS RANGING FROM 15-30% N TO 60-70% S
WITH THE FRONT LINGERING OVER THE LOCALLY AREA. THE SVR THREAT
WILL BE DIMINISHED, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SE THROUGH THE AFTN. DRYING OUT WED EVENING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
- LOWER DEW POINTS WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, 29/12Z EPS/GEFS PUSH THE FRONT S OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY, WITH PW VALUES DROPPING BELOW NORMAL BY
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. GIVEN THIS, THE SECONDARY FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH, AND POPS ARE LESS THAN 15% AT THIS TIME. HIGHS
RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY, BUT DEWPOINTS DROP A FEW
DEGREES. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90F BEHIND THE
SECONDARY FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
SO SOME RELATIVE RELIEF (AT LEAST FOR EARLY JULY STANDARDS)
ARRIVES LATER THIS WEEK. UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC BY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS
TREND BACK TOWARD THE 90S, BUT DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOWER TO
RECOVER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. LOWS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S LATER THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...
MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AT SBY LATER TONIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE
MONDAY. PRIMARILY VFR MONDAY WITH A 20-30% CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
TOWARD THE COAST AND A 30-50% CHC FARTHER INLAND. THE WIND WILL
MAINLY BE SW 5-10KT MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY SHIFT TO ENE AT ORF
WITH THE SEA-BREEZE DURING THE AFTN.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN INCREASED CHC OF MAINLY
AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. VFR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW (OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION).
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR THE CHES. BAY, LOWER JAMES
RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND EARLY TUESDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH, KEEPING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR TONIGHT
AND MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. SW WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ~10 KT WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE, SW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
LIKELY REMAINING BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT (WHICH WILL BE
SOMEWHAT STRONGER). REMAINING OUT OF THE SW, LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SCA HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE CHES.
BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND. LOCAL WIND PROBS SHOWS
>80% CHC OF 18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS FROM ~06Z TO ~15Z TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.
WAVES ARE CURRENTLY ~1 FT AND SEAS ARE 2-3 FT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 3-4 FT IN THE CHES. BAY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE SEAS PEAKING TUESDAY EVENING AT 4-5
FT (3-4 FT NEARSHORE). SEAS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT WILL FALL BACK TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS, WITH LOW RIP RISK OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. LOW RIP CURRENT RISK
IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BEACHES TOMORROW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...HET/LKB
MARINE...KMC/LKB
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