619  
FXUS61 KAKQ 072330  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
730 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF CHANTAL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA  
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPERING OFF THIS  
EVENING OVER COASTAL VA AND MARYLAND. BEHIND THE STORM, MILD,  
MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A  
RATHER STAGNANT, UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES HOLD FOR THE REST OF  
THE WEEK, WITH MAINLY HIT OR MISS TYPE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 320 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
CANCELLED VA PORTION OF FLOOD WATCH. WILL LIKELY ALLOW MD  
PORTION TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 5PM EDT PER LATEST TRENDS.  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- REMNANTS OF TD CHANTAL BROUGHT POCKETS OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY  
RAINFALL TO THE AREA. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE  
NORTHERN NECK AND PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE THROUGH  
LATE AFTERNOON.  
 
- DRYING OUT, WITH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.  
 
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES REMNANT LOW PRESSURE FROM POST-  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL ORIENTED OVER THE UPPER EASTERN  
SHORE OF THE DELMARVA. SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED LARGELY AS  
EXPECTED ALONG THE SFC TROUGH, WITH THE REMNANTS BECOMING MORE  
ELONGATED AND FRONTAL IN NATURE, TYPICAL FOR A POST-TROPICAL  
EVOLUTION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
NECK AND LOWER EASTERN SHORE, WITH MORE GENERAL ISOLATED TO  
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF  
I-95 THIS AFTERNOON, MANLY OVER VA AND LOWER MD. THE REMNANT LOW  
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLIP NNE, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH IT. MESO ANALYSIS CONTINUING TO  
SHOW POCKETS OF 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE WITH PW BETWEEN 2.2-2.5"  
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA, FURTHER AIDING IN  
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL  
LOOKS TO SHIFT FROM THE COASTAL NORTHERN NECK OVER TO THE BAY  
SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE THROUGH 00Z OR SO, WHICH CONTINUES  
TO BE WELL SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z HREF, WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTING  
DORCHESTER AND WICOMICO COUNTIES IN A 3-HR PMM QPF WITH 30-50%  
PROBS FOR 3" IN THAT TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH AS  
IS FOR A BIT LONGER, WITH THE IDEA THAT VA COUNTIES MAY BE ABLE  
TO BE CLEARED FLOOD WATCH BEFORE THE 21Z END TIME. MD COUNTIES  
LIKELY CAN ALSO BE CLEARED OUT ON TIME GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY  
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SHOWERS. FARTHER SSW, ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND STORMS DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE  
DAY, WITH FAR WESTERN SECTIONS LIKELY NOT TO SEE MUCH MORE IN  
THE WAY OF SHOWERS.  
 
DECREASING CLOUDS, WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE  
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 250 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK,  
THEN STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS  
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS TOMORROW AND THROUGH LATE  
WEEK.  
 
- A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS NOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF  
THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA, INCLUDING CENTRAL AND EASTERN  
VA, RICHMOND METRO AND THE BAY SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE.  
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF  
THE AREA.  
 
- A SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO IN PLACE FOR THE  
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FARTHER SSE.  
 
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR  
TUESDAY.  
 
MORE TYPICAL JULY WEATHER IS ON THE WAY FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD,  
WITH THE HOT AND MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS RETURNING, ALONG WITH  
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES TOMORROW, SHUNTING A WEAKENING SFC FRONT TOWARD THE  
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,  
THE BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BECOME STALLED JUST NNW OF THE FA  
TOMORROW EVENING, WITH THAT FRONT THEN MEANDERING IN PLACE FOR  
THE REST OF THE WEEK.  
 
HEAT HEADLINES: HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 90S,  
WHICH IN TANDEM WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S BRING HEAT  
INDICES APPROACHING 105 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (PRIMARILY ALONG  
AND E OF I-95). FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS, WE EXPECT LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH  
HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE NW BY EVENING, SHIFTING OVER TO THE  
EASTERN SHORE LATER IN THE EVENING. THAT SAID, LATE TIMING  
ALLOWS A FULL TO NEARLY FULL HEATING DAY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH  
MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE AREA REACHING 103-108 DEG HEAT INDICES,  
NOT UNUSUAL FOR EARLY JULY, BUT NONETHELESS WITHIN HEAT ADVISORY  
CRITERIA. FOR THAT REASON, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR  
MOST OF THE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW THAT MAY MIX  
A LITTLE BIT BETTER AND COULD SEE MID AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  
 
SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT: TO THAT END, SPC HAS UPGRADED MUCH OF  
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA (EXCEPT COASTAL MD/VA EASTERN  
SHORE E OF US-13) TO A CONVECTIVE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE, WITH A  
MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, WITH DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE THE  
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS RATHER WEEK AND STORMS WILL BE RELYING ON LARGE  
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY AND WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. A SLIGHTPTC  
RISK ERO WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE  
AREA NEARER TO THE STALLING FRONT, WITH A MARGINAL RISK ERO  
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND SE VA/NE NC. AGAIN WITH SLOW STEERING  
FLOW, INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING REMAIN A CONCERN. WILL NOT  
EXTEND OR RE-ISSUE FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME FOR TOMORROW OR  
WEDNESDAY, BUT ADDITIONAL TARGETED FLOOD HEADLINES MAY WELL BE  
NECESSARY TOMORROW AND AS THE WEEK WEARS ON GIVEN THE RATHER  
STAGNANT/PERSISTENT WARM/MUGGY SETUP, WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF  
SCT CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY.  
 
