163  
FXUS61 KAKQ 061738  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
138 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS POISED TO  
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A  
FEW EMBEDDED STORMS, PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.  
BEHIND THE STORM, VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY HIT OR MISS TYPE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
AS OF 843 AM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY  
AND TOMORROW AS REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  
ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  
 
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL  
OFFSHORE RIDGING IN OVER THE LOCAL AREA. TO THE SOUTH, TS  
CHANTAL HAS MADE LANDFALL AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NE SC.  
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH OF THE STORM AND IS ALREADY  
OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND A SMALL BAND OF  
PRECIP IS VISIBLE ON RADAR NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. TEMPS AS OF  
LATEST OBS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH THE  
EXCEPTION OF THE NC COUNTIES AND SE VA WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE  
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER  
80S. HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS  
INTO THE AREA.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.  
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THESE LARGELY STAY FOCUSED OVER THE  
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AS FAR AS THE NORTHERN NECK. EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS TO BECOME  
A BIT MORE NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND REMAINING  
WIDELY SCATTERED NORTH OF THERE. WITH DEEP SATURATION, PWATS  
STEADILY CLIMBING OVER 2" FROM S TO N, AND MLCAPE OF 1000-1500  
J/KG, THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH  
STORMS TODAY. WHILE OVERALL QPF TODAY IS RELATIVELY LOW  
(0.25-0.5") LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE A QUICK 1-2". WPC HAS  
PLACED AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-460 IN A MARGINAL  
ERO, WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE HIGHER STORM COVERAGE TODAY. ISOLATED  
INSTANCES OF FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN URBAN  
OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN ADDITION, A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE  
RULED OUT ACROSS FAR NE NC AND SE VA WITH THE TROPICAL BANDS  
THAT MOVE THROUGH. SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK, HOWEVER, SOME  
HIGH-RES MODELS DO HINT ON 0-1 SRH VALUES NEARING 100 M^2/S^2.  
AS WELL AS SOME SOME POSSIBLE LOCAL ENHANCEMENT FROM THE  
RIVERS.  
 
THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF CHANTAL WILL DRIFT N THROUGH CENTRAL NC  
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BY EARLY MON MORNING, THE LOW SHOULD BE  
NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER. EXPECTING A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN ACTIVITY WITH  
DIMINISHED STORM/SHOWER COVERAGE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT  
BEFORE COVERAGE INCREASES AGAIN (MAINLY IN THE SW) AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE FA ON MONDAY, IT BECOMES BROADER/LESS  
DEFINED. NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN,  
ESPECIALLY WITH PWATS CLIMBING TOWARD 2.5"/DEEP SATURATION  
PERSISTING. THE 00Z HREF KEYS IN ON AREAS E OF I-95 FOR THE  
HEAVIEST RAINFALL ON MONDAY WITH 50% PROBS FOR 1" IN 3 HOURS AND  
10% PROBS FOR 3" IN 3 HOURS. WPC HAS PLACED A MARGINAL ERO FOR  
MOST OF THE AREA MON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN TIER OF  
COUNTIES. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.  
HIGHS ON MON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- TYPICAL JULY WEATHER EXPECTED WITH HOT, HUMID WEATHER AND  
DAILY STORM CHANCES  
 
TUES AND WED WILL BE TYPICAL OF JULY WITH HOT, HUMID WEATHER AND  
DAILY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH  
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN BORDER, THEN STALL OUT FOR A FEW DAYS. TUES  
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. CANNOT RULE  
OUT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT THIS POINT,  
SINCE HEAT INDICES LOOK TO BE ~105F. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE AROUND 90.  
HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS ON TUES WILL BE ACROSS THE NW, WHILE  
HIGHEST COVERAGE ON WED WILL BE S OF I-64. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF  
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- STAYING HOT AND HUMID THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES.  
 
