789
FXUS61 KAKQ 070618
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL ACROSS SE NC IS POISED TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED STORMS, PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
BEHIND THE STORM, VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY HIT OR MISS TYPE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 1000 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTHEAST TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR
OF THE RICHMOND METRO.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AS REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
EVENING WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS TD CHANTAL LOCATED IMMEDIATELY SW
OF RALEIGH, NC. A PSEUDO WARM FRONT EXTENDS TO THE NE INTO THE
EASTERN VA PIEDMONT. ALONG AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY A MOISTURE
RICH AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES > 2.0". THE MAJORITY OF
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM EARLIER HAVE DECAYED LOCALLY. HOWEVER,
A LARGE BAND OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES ON THE NW FLANK OF CHANTAL
ACROSS N-CENTRAL NC AND NUDGING INTO SOUTHERN VA (W OF THE LOCAL
AREA). WARM AND HUMID THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TD CHANTAL WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NE TONIGHT AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER,
THERE WILL STILL BE AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE NNE
AND THIS WILL REMAIN A FOCAL POINT FOR HEAVY RAIN. PW VALUES
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 2.5". SOME HIGH-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE US-15 CORRIDOR FROM PRINCE
EDWARD COUNTY DOWN INTO MECKLENBURG COUNTY, AND THEN NUDGING NE
TOWARD THE RIC METRO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THESE HEAVIER BANDS
OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD QUICKLY DROP 1-2" MAYBE
EVEN 3" OF RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WITH THE
NEWEST GUIDANCE, TRENDS IN REAL TIME OBSERVATIONS, AND HIGH
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NE TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR OF THE RIC METRO.
BY TOMORROW MORNING THE REMNANT LOW OF CHANTAL SHOULD BE LOCATED
IN S-CENTRAL VA. IT WILL HAVE LOST MOST OF ITS CHARACTERISTICS
AND WILL BE MORE BROAD. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AS A RICH TROPICAL
AIRMASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUES TOMORROW AS PW WILL BE ~2.5". THE 12Z HREF
CONTINUES TO PAINT A 50% PROB OF 1" IN 3 HRS AND 30% OF 3" IN 3
HRS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND MD EASTERN SHORE. WPC CONTINUES
TO HOLD IN PLACE A MARGINAL ERO FOR MOST OF THE AREA TOMORROW
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- NORMAL JULY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HOT, HUMID WEATHER AND DAILY
STORM CHANCES.
BY TUESDAY THE REMNANT LOW OF CHANTAL WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AND
NORMAL JULY WEATHER WILL RETURN ACROSS THE FA. FURTHER ALOFT WEAK
500MB SW FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TO BUILD IN PLACE. WITH
ADEQUATE DAYTIME HEATING TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER MIDDLE
90S. CANNOT RULE OUT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AT THIS POINT, SINCE HEAT INDICES LOOK TO BE ~105F. IN ADDITION
TO THE HEAT ADVISORY AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH DCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1100J/KG TO 1500J/KG. THIS IS SUITABLE FOR ANY PULSE
STORM TO POTENTIALLY POSE THE THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS. THE WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY IS VERY SIMILAR WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY A LITTLE
COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. THE GREATEST RISK
FOR POTENTIAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE ACROSS THE SE WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEARING 105F.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STAYING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLES 06/12Z CONTINUES TO SHOW SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT
STILL WEAK ZONAL TO SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE FLOW ALOFT AND A STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MORE WIDE SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUE TO REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITHIN THE
GLOBAL MODELS ON COVERAGE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS BETWEEN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 THROUGH
THURS-SAT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 125 AM EDT MONDAY...
TD CHANTAL IS CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE VA/NC
BORDER AS OF 05Z. THE REMNANT LOW OF CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NE ACROSS THE REGION FROM 09Z-21Z MONDAY, AND NUDGING OFF
THE COAST THEREAFTER. HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO SEE SOME DEGRADED
CONDITIONS WITH MVFR CIGS. MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS
(CIGS AND VSBY) ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS AND DEGRADED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS (PRIMARILY MVFR) MOVE TOWARD THE COAST LATER
THIS MORNING AND LINGER INTO EARLY AFTN. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
AND WHICH MAY REDUCE VSBYS. EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. THE
WIND WILL GENERALLY BE E TO SE AHEAD OF THE LOW, AND SHIFTS TO
SW AS THE LOW DEPARTS, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE COAST.
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE, ALONG
WITH SOME EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG/STRATUS.
MARINE
AS OF 215 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 1 AM
TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ELEVATED SEAS.
- THE SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND
CURRITUCK SOUND. AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER JAMES
RIVER UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY-FRIDAY WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
- A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY
AND TUESDAY.
EARLY MORNING WX ANALYSIS SHOWS TD CHANTAL LIFTING NNE NEAR THE VA-
NC BORDER (WELL INLAND). WINDS ARE SE AT 10-20 KT ON THE WATERS,
WITH ~4 FT SEAS AND 2-3 FT WAVES. THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL SLOWLY
TRACK TO THE NE TODAY (AND INTO THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE BY LATE
AFTN). THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH TODAY
AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT (HIGHEST ON THE OCEAN...BUT FREQUENT 20 KT
GUSTS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER BAY/LOWER JAMES DURING THE DAY). IN
ADDITION, SEAS BUILD TO 4-5 FT (PERHAPS 6 FT 20 NM OFFSHORE OF OCEAN
CITY, MD). THEREFORE, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCAS FOR THE OCEAN UNTIL 7
PM-1 AM, AND LOWER BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND UNTIL 4 PM. HAVE ALSO ISSUED
AN SCA FOR THE LOWER JAMES UNTIL 4 PM. WINDS ARE FORECAST DIMINISH
TONIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY EXITS. HOWEVER, 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH PART OF TONIGHT
(THAT IS WHY THE SCAS WERE EXTENDED UNTIL 1 AM FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES). VARIABLE, BUT PREVAILING SUB-SCA, MARINE
CONDITIONS RETURN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES AND MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ACROSS ALL
BEACHES TODAY AND TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO ~3 FT NEARSHORE WAVES AND
HIGH PERIOD SWELL WITH PERIODS UP TO 15 SECONDS POSSIBLE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
FOR VAZ075>078-085-521-522.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ060-065-066.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ061-062-
067>069-079-080-513>515.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ632>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ656-
658.
SYNOPSIS...HET/MAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/HET
SHORT TERM...AC/HET
LONG TERM...AC/HET
AVIATION...AJZ/AC
MARINE...ERI/MAM
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