054
FXUS61 KAKQ 051436
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1036 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH LOWER HUMIDITY EXPECTED. TROPICAL
STORM CHANTAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIKELY MOVES INLAND
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS, PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE
STORM, TYPICAL VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1035 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY AND PLEASANT AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER COASTAL NE NC.
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD 1022+MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA, RIDGING BACK
SW INTO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. TO THE SOUTH, NOW-TROPICAL STORM
CHANTAL IS POSITIONED OFF THE SC/GA COAST. ALOFT, HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
TEMPERATURES AT 14Z ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THERE ARE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC OUTER BANKS ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM TS CHANTAL. GIVEN RATHER LIMITED
KINEMATICS, LITTLE MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF US-158 IN
NC. OTHERWISE, A RATHER PLEASANT AFTERNOON AHEAD WEATHERWISE
WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOWER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY
LEVELS FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S (LOW-MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES). CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM THE S THROUGH THIS
EVENING, AS CHANTAL DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH, BUT STILL WELL SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA. REMAINING MAINLY DRY THIS EVENING, THOUGH AS
MORE EFFICIENT TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM NNE
INTO THE AREA AND PWS STREAM BACK AOA 2", EXPECT MORE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER WITH SHOWER CHANCES TO RETURN TO NE NC LATE TONIGHT.
EARLY MORNING LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1035 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL LIFTS NORTHWARD.
HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES BACK IN WITH THE SE FLOW AHEAD OF
CHANTAL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LAND IN SC BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT, THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND PROGRESSES N UP THE COAST THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY
IN THE SE. SHOWERS/STORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE S OF I-64. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE STORMS, BUT WITH PWATS RISING TO 2 TO 2.5" OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA (HIGHEST SE), LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN. NE NC IS IN A MARGINAL ERO FOR TOMORROW.
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD DIMINISH AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALL OVER AGAIN ON MONDAY. THE ERO REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR NE NC MONDAY, AND SPREADS INTO HAMPTON ROADS AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTS FARTHER NNE. PRECIP LOOKS TO MOSTLY
COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MON, BUT A FEW
SHOWERS COULD LINGER BY THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGHS ON BOTH SUN
AND MON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE IN
THE LOW- MID 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BECOMING HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES.
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED DUE TO THE LEFTOVERS OF
LOW PRESSURE HANGING AROUND THE AREA AND A POTENTIAL FRONT MOVING
IN. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH CHANCES EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY TUES-WED,
POTENTIALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THURS-FRI AS THE FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES AND THE FRONT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOW 90S TUES AND WED, THEN PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER
TO END THE WEEK. THE RETURN OF TEMPS IN THE 90S AND THE HUMIDITY
ALSO MEANS A RETURN TO HEAT INDICES OF 100-103.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 640 AM EDT SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 12Z BRINGING VFR
AND DRY CONDITIONS. MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE TERMINALS, BUT THERE IS
SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS PERSISTING ACROSS THE FAR SE AND MID-
LEVEL SCT CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM S TO N AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE S. CAROLINA COAST (TD 3) DRIFTS N. CALM
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING GIVE WAY TO 5-10KT E WINDS LATER THIS
MORNING.
OUTLOOK: A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY, MAINLY
SOUTH, AND DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF TD 3.
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL AREAS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY S) BY SUNDAY-
MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA/BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
- THE VAST MAJORITY OF MARINE IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3
WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
- MAINLY SUB-SCA NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH E-SE WINDS
OF 5-10 KT AND 2-3 FT SEAS/1-2 FT WAVES. THERE REMAINS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH E-SE
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON (AND VEER TO THE SE
TONIGHT). SEAS CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 2-3 FT.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY THE VERY END OF THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 3 IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SC SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT TURNS NE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POTENTIALLY
CROSSING THE WATERS ON MONDAY. PREVAILING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY, BUT THERE IS A CHC OF
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCAS (MAINLY ON THE BAY) FROM SUN AFTN-LATE
SUN EVENING AS SE WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FOR A SHORT TIME
AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM. LOCAL WIND PROBS SHOW A 20-50% CHC OF 18+ KT
WINDS ON THE BAY FOR A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD SUN AFTN/EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL SCAS. WINDS DIMINISH
TO 10-15 KT SUN NIGHT AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE ON MONDAY. SEAS BUILD
TO 3-4 FT BY SUN NIGHT/MONDAY, 2-3 FT WAVES ON THE BAY. REGARDLESS,
IT STILL APPEARS AS IF THE VAST MAJORITY OF WIND (AND IMPACTS) FROM
TD3 SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME S
AND DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY EXITS. VARIABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...AC/MAM
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...ERI
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