399
FXUS61 KAKQ 051847
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
247 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH LOWER HUMIDITY EXPECTED.
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIKELY MOVES
INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A
FEW EMBEDDED STORMS, PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. BEHIND THE STORM, VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY HIT OR
MISS TYPE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER COASTAL NE NC.
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.
- INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR E NC
OVERNIGHT. LOWS 65-75 (WARMEST FAR SE COAST).
LATEST ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD 1022+MB SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA, RIDGING BACK SW
INTO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. TO THE SOUTH, NOW-TROPICAL STORM
CHANTAL IS POSITIONED OFF THE SC/GA COAST. ALOFT, HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. LIGHT E-SE
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE PW VALUES FROM <1" TO
1.5 TO 2" BY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THERE ARE A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS E NC INTO THE NORTHERN NC OUTER
BANKS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM TS CHANTAL. GIVEN
RATHER LIMITED KINEMATICS, LITTLE MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
MAINLY SOUTH OF US-158 IN NC. OTHERWISE, A RATHER PLEASANT MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM THE S THROUGH
THIS EVENING, AS CHANTAL DRIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD THE SC COAST.
REMAINING MAINLY DRY THIS EVENING, THOUGH AS MORE EFFICIENT
TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM NNE INTO THE AREA
AND PWS STREAM BACK AOA 1.5"-2", EXPECT MORE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER WITH SHOWER CHANCES TO RETURN TO NE NC LATE TONIGHT.
EARLY MORNING LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL LIFTS NORTHWARD.
- MAIN THREATS FROM CHANTAL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
ESPECIALLY HAMPTON ROADS AND NORTHEAST NC AND INCREASED RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS.
HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY, AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES BACK IN WITH THE SE FLOW AHEAD OF
CHANTAL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LAND IN SC BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT, THE SYSTEM QUICKLY WEAKENS
TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND PROGRESSES N UP THE COAST
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS E NC SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH SHOWERS/STORMS TO THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT CONCENTRATED MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS, BUT WITH PWATS
RISING TO 2 TO 2.5" OVER MUCH OF THE AREA (HIGHEST SE), ANY
SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALL BUT THE
EASTERN SHORE ARE NOW IN AN ERO FOR TOMORROW (SUNDAY).
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD DIMINISH AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN, AT LEAST INITIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, AS THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION CONTINUES NORTH AND CONTINUES
TO PULL IN TROPICAL MOISTURE, POPS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALL
OVER AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS
THE MAIN SENSIBLE WX THREAT. THERE REMAINS A STRONG MODEL
SIGNAL FOR IVT OF 600-800+ KG/M/S LIFTING ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING (95-98% PERCENTILE OF
CLIMO). GIVEN RECENT RAINS OF EARLIER THIS WEEK, THIS COULD
EASILY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING, AND COMMUNITIES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RAINFALL FORECAST CLOSELY IN THE COMING
DAY OR SO. THE ERO IS NOW IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON
MONDAY. PRECIP LOOKS TO MOSTLY COME TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT, BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER BY
THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGHS ON BOTH SUN AND MON WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE LOW- MID 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BECOMING HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES.
AS THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL DEPART THE REGION, THE REST OF THE
WEEK LOOKS SEASONABLY WARM AND RATHER HUMID, WHILE REMAINING
UNSETTLED, DUE TO WEAK TROUGHINESS LINGERING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
TUES- WED, POTENTIALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THURS-
FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S TUES AND WED, THEN PERHAPS A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER TO END THE WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE RETURN OF TEMPS IN THE 90S AND THE
HUMIDITY ALSO MEANS A RETURN TO HEAT INDICES RIGHT AROUND 100
DEGREES. HAVE UNDERCUT HEAT INDICES A BIT ONCE AGAIN, WITH THE
IDEA THAT BL REMAINS MIXED ENOUGH TUE-WED TO BREAK WIDESPREAD
UPPER 70S TD VALUES CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE NBM.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...
OUTSIDE OF SOME SHOWERS AROUND THE KECG TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING, VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. STRATOCUMULUS AT KORF AND
KECG LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. E-SE WINDS 5-10KT BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW RESULTS IN CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY INCREASING
FROM S TO N AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL SLOWLY ASCENDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ECG BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING, AND HAVE APPENDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW.
REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE SHOWER CHANCES RAMP UP BY LATER
SUNDAY MORNING AT ORF/PHF AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AT RIC/SBY.
OUTLOOK: LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR ALL AREAS ON MONDAY,
WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE. VERY WARM, HUMID
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LATE DAY
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SOME EARLY
MORNING GROUND FOG/STRATUS.
MARINE
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA/BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
- THE VAST MAJORITY OF MARINE IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3
WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
- MAINLY SUB-SCA NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH E-SE WINDS
OF 5-10 KT AND 2-3 FT SEAS/1-2 FT WAVES. THERE REMAINS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH E-SE
WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON (AND VEER TO THE SE
TONIGHT). SEAS CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 2-3 FT.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY THE VERY END OF THE WEEKEND AS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 3 IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SC SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT TURNS NE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POTENTIALLY
CROSSING THE WATERS ON MONDAY. PREVAILING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY, BUT THERE IS A CHC OF
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCAS (MAINLY ON THE BAY) FROM SUN AFTN-LATE
SUN EVENING AS SE WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FOR A SHORT TIME
AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM. LOCAL WIND PROBS SHOW A 20-50% CHC OF 18+ KT
WINDS ON THE BAY FOR A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD SUN AFTN/EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL SCAS. WINDS DIMINISH
TO 10-15 KT SUN NIGHT AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE ON MONDAY. SEAS BUILD
TO 3-4 FT BY SUN NIGHT/MONDAY, 2-3 FT WAVES ON THE BAY. REGARDLESS,
IT STILL APPEARS AS IF THE VAST MAJORITY OF WIND (AND IMPACTS) FROM
TD3 SHOULD STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME S
AND DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY EXITS. VARIABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AC/MAM
LONG TERM...AC/MAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...ERI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page