160  
FXUS61 KAKQ 070527  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
127 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL ACROSS SE NC IS POISED TO MOVE  
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW  
EMBEDDED STORMS, PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.  
BEHIND THE STORM, VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY HIT OR MISS TYPE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/  
 
AS OF 1000 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTHEAST TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR  
OF THE RICHMOND METRO.  
 
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS  
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AS REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVE THROUGH THE  
AREA. ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  
 
EVENING WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS TD CHANTAL LOCATED IMMEDIATELY SW  
OF RALEIGH, NC. A PSEUDO WARM FRONT EXTENDS TO THE NE INTO THE  
EASTERN VA PIEDMONT. ALONG AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY A MOISTURE  
RICH AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES > 2.0". THE MAJORITY OF  
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM EARLIER HAVE DECAYED LOCALLY. HOWEVER,  
A LARGE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ON THE NW FLANK OF CHANTAL  
ACROSS N-CENTRAL NC AND NUDGING INTO SOUTHERN VA (W OF THE LOCAL  
AREA). WARM AND HUMID THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID  
TO UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.  
 
TD CHANTAL WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NE TONIGHT AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER,  
THERE WILL STILL BE AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NNE  
AND THIS WILL REMAIN A FOCAL POINT FOR HEAVY RAIN. PW VALUES  
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 2.5". SOME HIGH-RES  
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE US-15 CORRIDOR FROM PRINCE  
EDWARD COUNTY DOWN INTO MECKLENBURG COUNTY, AND THEN NUDGING NE  
TOWARD THE RIC METRO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THESE HEAVIER BANDS  
OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD QUICKLY DROP 1-2" MAYBE  
EVEN 3" OF RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WITH THE  
NEWEST GUIDANCE, TRENDS IN REAL TIME OBSERVATIONS, AND HIGH  
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NE TO THE  
I-95 CORRIDOR OF THE RIC METRO.  
 
BY TOMORROW MORNING THE REMNANT LOW OF CHANTAL SHOULD BE LOCATED  
IN S-CENTRAL VA. IT WILL HAVE LOST MOST OF ITS CHARACTERISTICS  
AND WILL BE MORE BROAD. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL HAVE THE  
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AS A RICH TROPICAL  
AIRMASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH  
FLOODING CONTINUES TOMORROW AS PW WILL BE ~2.5". THE 12Z HREF  
CONTINUES TO PAINT A 50% PROB OF 1" IN 3 HRS AND 30% OF 3" IN 3  
HRS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND MD EASTERN SHORE. WPC CONTINUES  
TO HOLD IN PLACE A MARGINAL ERO FOR MOST OF THE AREA TOMORROW  
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- NORMAL JULY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HOT, HUMID WEATHER AND DAILY  
STORM CHANCES.  
 
BY TUESDAY THE REMNANT LOW OF CHANTAL WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AND  
NORMAL JULY WEATHER WILL RETURN ACROSS THE FA. FURTHER ALOFT WEAK  
500MB SW FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK  
FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. SOUTH OF THE  
FRONT A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TO BUILD IN PLACE. WITH  
ADEQUATE DAYTIME HEATING TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER MIDDLE  
90S. CANNOT RULE OUT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
AREA AT THIS POINT, SINCE HEAT INDICES LOOK TO BE ~105F. IN ADDITION  
TO THE HEAT ADVISORY AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH DCAPE  
VALUES BETWEEN 1100J/KG TO 1500J/KG. THIS IS SUITABLE FOR ANY PULSE  
STORM TO POTENTIALLY POSE THE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS. THE WEATHER FOR  
WEDNESDAY IS VERY SIMILAR WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY A LITTLE  
COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. THE GREATEST RISK  
FOR POTENTIAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE ACROSS THE SE WITH HEAT INDEX  
VALUES NEARING 105F.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- STAYING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES.  
 
THE LATEST ENSEMBLES 06/12Z CONTINUES TO SHOW SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT  
STILL WEAK ZONAL TO SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
THE FLOW ALOFT AND A STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH COULD  
POTENTIALLY HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MORE WIDE SPREAD ACROSS  
THE AREA. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.  
HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUE TO REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITHIN THE  
GLOBAL MODELS ON COVERAGE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE  
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 THROUGH  
THURS-SAT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
AS OF 125 AM EDT MONDAY...  
 
