007  
FXUS61 KAKQ 061914  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
314 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL ACROSS SE NC IS POISED TO MOVE  
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW  
EMBEDDED STORMS, PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.  
BEHIND THE STORM, VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY HIT OR MISS TYPE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- SMALL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR SW COUNTIES.  
 
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS  
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AS REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  
ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  
 
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS TD CHANTAL LOCATED OVER FAR SE NC  
AS OF 2PM. A PSEUDO WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  
BEHIND THIS FRONT A RICH TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AND ISOLATED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INITIATE. THE MAJORITY OF  
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BRIEF. HOWEVER, FURTHER TO THE  
SOUTH ACROSS NC A HEAVIER BAND OF TROPICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN  
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER  
TO MIDDLE 70S TONIGHT.  
 
LATER THIS AFTERNOON TD CHANTAL IS EXPECTED SLOWLY MOVE NORTH. AS IT  
MOVES FORWARD THE HEAVIER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE  
HAZARDS. LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO HINT ON SOME POTENTIAL  
FOR 100 M^2/S^2 OF 0-1KM OF SRH. THIS IS JUST SUITABLE ENOUGH TO  
NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC.  
IN ADDITION TO THE BRIEF TORNADO THREAT, A RICH TROPICAL AIRMASS IS  
CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. PW THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO  
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2 TO 2.5".OVERALL THIS AFTERNOON  
AND INTO TONIGHT MOST AREAS MAY SEE .25" TO .5" OF QPF. HOWEVER,  
SOME HIGH-RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BAND OF HEAVIER  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE US-15 CORRIDOR FROM  
PRINCE EDWARD COUNTY DOWN INTO MECKLENBURG COUNTY. THESE HEAVIER  
BANDS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD QUICKLY DROP 1-2"  
MAYBE EVEN 3" OF RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WITH THE  
NEWEST GUIDANCE, TRENDS IN REAL TIME OBSERVATIONS, AND HIGH ENOUGH  
CONFIDENCE A LOCALIZED FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE THE US-15  
CORRIDOR STRETCHING FROM PRINCE EDWARD COUNTY DOWN TO MECKLENBURG  
COUNTY.  
 
BY TOMORROW MORNING THE REMNANT LOW OF CHANTAL SHOULD BE LOCATED  
NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. IT WILL HAVE LOST MOST OF ITS CHARACTERISTICS  
AND WILL BE MORE BROAD. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY  
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN FALL AS A RICH TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL STILL  
BE IN PLACE. THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TOMORROW  
AS PW WILL BE ~2.5". THE 00Z HREF CONTINUES TO PAINT A 50% PROB OF  
1" IN 3 HRS AND 30% OF 3" IN 3 HRS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND MD  
EASTERN SHORE. WPC CONTINUES TO HOLD IN PLACE A MARGINAL ERO FOR  
MOST OF THE AREA TOMORROW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN TIER OF  
COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER  
80S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- NORMAL JULY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HOT, HUMID WEATHER AND DAILY  
STORM CHANCES.  
 
BY TUESDAY THE REMNANT LOW OF CHANTAL WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AND  
NORMAL JULY WEATHER WILL RETURN ACROSS THE FA. FURTHER ALOFT WEAK  
500MB SW FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK  
FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. SOUTH OF THE  
FRONT A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TO BUILD IN PLACE. WITH  
ADEQUATE DAYTIME HEATING TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER MIDDLE  
90S. CANNOT RULE OUT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
AREA AT THIS POINT, SINCE HEAT INDICES LOOK TO BE ~105F. IN ADDITION  
TO THE HEAT ADVISORY AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH DCAPE  
VALUES BETWEEN 1100J/KG TO 1500J/KG. THIS IS SUITABLE FOR ANY PULSE  
STORM TO POTENTIALLY POSE THE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS. THE WEATHER FOR  
WEDNESDAY IS VERY SIMILAR WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY A LITTLE  
COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. THE GREATEST RISK  
FOR POTENTIAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE ACROSS THE SE WITH HEAT INDEX  
VALUES NEARING 105F.  
 
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- STAYING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES.  
 
