129
FXUS61 KAKQ 060658
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
258 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS POISED TO
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A
FEW EMBEDDED STORMS, PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BEHIND THE STORM, VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY HIT OR MISS TYPE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 255 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TOMORROW AS REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE RIDGING IN OVER THE LOCAL AREA. TO THE SOUTH, TS
CHANTAL IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SC LATER THIS MORNING.
CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTH OF THE STORM HAS ALREADY MOVED IN
OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND A SMALL BAND OF
PRECIP IS VISIBLE ON RADAR NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. TEMPS AS OF
LATEST OBS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NC COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 60S NW TO LOW
70S SE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HUMID
CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE
AREA.
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THESE LARGELY STAY FOCUSED
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN NECK. EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS TO
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND REMAINING
WIDELY SCATTERED NORTH OF THERE. WITH DEEP SATURATION, PWATS
STEADILY CLIMBING OVER 2" FROM S TO N, AND MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG,
THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS TODAY.
WHILE OVERALL QPF TODAY IS RELATIVELY LOW (0.25-0.5") LOCALIZED
AREAS COULD SEE A QUICK 1-2". WPC HAS PLACED AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF US-460 IN A MARGINAL ERO, WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE HIGHER
STORM COVERAGE TODAY. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF CHANTAL WILL DRIFT N THROUGH CENTRAL NC
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY EARLY MON MORNING, THE LOW SHOULD BE
NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. EXPECTING A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN ACTIVITY WITH
DIMINISHED STORM/SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE COVERAGE INCREASES AGAIN (MAINLY IN THE SW) AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE FA ON MONDAY, IT BECOMES BROADER/LESS
DEFINED. NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN,
ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS CLIMBING TOWARD 2.5"/DEEP SATURATION
PERSISTING. THE 00Z HREF KEYS IN ON AREAS E OF I-95 FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL ON MONDAY WITH 50% PROBS FOR 1" IN 3 HOURS AND
10% PROBS FOR 3" IN 3 HOURS. WPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL ERO FOR
MOST OF THE AREA MON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
HIGHS ON MON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL LIFTS NORTHWARD.
- MAIN THREATS FROM CHANTAL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
ESPECIALLY HAMPTON ROADS AND NORTHEAST NC AND INCREASED RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS.
HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY, AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES BACK IN WITH THE SE FLOW AHEAD OF
CHANTAL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LAND IN SC BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT, THE SYSTEM QUICKLY WEAKENS
TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND PROGRESSES N UP THE COAST
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS E NC SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH SHOWERS/STORMS TO THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT CONCENTRATED MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS, BUT WITH PWATS
RISING TO 2 TO 2.5" OVER MUCH OF THE AREA (HIGHEST SE), ANY
SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALL BUT THE
EASTERN SHORE ARE NOW IN AN ERO FOR TOMORROW (SUNDAY).
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD DIMINISH AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN, AT LEAST INITIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, AS THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION CONTINUES NORTH AND CONTINUES
TO PULL IN TROPICAL MOISTURE, POPS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALL
OVER AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS
THE MAIN SENSIBLE WX THREAT. THERE REMAINS A STRONG MODEL
SIGNAL FOR IVT OF 600-800+ KG/M/S LIFTING ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING (95-98% PERCENTILE OF
CLIMO). GIVEN RECENT RAINS OF EARLIER THIS WEEK, THIS COULD
EASILY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING, AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF I-95 ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RAINFALL FORECAST CLOSELY
IN THE COMING DAY OR SO. THE MARGINAL ERO IS NOW IN PLACE FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA ON DAY 3 (MONDAY). PRECIP LOOKS TO MOSTLY COME
TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT, BUT A
FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER BY THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGHS ON BOTH
SUN AND MON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE
IN THE LOW- MID 70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BECOMING HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES.
AS THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL DEPART THE REGION, THE REST OF THE
WEEK LOOKS SEASONABLY WARM AND RATHER HUMID, WHILE REMAINING
UNSETTLED, DUE TO WEAK TROUGHINESS LINGERING ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
IN THE WEEK. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
TUES- WED, POTENTIALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THURS-
FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S TUES AND WED, THEN PERHAPS A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER TO END THE WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE RETURN OF TEMPS IN THE 90S AND THE
HUMIDITY ALSO MEANS A RETURN TO HEAT INDICES RIGHT AROUND 100
DEGREES. HAVE UNDERCUT HEAT INDICES A BIT ONCE AGAIN, WITH THE
IDEA THAT BL REMAINS MIXED ENOUGH TUE-WED TO BREAK WIDESPREAD
UPPER 70S TD VALUES CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE NBM.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE TERMINALS TO START THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
TS CHANTAL MAKES LANDFALL OVER SC AND THE REMNANTS DRIFT N
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. BY MID AFTERNOON, THE TERMINALS (EXCEPT
PERHAPS SBY) SHOULD BE UNDER BKN CLOUD COVER. CIGS LOOK TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH ~12Z, THEN DROPPING TO MVFR FOR ECG/ORF/PHF.
COULD SEE A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP
FOR ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A FEW ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW WILL MEAN
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES TO IMPACT TERMINALS. ECG WILL BE THE
FIRST TO SEE PRECIP AS RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE S. SBY LIKELY
STAYS DRY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. VSBYS COULD BE BRIEFLY
IMPACTED AS HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. SE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15KT
TODAY, THEN BACK TO 5-10KT OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS ALL AREAS ON MON, WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR
POSSIBLE. VERY WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TUE THROUGH
THU, WITH LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE,
ALONG WITH SOME EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG/STRATUS.
MARINE
AS OF 210 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES
TODAY.
- THE VAST MAJORITY OF MARINE IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM
CHANTAL WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS,
BUT SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE CHARLES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH PART OF TONIGHT.
- WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF
SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM TUESDAY-FRIDAY WITH DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL TO OUR SOUTH (ABOUT TO
MAKE LANDFALL IN SC). WINDS ARE ESE AT ~10 KT WITH ~3 FT SEAS AND 1-
2 FT WAVES. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN SC, CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN WHILE MOVING MORE TO THE N THEN NE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL LIKELY CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF CHANTAL LATER TODAY,
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SE AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT (WITH 20-25 KT
GUSTS) BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING BY A FEW KNOTS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR 18+ KT HAVE INCREASED TO 50-75%
ON THE BAY FOR A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN-LATE THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED SCAS FOR THE BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND
FROM 17-20Z/1-4 PM THROUGH 05Z/1 AM. ALSO, SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT N/4-
5 FT S BY LATE THIS AFTN, SO HAVE ISSUED SCAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
S OF CAPE CHARLES FROM 20Z/4 PM-08Z/4 AM. WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 15-20 KT BY MIDDAY/AFTN ON
MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT
ROUND OF SCAS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY, AND THE
NORTHERN THREE COASTAL ZONES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED GIVEN THAT SEAS
COULD INCREASE TO 4-5 FT WITH THE ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS.
REGARDLESS, WINDS ARE FORECAST DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE
LOW SLOWLY EXITS. VARIABLE MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND DIURNAL
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES
TODAY WITH A MODERATE RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES. THIS IS DUE
TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WAVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES AND HIGH
PERIOD SWELL WITH PERIODS UP TO 15 SECONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL AREA
BEACHES. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH ON MONDAY AS
WELL ACROSS ALL AREA BEACHES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC/MAM
LONG TERM...AC/MAM
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...ERI
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