020  
FXUS61 KAKQ 082336  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
736 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS  
EVENING, WITH HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  
THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FLASH  
FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE  
UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING  
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED  
LATER THIS WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/  
 
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS BEEN ISSUED TILL 9PM THIS EVENING FOR MOST  
OF THE AREA.  
 
- FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN NECK AND MD EASTERN  
SHORE FOR THE INCREASED RISK OF POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.  
 
- HEAT ADVISORY STAYS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING.  
 
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE LOCATED OFF THE E  
COAST, WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN  
TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE 500MB FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK OUT  
OF THE WSW ~20-25KT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW MOVING  
COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN NY STRETCHING DOWN ACROSS PA AND  
DOWN THE APPALACHIANS MOUNTAINS. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT A HOT AND  
HUMID AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3PM ARE IN THE  
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. THIS IS  
CAUSING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO CLIMB BETWEEN 105 TO 109 ACROSS THE  
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT  
UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING FOR ALL EXCEPT EXCEPT WESTERN LOUISA,  
FLUVANNA, AND THE MD/NE NC BEACHES. FOR TONIGHT, LOW  
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND  
UPPER 70S ALONG THE SE COAST.  
 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED  
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN AND POSSIBLE WARM SECTOR. AS OF  
3PM SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALREADY SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING  
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND PIEDMONT. AHEAD  
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS, A RICH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN  
PLACE. LATEST MESO ANALYSIS IS SHOWING ML CAPE VALUES ~2000 J/KG  
ACROSS THE NORTH AND 2500-3500 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION TO  
THE ML CAPE, DCAPE VALUES ARE ~1100 J/KG THANKS TO THE STRONG LOW  
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DESPITE THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE SHEAR  
STILL REMAINS WEAK. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR REMAINS BETWEEN 20 TO 25  
KT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE NORTH (CLOSER TO THE  
FRONT). HOWEVER, THESE VALUES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO HELP PRODUCE  
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS EVENING IS WIND  
GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 70MPH. THE HAIL THREAT REMAINS LOW DUE TO THE  
LACK OF SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE TIMING OF THESE STORMS  
HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE. STORMS LIKELY  
ENTER N/NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 4-5 PM. SCATTERED TO PERHAPS  
NUMEROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT AS THEY PUSH TO  
THE SE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NW HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE GRADUALLY  
WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR STORMS IS FROM  
4-8 PM FROM LOUISA-SALISBURY, AND 7-11 PM FROM THE RICHMOND METRO TO  
THE VA PENINSULAS/EASTERN SHORE.  
 
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT, THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS GIVEN DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND RESULTANT  
PWS ~2". WHILE MOST AREAS HAVEN'T SEEN A LOT OF RAIN IN THE PAST 5-6  
DAYS AND THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING (ALBEIT SLOWLY)...A QUICK 2-4" IS  
LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS AND THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE URBAN/FLASH  
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN METRO/POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WPC HAS EXTENDED  
THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR ALL OF VA/MD, WITH A  
MARGINAL RISK FOR NC. THE 12Z HREF CONTINUES TO TARGET BROAD 10%  
PROBABILITY OF 3" OF RAIN IN 3 HRS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
NECK AND MD EASTERN SHORE. GIVEN THESE AREAS SAW RAIN FROM THE  
REMNANTS FROM CHANTAL AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE  
AREA A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. WILL NOTE, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF  
PERIOD WHERE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STOP BUT DUE TO THE  
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING TOMORROWS THE FLOOD  
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6Z THURSDAY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH  
LATE EVENING ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH COVERAGE  
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  
 
- ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT BOTH DAYS, THE MAIN CONCERN WITH  
THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING, GIVEN THAT SOME AREAS COULD  
SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-3+" OF RAIN ON CONSECUTIVE DAYS.  
 
TYPICAL JULY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY  
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE  
MIDDLE 70S BUT GIVEN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN TUESDAY WE  
WILL BE BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN  
100 AND 104 WEDNESDAY AND MIDDLE 90S THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR  
BOTH THESE DAYS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING.  
ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER AIR  
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE WSW, HOWEVER, IT WILL BE  
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH WINDS ~25 KT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND 30 TO 35 KT  
ACROSS THE NORTH. INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE AROUND THE SAME AS  
TUESDAY WITH ML CAPE VALUES ~3000. DCAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 750-  
1000 J/KG. THEY ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER DUE TO THE WEAKER LOW LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE ~25 KT JUST SUITABLE  
ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODEL  
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THESE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE  
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THE SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A  
SLIGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST OF I-95.  
WHILE KEEPING A MARGINAL FOR THE SOUTHEAST. THE RISK FOR SEVERE  
STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS INSTABILITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE  
TO BE HIGH AND ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  
 