THE LATEST ENSEMBLES 06/12Z CONTINUES TO SHOW SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT  
STILL WEAK ZONAL TO SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
THE FLOW ALOFT AND A STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH COULD  
POTENTIALLY HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MORE WIDE SPREAD ACROSS  
THE AREA. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.  
HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUE TO REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITHIN THE  
GLOBAL MODELS ON COVERAGE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE  
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 THROUGH  
THURS-SAT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS  
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY NORTH AHEAD OF TD  
CHANTAL. LATEST RADAR INDICATED LIGHT POP UP SHOWERS MOVING  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND CAUSING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.  
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND SPOTTY. TEMPOS HAVE BEEN ADDED  
ACROSS THE VA AND NC TERMINALS TO COVER THESE BRIEF FLIGHT  
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 00Z. THE HEAVIER BAND OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ACROSS NC THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE  
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THESE STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAKE THEIR  
WAY ACROSS ECG. WITH THIS STRUGGLE IT HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO  
PUT A PREVAILING GROUP ON WHEN THE STRONGER STORMS WILL APPROACH  
THE TERMINAL. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KT OUT  
OF THE SE ACROSS SBY AND RIC. ACROSS THE SE, WINDS REMAIN  
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20KT OUT OF THE SE.  
LATER THIS EVENING ONCE TD CHANTAL BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH CIGS  
WILL DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SE AND SBY. WHILE ACROSS  
RIC CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD  
LAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.  
 
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY  
ACROSS ALL AREAS ON MON, WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR  
POSSIBLE. VERY WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TUE THROUGH  
THU, WITH LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE,  
ALONG WITH SOME EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG/STRATUS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES  
THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
- SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT  
AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES THROUGH PART OF TONIGHT.  
SCA FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT HAS BEEN  
EXTENDED INTO MONDAY MORNING.  
 
- WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF  
SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND  
WITH BUILDING SEAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES.  
 
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY-FRIDAY WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES.  
 
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020MB SFC RIDGING SLIDING FARTHER OUT INTO  
THE ATLANTIC. TO THE SOUTH, NOW-TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL,  
DOWNGRADED LATE THIS MORNING, CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE OVER  
INLAND SE NC. GRADUALLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED  
WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT IN THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL  
WATERS, WITH WINDS REMAINING ~10-15 KT ELSEWHERE, WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 20 KT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER BAY.  
 
CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NNE ACROSS  
EAST-CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE POST-  
TROPICAL REMNANTS OF CHANTAL TO LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON  
MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF  
CHANTAL INTO THIS EVENING, WITH SE WINDS TO 15-20 KT (WITH 20-25 KT  
GUSTS) ACROSS THE BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS INTO THIS EVENING.  
AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY SLACKENS, EXPECT  
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOCAL  
WIND PROBS FOR 18+ KT REMAIN IN THE 50-70% ON THE BAY (LOWER BAY  
ESPECIALLY WITH CHANNELING WIND ENHANCEMENT) FOR A ~6-9 HOUR PERIOD  
FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. FOR THAT REASON, SCAS REMAIN IN PLACE  
FOR THE UPPER BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH 05Z/1 AM. PROBS LOWER BUT  
REMAIN IN THE 40-50% RANGE IN THE LOWER BAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING,  
SO HAVE THEREFORE EXTENDED SCA FOR THE LOWER BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT  
COMFORT UNTIL 14Z/10A. ON THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS ARE STILL  
LINGERING IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE (HIGHEST SOUTH) MADE UP OF A  
COMBINATION OF 5-7 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVE AND EASTERLY SWELL. STILL  
DO EXPECT 4-6 FT SEAS JUST SOUTH OF OREGON INLET TO BUILD NORTHWARD  
THIS EVENING, AND SO SCAS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS S  
OF CAPE CHARLES THROUGH 08Z/4 AM.  
 
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 15-20 KT BY  
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MONDAY AS THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVES  
OUT OF THE AREA. AS REFERENCED ABOVE, THE CURRENT ROUND OF SCAS MAY  
NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY MONDAY, BUT WILL  
OTHERWISE BE 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT FOR MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING  
AND AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE DAY, BUILDING WIND WAVE AND SWELL LIFTS  
UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN THREE COASTAL ZONES, AND WHILE PROBS ARE LOW  
AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF  
4-5 FT SEAS, ESPECIALLY LATER MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS TURN SSW. FOR  
NOW, HAVE HELD OFF WITH SCA FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL  
ZONES. REGARDLESS, WINDS ARE FORECAST DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY  
AS THE LOW SLOWLY EXITS. VARIABLE MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD  
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND MORE TYPICAL  
SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN BEACHES. THIS IS DUE TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WAVES ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN BEACHES AND HIGH PERIOD SWELL WITH PERIODS UP TO 15  
SECONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL AREA BEACHES. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL  
BE MODERATE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS ALL AREA BEACHES.  
 
 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ060-065-066.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ632-634.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ633.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...HET/MAM  
NEAR TERM...HET  
SHORT TERM...AC/HET  
LONG TERM...AC/HET  
AVIATION...HET  
MARINE...MAM  
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