TD CHANTAL IS CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE VA/NC  
BORDER AS OF 05Z. THE REMNANT LOW OF CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO  
LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION FROM 09Z-21Z MONDAY, AND NUDGING OFF  
THE COAST THEREAFTER. HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO SEE SOME DEGRADED  
CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS. MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS  
(CIGS AND VSBY) ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS  
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS AND DEGRADED  
FLIGHT CONDITIONS (PRIMARILY MVFR) MOVE TOWARD THE COAST LATER  
THIS MORNING AND LINGER INTO EARLY AFTN. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED  
AND WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. THE  
WIND WILL GENERALLY BE E TO SE AHEAD OF THE LOW, AND SHIFTS TO  
SW AS THE LOW DEPARTS, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE TOWARD  
THE COAST.  
 
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH  
FRIDAY, WITH LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE, ALONG  
WITH SOME EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG/STRATUS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES  
THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
- SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER BAY NORTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT  
AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES THROUGH PART OF TONIGHT.  
SCA FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT HAS BEEN  
EXTENDED INTO MONDAY MORNING.  
 
- WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF  
SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND  
WITH BUILDING SEAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES.  
 
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY-FRIDAY WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES.  
 
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1020MB SFC RIDGING SLIDING FARTHER OUT INTO  
THE ATLANTIC. TO THE SOUTH, NOW-TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL,  
DOWNGRADED LATE THIS MORNING, CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NNE OVER  
INLAND SE NC. GRADUALLY TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED  
WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT IN THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL  
WATERS, WITH WINDS REMAINING ~10-15 KT ELSEWHERE, WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 20 KT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER BAY.  
 
CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NNE ACROSS  
EAST-CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE POST-  
TROPICAL REMNANTS OF CHANTAL TO LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON  
MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF  
CHANTAL INTO THIS EVENING, WITH SE WINDS TO 15-20 KT (WITH 20-25 KT  
GUSTS) ACROSS THE BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS INTO THIS EVENING.  
AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY SLACKENS, EXPECT  
WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOCAL  
WIND PROBS FOR 18+ KT REMAIN IN THE 50-70% ON THE BAY (LOWER BAY  
ESPECIALLY WITH CHANNELING WIND ENHANCEMENT) FOR A ~6-9 HOUR PERIOD  
FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. FOR THAT REASON, SCAS REMAIN IN PLACE  
FOR THE UPPER BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH 05Z/1 AM. PROBS LOWER BUT  
REMAIN IN THE 40-50% RANGE IN THE LOWER BAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING,  
SO HAVE THEREFORE EXTENDED SCA FOR THE LOWER BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT  
COMFORT UNTIL 14Z/10A. ON THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS ARE STILL  
LINGERING IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE (HIGHEST SOUTH) MADE UP OF A  
COMBINATION OF 5-7 SECOND PERIOD WIND WAVE AND EASTERLY SWELL. STILL  
DO EXPECT 4-6 FT SEAS JUST SOUTH OF OREGON INLET TO BUILD NORTHWARD  
THIS EVENING, AND SO SCAS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS S  
OF CAPE CHARLES THROUGH 08Z/4 AM.  
 
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 15-20 KT BY  
MIDDAY/AFTN ON MONDAY AS THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVES  
OUT OF THE AREA. AS REFERENCED ABOVE, THE CURRENT ROUND OF SCAS MAY  
NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY MONDAY, BUT WILL  
OTHERWISE BE 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT FOR MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING  
AND AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE DAY, BUILDING WIND WAVE AND SWELL LIFTS  
UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN THREE COASTAL ZONES, AND WHILE PROBS ARE LOW  
AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF  
4-5 FT SEAS, ESPECIALLY LATER MONDAY EVENING AS WINDS TURN SSW. FOR  
NOW, HAVE HELD OFF WITH SCA FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL  
ZONES. REGARDLESS, WINDS ARE FORECAST DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY  
AS THE LOW SLOWLY EXITS. VARIABLE MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD  
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND MORE TYPICAL  
SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A MODERATE RISK ACROSS  
THE NORTHERN BEACHES. THIS IS DUE TO 3-4 FT NEARSHORE WAVES ACROSS  
THE SOUTHERN BEACHES AND HIGH PERIOD SWELL WITH PERIODS UP TO 15  
SECONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL AREA BEACHES. THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL  
BE MODERATE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS ALL AREA BEACHES.  
 
 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ060-065-066.  
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ061-062-  
067>069-079-080-513>515.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
ANZ632>634.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS  
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ638.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-  
658.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...HET/MAM  
NEAR TERM...AJZ/HET  
SHORT TERM...AC/HET  
LONG TERM...AC/HET  
AVIATION...AJZ/AC  
MARINE...MAM  
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