129  
FXUS61 KAKQ 060658  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
258 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS POISED TO  
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A  
FEW EMBEDDED STORMS, PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.  
BEHIND THE STORM, VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY HIT OR MISS TYPE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
AS OF 255 AM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY  
AND TOMORROW AS REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  
ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  
 
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL  
OFFSHORE RIDGING IN OVER THE LOCAL AREA. TO THE SOUTH, TS  
CHANTAL IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SC LATER THIS MORNING.  
CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTH OF THE STORM HAS ALREADY MOVED IN  
OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND A SMALL BAND OF  
PRECIP IS VISIBLE ON RADAR NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. TEMPS AS OF  
LATEST OBS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 WITH THE  
EXCEPTION OF THE NC COUNTIES WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID-  
UPPER 70S. LOWS THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 60S NW TO LOW  
70S SE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HUMID  
CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE  
AREA.  
 
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD  
ACROSS THE AREA. THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THESE LARGELY STAY FOCUSED  
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE ISOLATED  
SHOWERS AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN NECK. EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS TO  
BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND REMAINING  
WIDELY SCATTERED NORTH OF THERE. WITH DEEP SATURATION, PWATS  
STEADILY CLIMBING OVER 2" FROM S TO N, AND MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG,  
THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS TODAY.  
WHILE OVERALL QPF TODAY IS RELATIVELY LOW (0.25-0.5") LOCALIZED  
AREAS COULD SEE A QUICK 1-2". WPC HAS PLACED AREAS GENERALLY ALONG  
AND SOUTH OF US-460 IN A MARGINAL ERO, WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE HIGHER  
STORM COVERAGE TODAY. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING WILL BE  
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.  
 
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF CHANTAL WILL DRIFT N THROUGH CENTRAL NC  
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY EARLY MON MORNING, THE LOW SHOULD BE  
NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. EXPECTING A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN ACTIVITY WITH  
DIMINISHED STORM/SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT  
BEFORE COVERAGE INCREASES AGAIN (MAINLY IN THE SW) AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE FA ON MONDAY, IT BECOMES BROADER/LESS  
DEFINED. NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN,  
ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS CLIMBING TOWARD 2.5"/DEEP SATURATION  
PERSISTING. THE 00Z HREF KEYS IN ON AREAS E OF I-95 FOR THE  
HEAVIEST RAINFALL ON MONDAY WITH 50% PROBS FOR 1" IN 3 HOURS AND  
10% PROBS FOR 3" IN 3 HOURS. WPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL ERO FOR  
MOST OF THE AREA MON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN TIER OF  
COUNTIES. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.  
HIGHS ON MON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS  
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL LIFTS NORTHWARD.  
 
- MAIN THREATS FROM CHANTAL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,  
ESPECIALLY HAMPTON ROADS AND NORTHEAST NC AND INCREASED RISK  
FOR RIP CURRENTS.  
 
HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY, AS  
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES BACK IN WITH THE SE FLOW AHEAD OF  
CHANTAL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LAND IN SC BY  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT, THE SYSTEM QUICKLY WEAKENS  
TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND PROGRESSES N UP THE COAST  
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS E NC SUNDAY MORNING,  
WITH SHOWERS/STORMS TO THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE  
AFTERNOON, BUT CONCENTRATED MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.  
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS, BUT WITH PWATS  
RISING TO 2 TO 2.5" OVER MUCH OF THE AREA (HIGHEST SE), ANY  
SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALL BUT THE  
EASTERN SHORE ARE NOW IN AN ERO FOR TOMORROW (SUNDAY).  
 
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD DIMINISH AREAL COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN, AT LEAST INITIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT.  
HOWEVER, AS THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION CONTINUES NORTH AND CONTINUES  
TO PULL IN TROPICAL MOISTURE, POPS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALL  
OVER AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS  
THE MAIN SENSIBLE WX THREAT. THERE REMAINS A STRONG MODEL  
SIGNAL FOR IVT OF 600-800+ KG/M/S LIFTING ACROSS THE COASTAL  
PLAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING (95-98% PERCENTILE OF  
CLIMO). GIVEN RECENT RAINS OF EARLIER THIS WEEK, THIS COULD  
EASILY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF  
FLASH FLOODING, AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF I-95 ALONG THE COASTAL  
PLAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RAINFALL FORECAST CLOSELY  
IN THE COMING DAY OR SO. THE MARGINAL ERO IS NOW IN PLACE FOR  
THE ENTIRE AREA ON DAY 3 (MONDAY). PRECIP LOOKS TO MOSTLY COME  
TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT, BUT A  
FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER BY THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGHS ON BOTH  
SUN AND MON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE  
IN THE LOW- MID 70S.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- BECOMING HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK  
WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES.  
 
