696  
FXUS61 KAKQ 081746  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
146 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH HEAT  
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN  
IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH SCATTERED TO  
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 1020 AM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES OF 103-109F. A  
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA.  
 
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS  
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64.  
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. IN  
ADDITION, THERE IS A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN/FLASH  
FLOODING.  
 
- ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NE NC.  
 
EARLY MORNING WX ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE OFF THE SE CONUS  
COAST, WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE FLOW ALOFT IS  
GENERALLY W-E BUT THE STRONGER FLOW IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE  
LOCAL AREA. A COLD FRONT IS WELL TO OUR NW AND IS SLOWLY APPROACHING  
(BUT THIS FEATURE WON'T GET NEAR OUR AREA). WARM AND HUMID  
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH MID 70S-LOWER 80S ALONG WITH MID-UPPER 70S  
DEW POINTS. HOT AND HUMID WX WILL IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH MODEST LOW-  
LEVEL SSW FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE MID TO LOCALLY UPPER  
90S DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE DEW POINTS WILL FALL A COUPLE  
DEGREES DURING THE DAY, WIDESPREAD 103-109F HEAT INDICES ARE  
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN (BEFORE ANY CONVECTION FORMS), AND HAVE  
EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT WESTERN  
LOUISA, FLUVANNA, AND THE MD/NE NC BEACHES.  
 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP TO OUR W/NW  
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTN AHEAD OF THE ABOVE  
MENTIONED COLD FRONT. THEN, THE STORMS LIKELY ENTER N/NW PORTIONS OF  
THE AREA BY 4-5 PM. SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY  
BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT AS THEY PUSH TO THE SE THROUGH AT LEAST THE  
NW HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE  
MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR STORMS IS FROM 4-8 PM FROM LOUISA-SALISBURY,  
AND 7-11 PM FROM THE RICHMOND METRO TO THE VA PENINSULAS/EASTERN  
SHORE. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY WED  
AM FARTHER SOUTH, BUT EXPECTING MUCH LESS IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE  
SOUTH OF A FARMVILLE-WAKEFIELD-HAMPTON LINE. DESPITE WEAK EFFECTIVE  
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 KNOTS, THE HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL  
ALLOW FOR AMPLE INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH THE MID-LEVELS WON'T BE  
PARTICULARLY DRY, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL (DCAPE  
900-1200 J/KG) FOR THE STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND  
GUSTS (THANKS TO STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES AND THE VERY STRONG SFC  
HEATING). NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF HAIL WITH THESE  
STORMS. SPC HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL  
2/5) FOR SEVERE WX ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA, WITH A  
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.  
 
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, THE STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN  
PRODUCERS GIVEN DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND RESULTANT PWS AROUND  
2.0". WHILE MOST AREAS HAVEN'T SEEN A LOT OF RAIN IN THE PAST 5-6  
DAYS AND THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING (ALBEIT SLOWLY)...A QUICK 2-3" IS  
LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS AND THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE URBAN/FLASH  
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN METRO/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WPC HAS  
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE RIC METRO  
NORTHWARD, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FARTHER SE. WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD  
WATCHES AT THIS TIME, BUT A TARGETED SHORT-FUSED WATCH MAY BE NEEDED  
LATER TODAY. THE HREF HAS A BROAD 10% PROBABILITY OF 3" OF RAIN IN 3  
HRS THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WARM AND HUMID  
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. WHILE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AFTER 12-  
2 AM, THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHC FOR TSTMS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH  
LATE TONIGHT.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON  
THROUGH LATE EVENING ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH  
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE  
AREA.  
 
- ALTHOUGH THERE IS A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT BOTH DAYS, THE MAIN CONCERN  
WITH THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING, GIVEN THAT SOME  
AREAS COULD SEE 1-2+" OF RAIN ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS.  
 