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STORM  
ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURS/FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT  
INCREASES WHILE THE STALLED OUT FRONT REMAINS NEARBY. STILL  
EXPECTING STORMS ON SAT, TOO, BUT COVERAGE IS MORE UNCERTAIN  
SINCE THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS. HIGHS  
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 THROUGH THURS-SAT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS  
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY NORTH AHEAD OF TD  
CHANTAL. LATEST RADAR INDICATED LIGHT POP UP SHOWERS MOVING  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND CAUSING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.  
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND SPOTTY. TEMPOS HAVE BEEN ADDED  
ACROSS THE VA AND NC TERMINALS TO COVER THESE BRIEF FLIGHT  
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 00Z. THE HEAVIER BAND OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ACROSS NC THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE  
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THESE STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAKE THEIR  
WAY ACROSS ECG. WITH THIS STRUGGLE IT HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO  
PUT A PREVAILING GROUP ON WHEN THE STRONGER STORMS WILL APPROACH  
THE TERMINAL. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KT OUT  
OF THE SE ACROSS SBY AND RIC. ACROSS THE SE, WINDS REMAIN  
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20KT OUT OF THE SE.  
LATER THIS EVENING ONCE TD CHANTAL BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH CIGS  
WILL DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SE AND SBY. WHILE ACROSS  
RIC CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD  
LAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.  
 
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY  
ACROSS ALL AREAS ON MON, WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR  
POSSIBLE. VERY WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TUE THROUGH  
THU, WITH LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE,  
ALONG WITH SOME EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG/STRATUS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
AS OF 210 AM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES  
TODAY.  
 
- THE VAST MAJORITY OF MARINE IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM  
CHANTAL WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS,  
BUT SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH  
OF CAPE CHARLES FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH PART OF TONIGHT.  
 
- WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF  
SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM TUESDAY-FRIDAY WITH DAILY  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  
 
SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH  
PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL TO OUR SOUTH (ABOUT TO  
MAKE LANDFALL IN SC). WINDS ARE ESE AT ~10 KT WITH ~3 FT SEAS AND 1-  
2 FT WAVES. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN SC, CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO  
WEAKEN WHILE MOVING MORE TO THE N THEN NE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  
THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL LIKELY CROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF CHANTAL LATER TODAY,  
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME SE AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT (WITH 20-25 KT  
GUSTS) BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE ELEVATED WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH  
THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING BY A FEW KNOTS EARLY  
MONDAY MORNING. LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR 18+ KT HAVE INCREASED TO 50-75%  
ON THE BAY FOR A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD LATE THIS AFTN-LATE THIS EVENING.  
THEREFORE, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED SCAS FOR THE BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND  
FROM 17-20Z/1-4 PM THROUGH 05Z/1 AM. ALSO, SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT N/4-  
5 FT S BY LATE THIS AFTN, SO HAVE ISSUED SCAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS  
S OF CAPE CHARLES FROM 20Z/4 PM-08Z/4 AM. WINDS BECOME MORE  
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 15-20 KT BY MIDDAY/AFTN ON  
MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT  
ROUND OF SCAS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY, AND THE  
NORTHERN THREE COASTAL ZONES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED GIVEN THAT SEAS  
COULD INCREASE TO 4-5 FT WITH THE ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS.  
REGARDLESS, WINDS ARE FORECAST DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE  
LOW SLOWLY EXITS. VARIABLE MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND DIURNAL  
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.  
 
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES  
TODAY WITH A MODERATE RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES. THIS IS DUE  
TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WAVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES AND HIGH  
PERIOD SWELL WITH PERIODS UP TO 15 SECONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL AREA  
BEACHES. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE TO HIGH ON MONDAY AS  
WELL ACROSS ALL AREA BEACHES.  
 
 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ632>634.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...MAM  
NEAR TERM...AC/HET  
SHORT TERM...AC  
LONG TERM...AC/MAM  
AVIATION...HET  
MARINE...ERI  
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