224
FXUS61 KAKQ 041736
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
136 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH LOWER HUMIDITY EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST DRIFTS NORTH SUNDAY,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SEASONABLE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1200 PM EDT FRIDAY...
- DRY AND PLEASANT FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED LATE THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
HAVE ADJUSTED DEW POINT GRIDS DOWN CONSIDERABLY TO BETTER MATCH
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WARM AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING,
RESULTING IN A SPLENDID HOLIDAY FORECAST. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S TO THE LOW 90S. SATELLITE SHOWS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME SMOKE NOTED ALOFT
FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT.
CONTINUED DRY AND PLEASANT TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO RIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES AT THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY
- MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD.
PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SAT WHILE A RIDGE
SLIDES OVERHEAD ALOFT. SAT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH HIGHS UPPER 80S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE, BUT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE SE THROUGH
THE DAY. SAT NIGHT WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 60S INLAND AND LOW 70S
RIGHT AT THE COAST. SUN WILL BE WHERE THE PATTERN TAKES A TURN BACK
TO HUMIDITY AND INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
OFF THE COAST OF GA/THE CAROLINAS SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG OF A LOW
IT WILL BE AND WHERE IT GOES FROM THERE. WILL NOTE THAT THE NHC DOES
HAVE A 50% CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION IN 48 HOURS ON IT. WHAT IS
CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODELS, THOUGH, IS THAT THE ONLY REAL IMPACT
FROM THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM HERE LOCALLY IS INCREASED HUMIDITY AND
RAIN CHANCES WITH THE SE FLOW N OF THE LOW. ON SUNDAY, STORM CHANCES
ARE GENERALLY CONFINED S OF I-64 (30-60%, HIGHEST S), BUT COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO THE N. SHOWERS/STORMS MAY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MON
WITH CHC POPS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING, THEN SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
SE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 80S, SO WE AT
LEAST WON'T BE DEALING WITH HIGH HEAT INDICES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BECOMING INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID BY NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
COASTAL LOW FINALLY PUSHES NE. ALSO, A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES LOOKS TO STALL OUT NEAR OR OVER THE FA. THE RESULT WILL BE
WILL BE WEATHER PRETTY TYPICAL FOR JULY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
AND DIURNAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. HUMIDITY CONTINUES AS WELL, BUT HEAT INDICES
SHOULD STAY AT OR UNDER 103F.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 135 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY, EXCEPT SOME HIGHER CLOUDS OVER FAR SRN VA
AND NE NC, AND SOME FEW-SCT CU NEAR SBY. N WINDS INLAND WITH
E-NE WINDS NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE. SPEEDS
ARE GENERALLY 5-10 KT. LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT, INCREASING
AGAIN OUT OF THE E-NE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
LOW PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG. MAINLY SKC AGAIN
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY, MAINLY SOUTH, AND ALL AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MVFR
CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY S) BY SUNDAY- MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA/BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COULD BRING ELEVATED SOUTHEAST
WINDS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. WINDS ARE STILL SW AT 5-10 KT WITH
2 FT SEAS/1-2 FT WAVES. HOWEVER, EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NNE AT 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT FOLLOWING THE FROPA. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW
GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT IN THE LOWER BAY AND SE VA COASTAL WATERS. THE
HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 5 AM-NOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT BY THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE
TO ~3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2-3 FT WAVES POSSIBLE ON THE BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES N OF THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY WITH E-
NE WINDS OF 5-10 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT, BECOMING E-ESE AND INCREASING
TO 10-15 KT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS AVERAGE ~2 FT. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES BY THE VERY END OF THE WEEKEND AS A SUBTROPICAL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OFF THE SC/GA COAST BEFORE POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. NHC STILL HAS A MEDIUM
(60%) PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT SOME
POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SSE WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING NEAR 15 KT
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME S AND DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE AS THE LOW SLOWLY EXITS. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN
SPECIFICS, A SHORT PERIOD OF SCAS IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN-MON (ALTHOUGH
PREVAILING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST PART OF THAT
TIME). VARIABLE MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...ERI
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