MORE TYPICAL JULY WEATHER (IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES) IS EXPECTED ON  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT AND THE UPPER  
TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS EAST TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. UPPER  
HEIGHTS WILL FALL SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AS A COUPLE OF  
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACK NEAR/OVER THE FA ON THE SOUTHERN  
PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. HEAT INDICES COULD STILL BE ABOVE 100F ON  
WED W/ HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER WX EXPECTED ON  
THU. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NUMEROUS  
AFTN-LATE EVENING TSTMS EACH DAY, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER  
DISTURBANCES SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. UNLIKE TODAY,  
TSTM COVERAGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA  
(INCLUDING SRN VA/NE NC) ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT  
WILL BE A BIT STRONGER (ESPECIALLY N) ON WED/THU, BUT THERE WILL BE  
SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE WAY SFC HEATING THAN WHAT WE'LL SEE TODAY.  
NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT (MAINLY FOR DAMAGING  
TO PERHAPS SEVERE WIND GUSTS) ON BOTH DAYS. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL  
LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THAT PWS WILL  
REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE 2.0" THROUGH AT LEAST THU AND STORM COVERAGE  
WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ON BOTH DAYS (POPS ARE 70-80+% FROM 2-8 PM ON  
WED/THU...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY). ALSO,  
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING LOCALIZED 2" RAIN AMOUNTS IN 30-45 MINUTES. THERE IS  
CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE  
INCHES OF RAIN ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY FOR FLOOD  
WATCHES, TARGETED WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED ON ONE OR BOTH DAYS  
DEPENDING ON TRENDS AND HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TODAY/WED. TIMING OF  
STORMS WILL BE FROM MID AFTN THROUGH LATE EVENING, AS IS TYPICAL  
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- STAYING SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH  
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES PERSISTING.  
 
THE WARM, HUMID, AND UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES TO END THE WEEK AND  
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGING WELL TO OUR SE AND FAST ZONAL  
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NRN CONUS/SRN CANADA. UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL  
CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  
AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH SUN, ALTHOUGH STORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO  
BE LESS THIS WEEKEND THAN IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON FRIDAY. WHILE  
EXACT DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT, THE MAIN  
CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING  
GIVEN THE RAIN EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND CONTINUED  
WEAK FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR  
THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F).  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
AS OF 145 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
MAINLY DRY AND VFR AS OF 18Z ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. CU IS SLOWLY  
DEVELOPING WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUD  
BASES SHOULD HOVER AROUND 3-5K FT. SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOP NW  
OF THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT BEFORE  
PUSHING TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW  
ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES CLOSER  
TO THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, TSTMS WILL LIKELY  
MAKE IT RIC/SBY LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT, PERHAPS INCHING  
FURTHER SOUTHWARD TOWARD PHF/ORF NEAR 06Z. THE SEVERE WX THREAT  
WOULD BE MUCH LOWER AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER. THE MOST LIKELY TIME  
FOR CONVECTION AT THE TERMINALS IS 22-04Z. HAVE ADJUSTED  
EARLIER PROB30 GROUPS AT RIC AND SBY TO TEMPO GROUPS GIVEN  
ANTICIPATED HIGHER COVERAGE/DURATION, WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT ORF  
AND ECG FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING BRIEF LIFR VSBYS IN +RA ALONG WITH VARIABLE GUSTY  
WINDS OF 30+ KNOTS. DRY/VFR AFTER 08Z WED WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF  
A SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE COAST. LASTLY, GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT  
SOME PATCHY FOG AND MVFR CIGS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE  
OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT, PERHAPS  
INCHING CLOSE TO RIC.  
 
OUTLOOK: MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF STORMS FROM WED-FRI. SCATTERED  
TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON-LATE EVENING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY,  
ALONG WITH SOME EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG/STRATUS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
AS OF 300 AM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- MARGINAL SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY.  
 
- MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL BEACHES TODAY.  
 
THE REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH FROM CHANTAL IS NOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH  
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC. WINDS LOCALLY ARE FROM THE S  
OR SSW 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS 18-20 KT. WAVES ARE 1-2 FT IN THE  
CHES BAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT OFFSHORE.  
 
SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAY BUT LATEST  
GUIDANCE AND LOCAL WIND PROBS SHOW LITTLE SUPPORT FOR 20-25 KT GUSTS  
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MAY CANCEL THE SCA HEADLINES AT 4AM IF  
THESE TRENDS CONTINUE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE  
NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO TIGHTENS MODESTLY DURING THIS TIME WITH SW  
WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY/RIVERS AND 15-20 KT OFFSHORE  
THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL WELL INLAND TONIGHT  
INTO WEDNESDAY (AND BEYOND) WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND  
STORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG  
TO SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/WAVES/SEAS IN AND AROUND  
CONVECTION. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT IN THE STRONGER SW FLOW THIS  
EVENING WITH SEAS 3-4 FT. MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES.  
 
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY. LOW  
RIP RISK IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>024.  
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-  
030>032.  
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ060>062-  
064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-510>525.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...ERI  
NEAR TERM...ERI/HET  
SHORT TERM...ERI  
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM  
AVIATION...ERI/SW  
MARINE...RHR  
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