WEDNESDAY: WEDNESDAY LOOKS LARGELY THE SAME, EXCEPT A COUPLE OF  
DEGREES COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S DUE TO EARLIER AND  
MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE, WITH THE STALLED FRONT AGAIN  
SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.  
ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK NORTH/MARGINAL SOUTH FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON  
WEDNESDAY, WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK AREA WIDE. HEAVY RAIN  
AND ISOLATED FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS  
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 250 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- STAYING SEASONABLY VERY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WEEK WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES PERSISTING.  
 
THE TYPICALLY WARM AND UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES TO END THE  
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE AROUND NORMS  
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR I.E. UPPER 80S/AROUND 90. WE WILL CONTINUE  
TO SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH SUN.  
THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE DAY OF THE PERIOD AS  
OF NOW OWING TO POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR  
THE FA/ALONG THE FRONT. WILL SAY THAT EXACT DETAILS ARE  
DIFFICULT TO LATCH ON TO AT THIS POINT SINCE A LOT OF IT WILL  
BE CONDITIONAL UPON WHERE THE MEANDERING FRONT GOES AND WHEN,  
PLUS THE WEAKER FLOW ALOFT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 725 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
THERE ARE A FEW REMAINING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING,  
BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES.  
OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND  
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG  
LATE TONIGHT AT SBY/PHF, THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO  
HOLD OUT OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST FOR NOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY  
EVENING, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF  
THE AREA. INTRODUCED A PROB30 AT RIC AND SBY LATE IN THE PERIOD  
DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, ACTIVITY LIKELY STAYS MORE  
ISOLATED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.  
 
OUTLOOK: A TYPICAL VERY WARM AND HUMID MIDWEEK PERIOD ACROSS  
AREA TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY. LATE DAY AND EVENING SCATTERED  
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY, ALONG WITH SOME EARLY MORNING GROUND  
FOG/STRATUS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SCAS CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 1 AM TONIGHT  
TO ACCOUNT FOR ELEVATED SEAS.  
 
- THE SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING FOR LOWER  
CHESAPEAKE BAY.  
 
- A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY  
AND TUESDAY.  
 
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY-FRIDAY WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES.  
 
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SO THE CENTER OF  
POST TROPICAL CYCLONE CHANTAL LOCATED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.  
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE STARTING TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NW ACROSS THE  
BAY BEHIND PTC CHANTAL. WINDS STILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT WITH  
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20. SOME ELEVATED SITES ARE REPORTING SLIGHTLY  
HIGHER WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. WINDS ACROSS THE OCEAN ARE THE SAME  
SPEED AT THE BAY HOWEVER, THEY REMAIN OUT OF THE S TO SW AHEAD OF  
PTC CHANTAL. WAVES THIS AFTERNOON ARE BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE  
BAY AND 4 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE OCEAN. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING, WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BELOW SCA FOR  
THE BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THE SCA IS ALLOWED TO  
DROP FOR THE LOWER JAMES AND CURRITUCK SOUND AT 4PM. HOWEVER, THE  
SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MOUTH AND LOWER BAY. THIS IS DUE TO A  
SECONDARY SURGE OF SCA WINDS BEHIND PTC CHANTAL AS SHE EXITS THE  
AREA. WILL NOTE, THERE WILL BE A DULL PERIOD BETWEEN 0-6Z FOR SMALL  
CRAFTS. DURING THIS DULL PERIOD WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE SW  
BETWEEN 10 TO 15KT ACROSS ALL WATERS. THEN BETWEEN 6 TO 12Z TUESDAY  
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15KT SUSTAINED ACROSS THE MOUTH AND LOWER BAY  
AND OCEANS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KT. FOR THE OCEANS, THE SCA FOR  
THE FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO DROP ~7PM AND SEAS WILL  
DIMINISH BELOW 5FT. WHILE FROM THE VA/NC BOARDER UP TO OCEAN CITY  
THOSE SCA WILL DROP ~1AM TUESDAY AS 5FT SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH.  
 
FOR TOMORROW, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE S-SW BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT  
ACROSS THE BAY AND 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE OCEAN. THE DAILY CHANCES  
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO INCREASE FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  
THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY BRING GUSTY WIND THAT COULD  
BRING ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE STRONGER  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HANDLED WITH SMWS.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ACROSS ALL  
BEACHES TUESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO ~3 FT NEARSHORE WAVES.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>024.  
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ012>017-  
030>032.  
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ062-  
064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-511>525.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-634.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-  
656.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MAM  
NEAR TERM...MAM  
SHORT TERM...AC/MAM  
LONG TERM...AC/MAM  
AVIATION...AJB/MAM  
MARINE...ERI/HET  
 
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