THE BIGGEST AND MOST CONCERNING THREAT FOR TOMORROW IS THE RISK FOR  
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW  
PWS CLIMBING UPWARDS OF 2-2.2". RECENT HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO  
SHOW ADDITIONAL RAIN TOTALS BETWEEN 1 TO 3" ACROSS ALREADY SATURATED  
AREAS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE AREAS COULD  
SEE HIGH AMOUNTS (4") DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AND MORE WIDE SPREAD  
CONVECTION. IF THE SAME AREAS THAT SEE HIGH RAIN FALL TOTALS ON  
TUESDAY SEE THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS, THIS COULD LEAD TO FASTER FLASH  
FLOODING. THE RECENT 12Z HREF HAS SHOWN A WIDE SPREAD 10%  
PROBABILITY OF 3" OF RAIN IN 3 HRS ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND  
WEST. IT ALSO HIGHLIGHTS A 30% PROBABILITY OF 3" OF RAIN IN 3 HRS  
ACROSS THE RIC METRO AREA NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND MD  
EASTERN SHORE. WITH ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS, MODEL GUIDANCE, AND  
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR I-95  
CORRIDOR AND NORTH. THIS COVERS THE PENINSULAS AND MD EASTERN  
SHORE. THE SE HAS BEEN LEFT OUT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY,  
BUT DEPENDING ON LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL DATA MAYBE ADDED IN THE  
FUTURE. THE RISK FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES THURSDAY AS  
THE DAILY RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN AN ALREADY SATURATED AND  
MOISTURE DRIVEN ENVIRONMENT.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- STAYING SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES PERSISTING.  
 
THE SEASONABLE YET UNSETTLED JULY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH  
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE  
SOUTHEAST AND DECENTLY FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. AN UPPER LEVEL  
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH WSW FLOW ALOFT. THIS  
WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE STORM COVERAGE  
WILL BE LESS THIS WEEKEND THAN IT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON FRIDAY. EXACT  
DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT, THE  
MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING  
GIVEN THE RAIN EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND CONTINUED WEAK  
FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS  
TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F).  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
AS OF 736 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING,  
THOUGH MOST OF IT HAS STEERED CLEAR OF THE TERMINALS SO FAR. THIS  
WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS BECOME  
MORE WIDESPREAD. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 AT ORF, AS CONFIDENCE IS A  
LITTLE LOW TO INCLUDE A TEMPO AT THIS TIME. TEMPOS ARE IN PLACE AT  
PHF, RIC, AND SBY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONVECTION THROUGH LATER THIS  
EVENING. THERE WILL BE A LULL OVERNIGHT IN STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THOUGH THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STORM  
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW, THE EXACT TIMING IS A LITTLE TOUGHER TO NAIL  
DOWN AT THIS TIME. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A PROB30 AT RIC FOR NOW, BUT  
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE INCLUDED AT ALL  
TERMINALS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING. OUTSIDE OF STORMS,  
WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5-10 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THOUGH A  
FEW GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TOMORROW  
AS DAYTIME HEATING RAMPS UP AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER MIXING.  
LASTLY, GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME PATCHY FOG AND MVFR CIGS  
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE  
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT, PERHAPS INCHING CLOSE TO RIC, SO HAVE  
DROPPED TO 5SM FOR A FEW HOURS.  
 
OUTLOOK: MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF STORMS FROM WED-FRI. SCATTERED  
TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON-LATE EVENING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY,  
ALONG WITH SOME EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG/STRATUS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
AS OF 355 PM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS  
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH  
IS IN EFFECT.  
 
- SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS  
EVENING WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE BAY AND 25 KT OVER THE  
OCEAN.  
 
- ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN ON WED  
AFTERNOON/EVENING, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WELL NORTHWEST  
OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. MEANWHILE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING  
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS INTO THIS EVENING.  
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT IN THE WINDS TONIGHT BUT THE  
CONSENSUS IS AROUND 15 KT OVER THE BAY AND 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE  
OCEAN. WILL NOT ISSUE A SCA BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE  
CHOPPY ESPECIALLY OVER THE BAY. WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT, BUT  
THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND  
STORMS IMPACT THE WATERS. AGAIN, SOME OF THESE COULD BE STRONG  
TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. BEYOND TOMORROW, EXPECT  
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER  
OF THE WEEK.  
 
SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER THE  
COASTAL WATERS, THEN SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING.  
SEAS THEN BUILDING AGAIN TO 3 TO LOCALLY 5 FEET BY WED EVENING AS  
THE SOUTH WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. SEAS THEN FALLING TO AROUND 2-3  
FEET BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVES OVER THE BAY 2 TO 3  
FEET TONIGHT THEN FALLING TO 1 TO 2 FT WED AM, BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN  
TO 2 TO 3 FT BY TOMORROW EVENING. WAVES MOSTLY 2 FEET OR LESS THU  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAIN IN EFFECT TODAY, WITH LOW  
RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED WED AND THU.  
 
 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>024.  
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.  
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-  
030>032.  
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ060>062-  
064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-510>525.  
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ064-075>078-  
084>086-517>522.  
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT FOR VAZ048-060>062-065>069-079>083-087>090-509>516-  
523.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...ERI/HET  
NEAR TERM...HET  
SHORT TERM...HET  
LONG TERM...ERI/HET  
AVIATION...SW/NB  
MARINE...RHR  
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