773  
FXUS61 KAKQ 100634  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
234 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH  
THURSDAY, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
OCCURING BOTH DAYS. THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
AS OF 820 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH  
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE  
THROUGH MIDNIGHT, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST  
NORTH CAROLINA.  
 
-THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE STORMS MOVE  
EAST LATE THIS EVENING.  
 
-LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  
 
SVR WATCHES 497 AND 499 WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 10PM-  
MIDNIGHT, RESPECTIVELY, TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LINE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST VA AND  
LOWER MD. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG WINDS AND ALSO LOCALIZED  
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AS THIS ACTIVITY PUSHES  
EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT/EARLY THURS AM. AFTER STORMS EXIT, LOW  
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH  
LATE EVENING ON THURSDAY.  
 
-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY  
AS THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES.  
 
- THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ON THURSDAY, BUT COULD  
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING  
TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY. NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE SHIFTING A  
BIT TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS ONLY WARM INTO THE MID 80S-90F...WHICH  
WILL LESSEN THE SEVERE THREAT (BUT SPC STILL HAS A MARGINAL RISK  
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS). GIVEN THAT PWS WILL STILL BE AROUND  
2.0" ON THURSDAY (IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY  
AND IS EXPECTED TODAY), WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WE FINALLY START TO SEE SOME  
UPPER HEIGHT RISES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT DIURNALLY DRIVEN  
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY (ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS  
THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY). ADDITIONALLY, THE SWATH OF  
2.0"+ PWS WILL BE SHUNTED TO OUR SE BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. SO WHILE  
THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING, IT WON'T BE AS  
HIGH (OR WIDESPREAD) AS WHAT IS EXPECTED TODAY/THU. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES ON FRI/SAT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 255 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- STAYING SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH  
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES PERSISTING.  
 
A MORE SEASONABLE (BUT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED) JULY WEATHER PATTERN IS  
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE  
WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK TOWARD THE AREA, WITH DECENTLY FAST ZONAL  
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN  
CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL DIURNAL SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM SUN-TUE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE STORM  
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED. EXACT DETAILS ARE  
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT, BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY  
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE RAIN  
EXPECTED FROM TODAY-SATURDAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL  
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F).  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 135 AM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED AND SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR THE TERMINALS  
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS, WITH DRY WX EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM 09-16Z. THE MAIN  
FLIGHT CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR  
CIGS FROM NOW-15Z (LOWEST AT KRIC/KSBY). CIGS BECOME BKN  
BETWEEN 3000-5000 FT LATER TODAY. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE  
AS EARLY AS 17-19Z AT SBY/ORF/PHF...WITH STORMS POSSIBLE LATER  
THIS AFTN/THIS EVENING AT RIC/ECG. THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION  
WON'T BE AS HIGH TODAY AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST TWO DAYS, BUT ANY  
STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF LIFR VSBYS AND GUSTY  
WINDS TO 25-30 KT. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 04-05Z. FOR NOW,  
HAVE VCSH IN THE TAFS AND MAY ADD PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS WITH THE  
12Z TAF ISSUANCE.  
 
OUTLOOK: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON-LATE EVENING TSTMS ARE  
EXPECTED FROM FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL  
FOR EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG/STRATUS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF LOCAL  
INFLUENCES FROM AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.  
 
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS ARE GENERALLY W OR SW 10-15 KT WITH A FEW  
GUST TO 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING. WAVES ARE 1-2 FT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT  
(HIGHEST N).  
 
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS  
THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER INLAND AREAS  
AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. WINDS TODAY WILL  
STAY MOSTLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE, BECOMING MORE S OR SE INTO  
THIS AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE FORCING MAY ALLOW AREAS NEAR SHORE TO  
GO MORE EASTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER  
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING, PERHAPS FARTHER SOUTH AND A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS  
DAYS. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE SPARSE  
TODAY BUT LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS/WAVES AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING  
CAN BE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT FORM THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY  
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA WINDS AND DAILY SHOWER/STORM  
CHANCES. LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR  
FRONT TO IMPACT THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH FLOW  
BECOMING NE OR E BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BEFORE S FLOW RESUMES INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT  
WITH SEAS 2-3 FT INTO THIS WEEKEND.  
 
THERE IS A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY.  
SOUTHEAST SWELL ENERGY DOES INCREASE A BIT ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY  
FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES, BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LOW RIP RISK FOR  
NOW. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPWELLING ALONG THE  
NORTHERN NC OBX THAT HAS RESULTED IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WATER  
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY  
TO PERSIST WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW OVER THE COMING DAYS.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.  
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ012.  
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-  
075>090-092-509>523.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JDM  
NEAR TERM...JDM  
SHORT TERM...ERI/JDM  
LONG TERM...ERI/JDM  
AVIATION...ERI  
MARINE...RHR  
 
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