AS THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL DEPART THE REGION, THE REST OF THE  
WEEK LOOKS SEASONABLY WARM AND RATHER HUMID, WHILE REMAINING  
UNSETTLED, DUE TO WEAK TROUGHINESS LINGERING ACROSS THE MID-  
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE  
IN THE WEEK. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH  
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY  
TUES- WED, POTENTIALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THURS-  
FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.  
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S TUES AND WED, THEN PERHAPS A  
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER TO END THE WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND  
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE RETURN OF TEMPS IN THE 90S AND THE  
HUMIDITY ALSO MEANS A RETURN TO HEAT INDICES RIGHT AROUND 100  
DEGREES. HAVE UNDERCUT HEAT INDICES A BIT ONCE AGAIN, WITH THE  
IDEA THAT BL REMAINS MIXED ENOUGH TUE-WED TO BREAK WIDESPREAD  
UPPER 70S TD VALUES CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE NBM.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
AS OF 150 AM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE TERMINALS TO START THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.  
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS  
TS CHANTAL MAKES LANDFALL OVER SC AND THE REMNANTS DRIFT N  
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. BY MID AFTERNOON, THE TERMINALS (EXCEPT  
PERHAPS SBY) SHOULD BE UNDER BKN CLOUD COVER. CIGS LOOK TO  
REMAIN VFR THROUGH ~12Z, THEN DROPPING TO MVFR FOR ECG/ORF/PHF.  
COULD SEE A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS DROP  
FOR ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A FEW ROUNDS OF SCATTERED  
SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW WILL MEAN  
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES TO IMPACT TERMINALS. ECG WILL BE THE  
FIRST TO SEE PRECIP AS RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE S. SBY LIKELY  
STAYS DRY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. VSBYS COULD BE BRIEFLY  
IMPACTED AS HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. SE WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15KT  
TODAY, THEN BACK TO 5-10KT OVERNIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY  
ACROSS ALL AREAS ON MON, WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR  
POSSIBLE. VERY WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TUE THROUGH  
THU, WITH LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE,  
ALONG WITH SOME EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG/STRATUS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
AS OF 210 AM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES  
TODAY.  
 
- THE VAST MAJORITY OF MARINE IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM  
CHANTAL WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS,  
BUT SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH  
OF CAPE CHARLES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH PART OF TONIGHT.  
 
- WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF  
SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM TUESDAY-FRIDAY WITH DAILY  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  
 
SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH  
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL TO OUR SOUTH (ABOUT TO  
MAKE LANDFALL IN SC). WINDS ARE ESE AT ~10 KT WITH ~3 FT SEAS AND 1-  
2 FT WAVES. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN SC, CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO  
WEAKEN WHILE MOVING MORE TO THE N THEN NE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  
THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL LIKELY CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF CHANTAL LATER TODAY,  
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SE AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT (WITH 20-25 KT  
GUSTS) BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH  
THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING BY A FEW KNOTS EARLY  
MONDAY MORNING. LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR 18+ KT HAVE INCREASED TO 50-75%  
ON THE BAY FOR A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN-LATE THIS EVENING.  
THEREFORE, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED SCAS FOR THE BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND  
FROM 17-20Z/1-4 PM THROUGH 05Z/1 AM. ALSO, SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT N/4-  
5 FT S BY LATE THIS AFTN, SO HAVE ISSUED SCAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS  
S OF CAPE CHARLES FROM 20Z/4 PM-08Z/4 AM. WINDS BECOME MORE  
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 15-20 KT BY MIDDAY/AFTN ON  
MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT  
ROUND OF SCAS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY, AND THE  
NORTHERN THREE COASTAL ZONES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED GIVEN THAT SEAS  
COULD INCREASE TO 4-5 FT WITH THE ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS.  
REGARDLESS, WINDS ARE FORECAST DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE  
LOW SLOWLY EXITS. VARIABLE MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND DIURNAL  
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.  
 
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES  
TODAY WITH A MODERATE RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES. THIS IS DUE  
TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WAVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES AND HIGH  
PERIOD SWELL WITH PERIODS UP TO 15 SECONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL AREA  
BEACHES. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH ON MONDAY AS  
WELL ACROSS ALL AREA BEACHES.  
 
 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT  
MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT  
MONDAY FOR ANZ632>634.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT  
MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...MAM  
NEAR TERM...AC  
SHORT TERM...AC/MAM  
LONG TERM...AC/MAM  
AVIATION...AC  
MARINE...ERI  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab VA Page
The Nexlab NC Page
The Nexlab MD Page
Main Text Page