954  
FXUS61 KAKQ 101452  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
1052 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.  
THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 1050 AM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. THERE IS A LOW-END THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  
 
- WHILE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS TODAY THAN IT WAS  
YESTERDAY, A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-3" OF RAIN,  
WHICH WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.  
 
- HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT GIVEN THE WET  
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.  
 
MORNING WX ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE  
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS, WITH STRONG  
RIDGING IN THE SW CONUS AND OFF THE SE CONUS COAST. THERE IS NOT  
MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE PATTERN, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WEAK  
SFC TROUGH ACROSS WRN VA/NC. A WEAK BOUNDARY LINGERS AROUND NE  
NC/VA BORDER, WHICH WILL LIKELY HELP INITIATE CONVECTION LATER  
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE AREA THIS  
MORNING WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE PENINSULA AND  
CHES. BAY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA  
TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS  
CROSSING THE AREA, THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH IN THE WAY OF  
HEIGHT FALLS/LIFT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. HOWEVER, COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN IT HAS BEEN THE  
PAST TWO DAYS. IN FACT, MOST AREAS COULD VERY WELL STAY DRY.  
THERE IS ALSO A LOWER SEVERE WX THREAT (HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE  
MID/UPPER 80S WITH ~1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE/MINIMAL SHEAR). SPC  
STILL HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS  
(LIKELY SUB-SEVERE BUT ABLE TO CAUSE TREE DAMAGE).  
 
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY-MID AFTN ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES NEAR  
THE COAST (AND ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE CWA). IT MAY  
TAKE AWHILE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO INLAND PORTIONS OF THE  
AREA GIVEN THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED IN THE  
WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S STORMS. HOWEVER, EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 4-10 PM. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IS  
EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE COAST TO INLAND PORTIONS OF SRN VA AND NE  
NC THIS EVENING. TSTMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. THE FLOW  
ALOFT IS WEAKER (ONLY 15-20 KT AT 500MB) TODAY, SO STORMS WILL BE  
VERY SLOW MOVING AND EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS GIVEN THE PWS AROUND  
2.0". SO, A FEW AREAS COULD SEE 2-3" OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME. THIS  
WOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE WET  
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. BUT GIVEN THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH  
LOWER TODAY, LESS INSTANCES OF FLOODING ARE EXPECTED (ALTHOUGH CAN'T  
COMPLETELY RULE OUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING  
GIVEN THE SLOWER EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS TODAY). THEREFORE, HAVE  
OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 06Z/2 AM TONIGHT GIVEN THE 2-  
6" OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE NW 2/3 OF THE FA DURING THE  
PAST 36-48 HOURS. WILL NOT EXPAND THE WATCH TO INCLUDE NORFOLK/VA  
BEACH OR MOST OF NE NC GIVEN THAT THESE AREAS DID NOT SEE MUCH OF  
ANY RAIN THE PAST 2 DAYS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED FROM  
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES.  
 
- A THREAT FOR HIGHLY LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY. AS A  
RESULT, WE FINALLY START TO SEE SOME UPPER HEIGHT RISES (WHICH  
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, DIURNALLY DRIVEN TSTMS  
WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY-SUNDAY AS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL  
STILL BE UNCAPPED. HOWEVER, STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN WHAT IS  
EXPECTED TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE SWATH OF 2.0"+ PWS WILL BE SHUNTED  
TO OUR SE. SO WHILE THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING, IT  
WON'T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. BUT, WITH VERY WEAK  
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS COULD  
SEE 1-3" OF RAIN EACH DAY (WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING). IN  
ADDITION, THERE IS A LOW-END THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (MAINLY  
DUE TO LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS) EACH DAY A FEW HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF  
PEAK HEATING, AS IS FAIRLY TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 240 AM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- STAYING SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID FROM EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WITH  
MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES PERSISTING.  
 
A MORE SEASONABLE (BUT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED) JULY WEATHER PATTERN IS  
EXPECTED FROM THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE  
WILL TRY TO BUILD BACK TOWARD THE AREA, WITH DECENTLY FAST ZONAL  
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN  
CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL DIURNAL SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM MON-WED. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE STORM  
COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED (SIMILAR TO WHAT IS  
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND). EXACT DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT  
THIS FAR OUT, BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY STORMS WILL LIKELY BE  
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE RAIN EXPECTED FROM TODAY-  
SATURDAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS  
TIME OF YEAR (UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F).  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 630 AM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL NEAR THE COAST WITH IFR TO LIFR STRATUS  
WELL INLAND (WHICH HAS IMPACTED RIC THESE PAST FEW HOURS). ANY  
STRATUS NEAR RIC SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z. CIGS BECOME BKN  
BETWEEN 3000-5000 FT LATER TODAY. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE  
AS EARLY AS 17-19Z AT ORF/PHF...WITH STORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS  
AFTN/THIS EVENING AT RIC/ECG/SBY. THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION  
WON'T BE AS HIGH TODAY AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST TWO DAYS, BUT ANY  
STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF LIFR VSBYS AND GUSTY  
WINDS TO 25-30 KT. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 04-05Z. FOR NOW,  
HAVE VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR RIC/SBY AND HAVE ADDED PROB30 GROUPS  
AT ORF/PHF/ECG WHERE CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IS A BIT HIGHER LATER  
TODAY.  
 
OUTLOOK: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON-LATE EVENING TSTMS ARE  
EXPECTED FROM FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL  
FOR EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG/STRATUS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 235 AM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF LOCAL  
INFLUENCES FROM AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.  
 
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS ARE GENERALLY W OR SW 10-15 KT WITH A FEW  
GUST TO 20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING. WAVES ARE 1-2 FT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT  
(HIGHEST N).  
 
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS  
THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER INLAND AREAS  
AND HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. WINDS TODAY WILL  
STAY MOSTLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE, BECOMING MORE S OR SE INTO  
THIS AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE FORCING MAY ALLOW AREAS NEAR SHORE TO  
GO MORE EASTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER  
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING, PERHAPS FARTHER SOUTH AND A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS  
DAYS. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE SPARSE  
TODAY BUT LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS/WAVES AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING  
CAN BE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT FORM THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY  
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA WINDS AND DAILY SHOWER/STORM  
CHANCES. LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR  
FRONT TO IMPACT THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH FLOW  
BECOMING NE OR E BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BEFORE S FLOW RESUMES INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT  
WITH SEAS 2-3 FT INTO THIS WEEKEND.  
 
THERE IS A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY.  
SOUTHEAST SWELL ENERGY DOES INCREASE A BIT ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY  
FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES, BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LOW RIP RISK FOR  
NOW. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPWELLING ALONG THE  
NORTHERN NC OBX THAT HAS RESULTED IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WATER  
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID 60S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY  
TO PERSIST WITH CONTINUED SW FLOW OVER THE COMING DAYS.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025.  
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ012.  
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-  
075>090-092-509>523.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...ERI  
NEAR TERM...ERI/KMC  
SHORT TERM...ERI  
LONG TERM...ERI/JDM  
AVIATION...ERI  
MARINE...RHR  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab VA Page
The Nexlab NC Page
The Nexlab MD Page Main Text Page