163
FXUS61 KAKQ 061738
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS POISED TO
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A
FEW EMBEDDED STORMS, PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BEHIND THE STORM, VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY HIT OR MISS TYPE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 843 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY
AND TOMORROW AS REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE RIDGING IN OVER THE LOCAL AREA. TO THE SOUTH, TS
CHANTAL HAS MADE LANDFALL AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NE SC.
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH OF THE STORM AND IS ALREADY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND A SMALL BAND OF
PRECIP IS VISIBLE ON RADAR NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. TEMPS AS OF
LATEST OBS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NC COUNTIES AND SE VA WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS
INTO THE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THESE LARGELY STAY FOCUSED OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN NECK. EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS TO BECOME
A BIT MORE NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND REMAINING
WIDELY SCATTERED NORTH OF THERE. WITH DEEP SATURATION, PWATS
STEADILY CLIMBING OVER 2" FROM S TO N, AND MLCAPE OF 1000-1500
J/KG, THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
STORMS TODAY. WHILE OVERALL QPF TODAY IS RELATIVELY LOW
(0.25-0.5") LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE A QUICK 1-2". WPC HAS
PLACED AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-460 IN A MARGINAL
ERO, WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE HIGHER STORM COVERAGE TODAY. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN
OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN ADDITION, A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS FAR NE NC AND SE VA WITH THE TROPICAL BANDS
THAT MOVE THROUGH. SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK, HOWEVER, SOME
HIGH-RES MODELS DO HINT ON 0-1 SRH VALUES NEARING 100 M^2/S^2.
AS WELL AS SOME SOME POSSIBLE LOCAL ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
RIVERS.
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF CHANTAL WILL DRIFT N THROUGH CENTRAL NC
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY EARLY MON MORNING, THE LOW SHOULD BE
NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. EXPECTING A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN ACTIVITY WITH
DIMINISHED STORM/SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE COVERAGE INCREASES AGAIN (MAINLY IN THE SW) AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE FA ON MONDAY, IT BECOMES BROADER/LESS
DEFINED. NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN,
ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS CLIMBING TOWARD 2.5"/DEEP SATURATION
PERSISTING. THE 00Z HREF KEYS IN ON AREAS E OF I-95 FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL ON MONDAY WITH 50% PROBS FOR 1" IN 3 HOURS AND
10% PROBS FOR 3" IN 3 HOURS. WPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL ERO FOR
MOST OF THE AREA MON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
HIGHS ON MON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- TYPICAL JULY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HOT, HUMID WEATHER AND
DAILY STORM CHANCES
TUES AND WED WILL BE TYPICAL OF JULY WITH HOT, HUMID WEATHER AND
DAILY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN BORDER, THEN STALL OUT FOR A FEW DAYS. TUES
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. CANNOT RULE
OUT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT THIS POINT,
SINCE HEAT INDICES LOOK TO BE ~105F. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE AROUND 90.
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS ON TUES WILL BE ACROSS THE NW, WHILE
HIGHEST COVERAGE ON WED WILL BE S OF I-64. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STAYING HOT AND HUMID THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STORM
ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURS/FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES WHILE THE STALLED OUT FRONT REMAINS NEARBY. STILL
EXPECTING STORMS ON SAT, TOO, BUT COVERAGE IS MORE UNCERTAIN
SINCE THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 THROUGH THURS-SAT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY NORTH AHEAD OF TD
CHANTAL. LATEST RADAR INDICATED LIGHT POP UP SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND CAUSING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND SPOTTY. TEMPOS HAVE BEEN ADDED
ACROSS THE VA AND NC TERMINALS TO COVER THESE BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 00Z. THE HEAVIER BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ACROSS NC THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THESE STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAKE THEIR
WAY ACROSS ECG. WITH THIS STRUGGLE IT HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO
PUT A PREVAILING GROUP ON WHEN THE STRONGER STORMS WILL APPROACH
THE TERMINAL. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KT OUT
OF THE SE ACROSS SBY AND RIC. ACROSS THE SE, WINDS REMAIN
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20KT OUT OF THE SE.
LATER THIS EVENING ONCE TD CHANTAL BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH CIGS
WILL DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SE AND SBY. WHILE ACROSS
RIC CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
LAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS ALL AREAS ON MON, WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR
POSSIBLE. VERY WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TUE THROUGH
THU, WITH LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE,
ALONG WITH SOME EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG/STRATUS.
MARINE
AS OF 210 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES
TODAY.
- THE VAST MAJORITY OF MARINE IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM
CHANTAL WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS,
BUT SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF CAPE CHARLES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH PART OF TONIGHT.
- WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF
SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM TUESDAY-FRIDAY WITH DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL TO OUR SOUTH (ABOUT TO
MAKE LANDFALL IN SC). WINDS ARE ESE AT ~10 KT WITH ~3 FT SEAS AND 1-
2 FT WAVES. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN SC, CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN WHILE MOVING MORE TO THE N THEN NE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL LIKELY CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF CHANTAL LATER TODAY,
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SE AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT (WITH 20-25 KT
GUSTS) BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING BY A FEW KNOTS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR 18+ KT HAVE INCREASED TO 50-75%
ON THE BAY FOR A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN-LATE THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED SCAS FOR THE BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND
FROM 17-20Z/1-4 PM THROUGH 05Z/1 AM. ALSO, SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT N/4-
5 FT S BY LATE THIS AFTN, SO HAVE ISSUED SCAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
S OF CAPE CHARLES FROM 20Z/4 PM-08Z/4 AM. WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 15-20 KT BY MIDDAY/AFTN ON
MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT
ROUND OF SCAS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY, AND THE
NORTHERN THREE COASTAL ZONES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED GIVEN THAT SEAS
COULD INCREASE TO 4-5 FT WITH THE ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS.
REGARDLESS, WINDS ARE FORECAST DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE
LOW SLOWLY EXITS. VARIABLE MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND DIURNAL
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES
TODAY WITH A MODERATE RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES. THIS IS DUE
TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WAVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES AND HIGH
PERIOD SWELL WITH PERIODS UP TO 15 SECONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL AREA
BEACHES. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH ON MONDAY AS
WELL ACROSS ALL AREA BEACHES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AC/HET
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC/MAM
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...ERI
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