122
FXUS61 KAKQ 051039
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
639 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH LOWER HUMIDITY EXPECTED. LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIKELY MOVES INLAND SUNDAY,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS, PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
AND SEASONABLE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...
- DRY AND PLEASANT AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
PLEASANT WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR TODAY WITH CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND RIDGES IN
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. TO THE SOUTH, TD3 IS POSITIONED OFF THE SC/GA
COAST. ALOFT, A RIDGE IS SLIDING IN OVERHEAD WITH ITS AXIS JUST WEST
OF APPALACHIA. TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE ACTUALLY KIND OF CHILLY FOR
EARLY JULY. SEVERAL OBS (MOSTLY RURAL LOCATIONS) ARE SHOWING TEMPS
IN THE LOW 60S. LOWS THIS MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR
MOST. NE NC AND EXTREME SE VA WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH THE CIRRUS
CLOUDS HELPING TO HOLD IN SOME OF THE HEAT.
THE DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A STRAY
SHOWER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER HUMIDITY
ALSO CONTINUES WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S. HIGHS TODAY IN THE
UPPER 80S (LOW-MID 80S AT THE BEACH). CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM THE
S THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS TD3 DRIFTS N (BUT STILL WELL SOUTH
OF THE FA) AND TROPICAL MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM INTO THE AREA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD.
HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES BACK IN WITH THE SE FLOW N OF TD3. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LAND IN SC BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT,
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND PROGRESSES N
UP THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD START AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING,
PARTICULARLY IN THE SE. SHOWERS/STORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE S OF I-64. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE STORMS, BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. NE NC IS IN A
MARGINAL ERO. STORMS BECOME ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. MONDAY HAS
THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MORE NUMEROUS IMPACTS FROM HEAVY RAIN. WITH
PWATS RISING TO >2.00" OVER PRETTY MUCH THE WHOLE AREA AND AS HIGH
AS 2.5" IN THE SE, WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. NE NC IS
IN A MARGINAL ERO AGAIN MONDAY, AS WELL AS HAMPTON ROADS. PRECIP
LOOKS TO MOSTLY COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MON,
BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER BY THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGHS ON BOTH
SUN AND MON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE IN
THE LOW-MID 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BECOMING HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES.
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED DUE TO THE LEFTOVERS OF
LOW PRESSURE HANGING AROUND THE AREA AND A POTENTIAL FRONT MOVING
IN. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY TUES-WED,
POTENTIALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THURS-FRI AS THE FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES AND THE FRONT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW 90S TUES AND WED, THEN PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER
TO END THE WEEK. THE RETURN OF TEMPS IN THE 90S AND THE HUMIDITY
ALSO MEANS A RETURN TO HEAT INDICES OF 100-103.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 640 AM EDT SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 12Z BRINGING VFR
AND DRY CONDITIONS. MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE TERMINALS, BUT THERE IS
SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS PERSISTING ACROSS THE FAR SE AND MID-
LEVEL SCT CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM S TO N AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE S. CAROLINA COAST (TD 3) DRIFTS N. CALM
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING GIVE WAY TO 5-10KT E WINDS LATER THIS
MORNING.
OUTLOOK: A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY, MAINLY
SOUTH, AND DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF TD 3.
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL AREAS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY S) BY SUNDAY-
MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA/BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
- THE VAST MAJORITY OF MARINE IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3
WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
- MAINLY SUB-SCA NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH E-SE WINDS
OF 5-10 KT AND 2-3 FT SEAS/1-2 FT WAVES. THERE REMAINS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH E-SE
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON (AND VEER TO THE SE
TONIGHT). SEAS CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 2-3 FT.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY THE VERY END OF THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 3 IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SC SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT TURNS NE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POTENTIALLY
CROSSING THE WATERS ON MONDAY. PREVAILING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY, BUT THERE IS A CHC OF
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCAS (MAINLY ON THE BAY) FROM SUN AFTN-LATE
SUN EVENING AS SE WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FOR A SHORT TIME
AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM. LOCAL WIND PROBS SHOW A 20-50% CHC OF 18+ KT
WINDS ON THE BAY FOR A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD SUN AFTN/EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL SCAS. WINDS DIMINISH
TO 10-15 KT SUN NIGHT AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE ON MONDAY. SEAS BUILD
TO 3-4 FT BY SUN NIGHT/MONDAY, 2-3 FT WAVES ON THE BAY. REGARDLESS,
IT STILL APPEARS AS IF THE VAST MAJORITY OF WIND (AND IMPACTS) FROM
TD3 SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME S
AND DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY EXITS. VARIABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...ERI
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