054  
FXUS61 KAKQ 051436  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
1036 AM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH LOWER HUMIDITY EXPECTED. TROPICAL  
STORM CHANTAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIKELY MOVES INLAND  
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW  
STORMS, PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. BEHIND THE  
STORM, TYPICAL VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR  
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 1035 AM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- DRY AND PLEASANT AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.  
 
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER COASTAL NE NC.  
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.  
 
LATE MORNING ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD 1022+MB SFC HIGH  
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA, RIDGING BACK  
SW INTO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. TO THE SOUTH, NOW-TROPICAL STORM  
CHANTAL IS POSITIONED OFF THE SC/GA COAST. ALOFT, HEIGHTS  
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES  
TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  
 
TEMPERATURES AT 14Z ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER  
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THERE ARE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS  
NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN NC OUTER BANKS ASSOCIATED WITH  
CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM TS CHANTAL. GIVEN RATHER LIMITED  
KINEMATICS, LITTLE MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED  
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF US-158 IN  
NC. OTHERWISE, A RATHER PLEASANT AFTERNOON AHEAD WEATHERWISE  
WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOWER THAN NORMAL HUMIDITY  
LEVELS FOR EARLY JULY. HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S (LOW-MID 80S  
AT THE BEACHES). CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM THE S THROUGH THIS  
EVENING, AS CHANTAL DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH, BUT STILL WELL SOUTH  
OF THE LOCAL AREA. REMAINING MAINLY DRY THIS EVENING, THOUGH AS  
MORE EFFICIENT TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM NNE  
INTO THE AREA AND PWS STREAM BACK AOA 2", EXPECT MORE CONSIDERABLE  
CLOUD COVER WITH SHOWER CHANCES TO RETURN TO NE NC LATE TONIGHT.  
EARLY MORNING LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 1035 AM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS  
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL LIFTS NORTHWARD.  
 
HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS  
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES BACK IN WITH THE SE FLOW AHEAD OF  
CHANTAL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LAND IN SC BY  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT, THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO A BROAD  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND PROGRESSES N UP THE COAST THROUGH  
MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY  
IN THE SE. SHOWERS/STORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE  
AFTERNOON, BUT HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE S OF I-64. NOT EXPECTING  
SEVERE STORMS, BUT WITH PWATS RISING TO 2 TO 2.5" OVER MUCH OF  
THE AREA (HIGHEST SE), LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE THE MAIN  
CONCERN. NE NC IS IN A MARGINAL ERO FOR TOMORROW.  
 
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD DIMINISH AREAL COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH POPS TO  
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALL OVER AGAIN ON MONDAY. THE ERO REMAINS  
IN EFFECT FOR NE NC MONDAY, AND SPREADS INTO HAMPTON ROADS AS  
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTS FARTHER NNE. PRECIP LOOKS TO MOSTLY  
COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MON, BUT A FEW  
SHOWERS COULD LINGER BY THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGHS ON BOTH SUN  
AND MON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE IN  
THE LOW- MID 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- BECOMING HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK  
WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES.  
 
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOK RATHER UNSETTLED DUE TO THE LEFTOVERS OF  
LOW PRESSURE HANGING AROUND THE AREA AND A POTENTIAL FRONT MOVING  
IN. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH CHANCES EACH  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY TUES-WED,  
POTENTIALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THURS-FRI AS THE FLOW  
ALOFT INCREASES AND THE FRONT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC. HIGHS WILL  
BE IN THE LOW 90S TUES AND WED, THEN PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER  
TO END THE WEEK. THE RETURN OF TEMPS IN THE 90S AND THE HUMIDITY  
ALSO MEANS A RETURN TO HEAT INDICES OF 100-103.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 640 AM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 12Z BRINGING VFR  
AND DRY CONDITIONS. MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE TERMINALS, BUT THERE IS  
SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS PERSISTING ACROSS THE FAR SE AND MID-  
LEVEL SCT CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. MOSTLY CLEAR  
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THIS EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT, CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM S TO N AS LOW  
PRESSURE OFF THE S. CAROLINA COAST (TD 3) DRIFTS N. CALM  
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING GIVE WAY TO 5-10KT E WINDS LATER THIS  
MORNING.  
 
OUTLOOK: A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY, MAINLY  
SOUTH, AND DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF TD 3.  
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL AREAS MONDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY S) BY SUNDAY-  
MONDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SUB-SCA/BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.  
 
- THE VAST MAJORITY OF MARINE IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3  
WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF  
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
- MAINLY SUB-SCA NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.  
 
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH E-SE WINDS  
OF 5-10 KT AND 2-3 FT SEAS/1-2 FT WAVES. THERE REMAINS HIGH  
CONFIDENCE IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH E-SE  
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON (AND VEER TO THE SE  
TONIGHT). SEAS CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 2-3 FT.  
 
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY THE VERY END OF THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL  
DEPRESSION 3 IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SC SUNDAY MORNING  
BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT TURNS NE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POTENTIALLY  
CROSSING THE WATERS ON MONDAY. PREVAILING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY, BUT THERE IS A CHC OF  
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCAS (MAINLY ON THE BAY) FROM SUN AFTN-LATE  
SUN EVENING AS SE WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FOR A SHORT TIME  
AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM. LOCAL WIND PROBS SHOW A 20-50% CHC OF 18+ KT  
WINDS ON THE BAY FOR A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD SUN AFTN/EVENING. WILL  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL SCAS. WINDS DIMINISH  
TO 10-15 KT SUN NIGHT AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE ON MONDAY. SEAS BUILD  
TO 3-4 FT BY SUN NIGHT/MONDAY, 2-3 FT WAVES ON THE BAY. REGARDLESS,  
IT STILL APPEARS AS IF THE VAST MAJORITY OF WIND (AND IMPACTS) FROM  
TD3 SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME S  
AND DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY EXITS. VARIABLE  
MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH  
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.  
 
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK ON  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...RHR  
NEAR TERM...AC/MAM  
SHORT TERM...AC  
LONG TERM...AC  
AVIATION...AC  
MARINE...ERI  
 
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