736  
FXUS61 KAKQ 060010  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
810 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH LOWER HUMIDITY EXPECTED.  
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIKELY MOVES  
INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A  
FEW EMBEDDED STORMS, PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE  
AREA. BEHIND THE STORM, VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY HIT OR  
MISS TYPE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE  
EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 740 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NE NC.  
 
- INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH LOWS 63-75 (WARMEST FAR SE  
COAST).  
 
LATEST ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD 1023MB SFC HIGH  
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA, RIDGING BACK SW  
INTO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. TO THE SOUTH, TROPICAL STORM  
CHANTAL IS POSITIONED OFF THE SC/GA COAST. ALOFT, HEIGHTS  
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES  
TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. LIGHT E-SE  
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE PW VALUES FROM <1" TO  
1.5 TO 2" BY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
TEMPERATURES AS OF 730 PM RANGED FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S  
UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY (GREATER CLOUD COVER ACROSS  
NE NC). THERE ARE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS NE NC  
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM TS CHANTAL. CLOUD COVER  
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING, AS TS  
CHANTAL DRIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD THE SC COAST. REMAINING MAINLY DRY  
THIS EVENING, THOUGH AS MORE EFFICIENT TRANSPORT TROPICAL  
MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM NNE INTO THE AREA AND PWS STREAM BACK  
AOA 1.5"-2", EXPECT MORE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITH SHOWER  
CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS NE NC TONIGHT INTO THE DAY SUN. EARLY  
MORNING LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS  
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL LIFTS NORTHWARD.  
 
- MAIN THREATS FROM CHANTAL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,  
ESPECIALLY HAMPTON ROADS AND NORTHEAST NC AND INCREASED RISK  
FOR RIP CURRENTS.  
 
HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY, AS  
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES BACK IN WITH THE SE FLOW AHEAD OF  
CHANTAL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LAND IN SC BY  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT, THE SYSTEM QUICKLY WEAKENS  
TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND PROGRESSES N UP THE COAST  
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS E NC SUNDAY MORNING,  
WITH SHOWERS/STORMS TO THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE  
AFTERNOON, BUT CONCENTRATED MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.  
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS, BUT WITH PWATS  
RISING TO 2 TO 2.5" OVER MUCH OF THE AREA (HIGHEST SE), ANY  
SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALL BUT THE  
EASTERN SHORE ARE NOW IN AN ERO FOR TOMORROW (SUNDAY).  
 
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD DIMINISH AREAL COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN, AT LEAST INITIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT.  
HOWEVER, AS THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION CONTINUES NORTH AND CONTINUES  
TO PULL IN TROPICAL MOISTURE, POPS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALL  
OVER AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS  
THE MAIN SENSIBLE WX THREAT. THERE REMAINS A STRONG MODEL  
SIGNAL FOR IVT OF 600-800+ KG/M/S LIFTING ACROSS THE COASTAL  
PLAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING (95-98% PERCENTILE OF  
CLIMO). GIVEN RECENT RAINS OF EARLIER THIS WEEK, THIS COULD  
EASILY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF  
FLASH FLOODING, AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF I-95 ALONG THE COASTAL  
PLAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RAINFALL FORECAST CLOSELY  
IN THE COMING DAY OR SO. THE MARGINAL ERO IS NOW IN PLACE FOR  
THE ENTIRE AREA ON DAY 3 (MONDAY). PRECIP LOOKS TO MOSTLY COME  
TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT, BUT A  
FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER BY THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGHS ON BOTH  
SUN AND MON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE  
IN THE LOW- MID 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- BECOMING HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK  
WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES.  
 
AS THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL DEPART THE REGION, THE REST OF THE  
WEEK LOOKS SEASONABLY WARM AND RATHER HUMID, WHILE REMAINING  
UNSETTLED, DUE TO WEAK TROUGHINESS LINGERING ACROSS THE MID-  
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE  
IN THE WEEK. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH  
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY  
TUES- WED, POTENTIALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THURS-  
FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.  
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S TUES AND WED, THEN PERHAPS A  
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER TO END THE WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND  
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE RETURN OF TEMPS IN THE 90S AND THE  
HUMIDITY ALSO MEANS A RETURN TO HEAT INDICES RIGHT AROUND 100  
DEGREES. HAVE UNDERCUT HEAT INDICES A BIT ONCE AGAIN, WITH THE  
IDEA THAT BL REMAINS MIXED ENOUGH TUE-WED TO BREAK WIDESPREAD  
UPPER 70S TD VALUES CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE NBM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 735 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NE NC  
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF  
ECG. AS SUCH, HAVE KEPT MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE ECG TAF  
THROUGH 10Z SUN. FEW-SCT MVFR CIGS (~2500 FT) ARE POSSIBLE WITH  
THE SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS  
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AT THE TERMINALS. CLOUD COVER INCREASES  
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN AS TROPICAL STORM  
CHANTAL SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO SC. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS  
POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SUN MORNING INTO EARLY SUN  
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT PHF/ORF/ECG. CIGS LOWER  
TO MAINLY VFR BY SUN AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME  
MVFR CIGS CONTINUING WITH CONVECTION. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUN  
AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT SBY. AS SUCH, HAVE ADDED  
PROB30S FOR NOW TO REFLECT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS/STORMS IMPACTING ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. CIGS LOWER TO  
MVFR/IFR SUN NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE.  
 
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY  
ACROSS ALL AREAS ON MON, WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR  
POSSIBLE. VERY WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TUE THROUGH  
THU, WITH LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE,  
ALONG WITH SOME EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG/STRATUS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 810 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
BEACHES ON SUNDAY.  
 
- THE VAST MAJORITY OF MARINE IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM  
CHANTAL WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS,  
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
- POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH  
LATE MONDAY.  
 
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MUCH OF  
THE AREA. WHILE TO THE SOUTH, TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL CURRENTLY SITS  
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE REMAINING  
BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT WITH  
SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH HAVE BUILT  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ARE BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FT. WHILE ACROSS THE BAY  
WAVES ARE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FT WITH 3 FT WAVES ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE  
BAY. TO THE NORTH SEAS HAVE YET TO BUILD BUT ARE BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT.  
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO  
BREAK DOWN ALLOWING TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL TO NUDGE NORTH. WINDS  
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT WITH  
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH ACROSS  
THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS  
THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT ACROSS THE BAY. BY SUNDAY MORNING TROPICAL  
STORM CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTH  
CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH. WHEN IT TRACKS  
NORTH IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE  
LOCAL WATERS. LOCAL WIND PROBS HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY AND ARE NOW  
BETWEEN 30 TO 60% OF 18+ KT WINDS ON THE BAY FOR A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD  
SUN AFTN/EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL  
SCAS. WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY MORNING BUT RAMP BACK UP AGAIN  
AS THE REMNANTS OF TS CHANTAL MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT. SEAS  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE BAY AND 3 TO  
4FT WITH ISOLATED 5 FT WAVES ACROSS THE OCEAN. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO  
BECOME S AND DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY EXITS.  
VARIABLE MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK  
WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.  
 
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES  
ON SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES. THIS  
IS DUE TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WAVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES AND  
HIGH PERIOD SWELL WITH PERIODS UP TO 15 SECONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS  
ALL AREA BEACHES. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH  
ON MONDAY AS WELL ACROSS ALL AREA BEACHES.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MAM  
NEAR TERM...MAM/RMM  
SHORT TERM...AC/MAM  
LONG TERM...AC/MAM  
AVIATION...RMM  
MARINE...ERI/HET/RMM  
 
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