693  
FXUS61 KAKQ 091858  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
258 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH  
THURSDAY, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
OCCURING BOTH DAYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND I-95  
CORRIDOR.  
 
- ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING,  
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING,  
GIVEN THAT AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN 2-5" OF RAIN SINCE  
LAST NIGHT COULD SEE ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3-5"  
THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT  
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
- THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR STORMS IS 4-8 PM IN THE PIEDMONT,  
7-10 PM ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, AND AFTER 10 PM CLOSER TO  
THE PENINSULAS AND IN SE VA/NE NC.  
 
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING INTO  
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE RAIN THAT FELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND A  
SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT (WITH PWS ~ 2.0"), THERE IS CONCERN FOR  
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH-  
CENTRAL VA, THE VA NORTHERN NECK, AND MD EASTERN SHORE. TSTMS  
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST DURING THE  
NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTH-  
CENTRAL VA THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. THE STORMS MAY TRY TO  
DEVELOP INTO A BROKEN LINE AND WILL LIKELY CROSS THE PIEDMONT  
BETWEEN 4-8 PM BEFORE IMPACTING THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 7-10  
PM. THE STORMS WILL THEN SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE COAST AROUND OR  
AFTER 10 PM BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN (ALTHOUGH THEY WILL  
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THU AM BEFORE COMPLETELY  
DISSIPATING). ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SE VA AND  
NE NC THIS EVENING, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE THAT HIGH.  
 
SEVERE WX (MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS) IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS  
EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 WHERE  
STORMS WILL ARRIVE CLOSER TO PEAK HEATING. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL  
BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY (AROUND 25 KT NORTH/20 KT  
SOUTH). DESPITE SLIGHTLY LESS HEATING THAN YESTERDAY, THERE  
SHOULD BE ENOUGH DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS WITH DCAPE VALUES OF 750-1000 J/KG. SPC HAS MAINTAINED  
THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) WEST, WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK  
(LEVEL 1/5) EAST.  
 
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THE BIGGEST AND MOST CONCERNING THREAT THIS  
EVENING IS THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING. WITH PWS AS HIGH  
AS THEY WILL BE, THE TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2-3" OF RAIN  
IN AN HOUR OR LESS. LOCALLY, UP TO 5" FELL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT,  
CENTRAL VA, AND THE MD EASTERN SHORE. THESE ARE THE SAME AREAS  
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF TSTMS THIS  
EVENING WITH LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS OF 3-5" POSSIBLE IN SOME OF  
THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE 12Z HREF STILL HAS 30+% PROBS OF 3" OF  
RAIN IN 3 HOURS OVER THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE  
ABOVE, WPC HAS MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS OUR PIEDMONT/I-95 CORRIDOR COUNTIES,  
WHICH IS NOT PARTICULARLY COMMON FOR THE LOCAL AREA. A MARGINAL  
TO SLIGHT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK REMAINS IN PLACE FARTHER E/SE  
WHERE LESS RAIN FELL AND/OR IS EXPECTED. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH  
(IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT) FOR THE NW 2/3 OF THE AREA REMAINS  
THE SAME AND NO CHANGES AREA PLANNED THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER  
STORMS EXIT TONIGHT, LOWS FALL INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH  
LATE EVENING ON THURSDAY.  
 
-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY  
AS THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES.  
 
- THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ON THURSDAY, BUT COULD  
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING TO  
OUR EAST ON FRIDAY. NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE SHIFTING A BIT TO THE  
SOUTH. TEMPS ONLY WARM INTO THE MID 80S-90F...WHICH WILL LESSEN THE  
SEVERE THREAT (BUT SPC STILL HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS). GIVEN THAT PWS WILL STILL BE AROUND 2.0" ON THURSDAY (IN  
ADDITION TO THE RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY AND IS EXPECTED TODAY), WPC  
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  
WE FINALLY START TO SEE SOME UPPER HEIGHT RISES ON FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY, BUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY  
(ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY).  
ADDITIONALLY, THE SWATH OF 2.0"+ PWS WILL BE SHUNTED TO OUR SE BY  
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. SO WHILE THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY OF  
FLOODING, IT WON'T BE AS HIGH (OR WIDESPREAD) AS WHAT IS  
EXPECTED TODAY/THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL  
AVERAGES ON FRI/SAT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- STAYING SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH  
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES PERSISTING.  
 
A MORE SEASONABLE (BUT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED) JULY WEATHER PATTERN IS  
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE  
WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK TOWARD THE AREA, WITH DECENTLY FAST ZONAL  
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN  
CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL DIURNAL SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM SUN-TUE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE STORM  
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED. EXACT DETAILS ARE  
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT, BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY  
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE RAIN  
EXPECTED FROM TODAY-SATURDAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL  
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F).  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 145 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
MAINLY VFR THROUGH UNTIL LATE AFTN/EVENING, THOUGH PERIODIC DIPS  
TO MVFR WITH AFTERNOON CU WILL BE POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL  
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING  
ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING (GENERALLY BETWEEN  
21-04Z). HAVE PROB30 GROUPS AT RIC/SBY/PHF, BUT DID NOT AT  
ORF/ECG WHERE CONFIDENCE IN TSTMS IS LOWER. ANY STORM WILL BE  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF LIFR VSBYS IN +RA, AS WELL AS  
VARIABLE WIND GUSTS OF 25-30+ KNOTS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS  
WILL BE SW AT ~10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 15-20 KT.  
 
OUTLOOK: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON-LATE EVENING TSTMS ARE  
EXPECTED ON BOTH THU AND FRI, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR  
EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG/STRATUS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE KEEPS  
SSW WINDS.  
 
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STRONG STORMS IS LIKELY LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND A SURFACE TROUGH INLAND IS RESULTING  
IN SSW WINDS 10-15 KT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE GRADIENT TIGHTEN UPS A BIT  
THIS EVENING AS THE INLAND/LEE TROUGH SHARPENS LATE TONIGHT. A BRIEF  
PERIOD OF SCA WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUTH OF THE CHES. BAY LATE  
TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON REACHING THE  
THRESHOLD, AS LOCAL WIND PROBS CONTINUE TO KEEP 30-40% CHANCE OF  
SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION, CAMS SHOW THE  
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION, WHICH  
WOULD BE HANDLED WITH SMWS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A  
CONCERN AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER FLOW  
ALOFT THAN WAS PRESENT YESTERDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING  
ARE THE MAIN MARINE THREATS FROM STORMS THIS EVENING. BEYOND  
TONIGHT, THE SUB-SCA SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AND FRIDAY  
WITH WINDS BECOMING 5-10 KT BY FRIDAY MORNING, BUT AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING CONVECTION CONTINUES.  
 
THERE IS A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL BEACHES TODAY AND  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>025.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-  
075>090-509>523.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JDM  
NEAR TERM...ERI/JDM  
SHORT TERM...ERI/JDM  
LONG TERM...ERI/JDM  
AVIATION...ERI/JKP  
MARINE...KMC/RHR  
 
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