399  
FXUS61 KAKQ 051847  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
247 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH LOWER HUMIDITY EXPECTED.  
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIKELY MOVES  
INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A  
FEW EMBEDDED STORMS, PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE  
AREA. BEHIND THE STORM, VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY HIT OR  
MISS TYPE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE  
EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER COASTAL NE NC.  
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.  
 
- INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR E NC  
OVERNIGHT. LOWS 65-75 (WARMEST FAR SE COAST).  
 
LATEST ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD 1022+MB SFC HIGH  
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA, RIDGING BACK SW  
INTO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. TO THE SOUTH, NOW-TROPICAL STORM  
CHANTAL IS POSITIONED OFF THE SC/GA COAST. ALOFT, HEIGHTS  
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES  
TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. LIGHT E-SE  
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE PW VALUES FROM <1" TO  
1.5 TO 2" BY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER  
80S UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THERE ARE A FEW  
SCATTERED SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS E NC INTO THE NORTHERN NC OUTER  
BANKS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM TS CHANTAL. GIVEN  
RATHER LIMITED KINEMATICS, LITTLE MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED TO  
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING  
MAINLY SOUTH OF US-158 IN NC. OTHERWISE, A RATHER PLEASANT MID  
TO LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM THE S THROUGH  
THIS EVENING, AS CHANTAL DRIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD THE SC COAST.  
REMAINING MAINLY DRY THIS EVENING, THOUGH AS MORE EFFICIENT  
TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM NNE INTO THE AREA  
AND PWS STREAM BACK AOA 1.5"-2", EXPECT MORE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD  
COVER WITH SHOWER CHANCES TO RETURN TO NE NC LATE TONIGHT.  
EARLY MORNING LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS  
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL LIFTS NORTHWARD.  
 
- MAIN THREATS FROM CHANTAL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,  
ESPECIALLY HAMPTON ROADS AND NORTHEAST NC AND INCREASED RISK  
FOR RIP CURRENTS.  
 
HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY, AS  
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES BACK IN WITH THE SE FLOW AHEAD OF  
CHANTAL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LAND IN SC BY  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT, THE SYSTEM QUICKLY WEAKENS  
TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND PROGRESSES N UP THE COAST  
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS E NC SUNDAY MORNING,  
WITH SHOWERS/STORMS TO THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE  
AFTERNOON, BUT CONCENTRATED MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.  
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS, BUT WITH PWATS  
RISING TO 2 TO 2.5" OVER MUCH OF THE AREA (HIGHEST SE), ANY  
SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALL BUT THE  
EASTERN SHORE ARE NOW IN AN ERO FOR TOMORROW (SUNDAY).  
 
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD DIMINISH AREAL COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN, AT LEAST INITIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT.  
HOWEVER, AS THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION CONTINUES NORTH AND CONTINUES  
TO PULL IN TROPICAL MOISTURE, POPS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALL  
OVER AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS  
THE MAIN SENSIBLE WX THREAT. THERE REMAINS A STRONG MODEL  
SIGNAL FOR IVT OF 600-800+ KG/M/S LIFTING ACROSS THE COASTAL  
PLAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING (95-98% PERCENTILE OF  
CLIMO). GIVEN RECENT RAINS OF EARLIER THIS WEEK, THIS COULD  
EASILY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF  
FLASH FLOODING, AND COMMUNITIES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RAINFALL FORECAST CLOSELY IN THE COMING  
DAY OR SO. THE ERO IS NOW IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON  
MONDAY. PRECIP LOOKS TO MOSTLY COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF  
DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT, BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER BY  
THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGHS ON BOTH SUN AND MON WILL BE IN THE  
UPPER 80S. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOW- MID 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- BECOMING HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK  
WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES.  
 
AS THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL DEPART THE REGION, THE REST OF THE  
WEEK LOOKS SEASONABLY WARM AND RATHER HUMID, WHILE REMAINING  
UNSETTLED, DUE TO WEAK TROUGHINESS LINGERING ACROSS THE MID-  
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE  
IN THE WEEK. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH  
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY  
TUES- WED, POTENTIALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THURS-  
FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.  
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S TUES AND WED, THEN PERHAPS A  
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER TO END THE WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND  
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE RETURN OF TEMPS IN THE 90S AND THE  
HUMIDITY ALSO MEANS A RETURN TO HEAT INDICES RIGHT AROUND 100  
DEGREES. HAVE UNDERCUT HEAT INDICES A BIT ONCE AGAIN, WITH THE  
IDEA THAT BL REMAINS MIXED ENOUGH TUE-WED TO BREAK WIDESPREAD  
UPPER 70S TD VALUES CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE NBM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
OUTSIDE OF SOME SHOWERS AROUND THE KECG TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON  
INTO EARLY EVENING, VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL  
PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. STRATOCUMULUS AT KORF AND  
KECG LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS  
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. E-SE WINDS 5-10KT BECOME  
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE LATE  
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW RESULTS IN CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY INCREASING  
FROM S TO N AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL SLOWLY ASCENDS THE  
SOUTHEAST COAST. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ECG BY SUNRISE  
SUNDAY MORNING, AND HAVE APPENDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW.  
REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE SHOWER CHANCES RAMP UP BY LATER  
SUNDAY MORNING AT ORF/PHF AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AT RIC/SBY.  
 
OUTLOOK: LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN HEAVIER  
SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR ALL AREAS ON MONDAY,  
WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE. VERY WARM, HUMID  
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LATE DAY  
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SOME EARLY  
MORNING GROUND FOG/STRATUS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SUB-SCA/BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.  
 
- THE VAST MAJORITY OF MARINE IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3  
WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF  
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
- MAINLY SUB-SCA NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.  
 
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH E-SE WINDS  
OF 5-10 KT AND 2-3 FT SEAS/1-2 FT WAVES. THERE REMAINS HIGH  
CONFIDENCE IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH E-SE  
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON (AND VEER TO THE SE  
TONIGHT). SEAS CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 2-3 FT.  
 
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY THE VERY END OF THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL  
DEPRESSION 3 IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SC SUNDAY MORNING  
BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT TURNS NE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POTENTIALLY  
CROSSING THE WATERS ON MONDAY. PREVAILING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY, BUT THERE IS A CHC OF  
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCAS (MAINLY ON THE BAY) FROM SUN AFTN-LATE  
SUN EVENING AS SE WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FOR A SHORT TIME  
AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM. LOCAL WIND PROBS SHOW A 20-50% CHC OF 18+ KT  
WINDS ON THE BAY FOR A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD SUN AFTN/EVENING. WILL  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL SCAS. WINDS DIMINISH  
TO 10-15 KT SUN NIGHT AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE ON MONDAY. SEAS BUILD  
TO 3-4 FT BY SUN NIGHT/MONDAY, 2-3 FT WAVES ON THE BAY. REGARDLESS,  
IT STILL APPEARS AS IF THE VAST MAJORITY OF WIND (AND IMPACTS) FROM  
TD3 SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME S  
AND DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY EXITS. VARIABLE  
MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH  
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.  
 
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK ON  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...RHR  
NEAR TERM...MAM  
SHORT TERM...AC/MAM  
LONG TERM...AC/MAM  
AVIATION...MAM  
MARINE...ERI  
 
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