934
FXUS61 KAKQ 140744
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
344 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO MIDWEEK WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY BEFORE THE HEAT
REBUILDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND
EXPANDED FOR MOST OF OUR VA COUNTIES JUST INLAND OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY.
- GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STAGNANT PATTERN PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING GETS
UNDERWAY, ESPECIALLY IN INLAND LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED COPIOUS
RAINFALL THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS DEFINITION WITH SE WINDS
NOTED ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS RENEWED CONVECTION
ALONG A SHARPENING LEE TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE RESULTS IN
A BIT FASTER MOTION FOR THE STORMS THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, CONTINUED PWATS AROUND 2",
AND VERY LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH
INTO THE LATE EVENING TONIGHT. FURTHER EXTENSIONS/EXPANSIONS
EASTWARD ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE FLOOD WATCH
HAVE NOT SEEN AS MUCH PRECIP OF LATE BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THESE REGIONS TONIGHT WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE IN ANY LOCATION WHERE SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAN TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREA. WPC HAS INCLUDED MOST OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
ERO WITH A MARGINAL ERO FOR FAR SE VA AND NE NC. AMPLE INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT AFTER HEATING GETS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. WEAK SHEAR WILL FAVOR PULSE
CONVECTION WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER (LINEAR) ORGANIZATION POSSIBLE FOR
THE EVENING STORMS. GUSTY WINDS FROM WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS ARE THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT. SOME TREES MAY COME DOWN DUE TO SATURATED SOILS
IN THESE GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR STRONG WINDS BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING ARE THE MAIN THREAT ONCE AGAIN TODAY. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 80S (EASTERN SHORE) TO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MUGGY TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE FRONT STALLS
NW OF THE AREA.
THE FRONT STALLS WELL NW OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH YET ANOTHER
DAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS. MORE CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY RESULT IN COOLER HIGH
TEMPS, GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S INLAND WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COAST. HIGHEST POPS ARE FAVORED OVER THE PIEDMONT, TAPERING TO
CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. WPC HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL ERO FOR
TUESDAY AT THE MOMENT BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SLIGHT ERO
EXPANDED EASTWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS REMAIN IN PLACE BUT LACK OF A LOW LEVEL
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION AND SLOWLY RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT LENDS SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND TIMING. THAT SAID, IT WON'T
TAKE MUCH QPF TO CAUSE FLOODING IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN DRENCHED
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT MORE FLOW
ALOFT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE IN
THE SW FLOW ALOFT POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. NO REAL
CHANGES IN THE AIRMASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWATS REMAINING AROUND
2" SO THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
PERSISTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HEAT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE.
UPPER RIDGING EAST OF FLORIDA BUILDS NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ARE
FORECAST AS HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH
LESS THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE LOW
90S THURSDAY AND MID 90S BY FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES CREEP
BACK INTO HEAT ADVISORY RANGE (105+) MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND A MAJORITY OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER (LOW 90S) ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TICKS
UP SO ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 235 AM EDT MONDAY...
COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH A MIX OF FLYING
CONDITION ACROSS THE REGION. TAF SITES ARE ALL VFR FOR NOW BUT
EXPECT MVFR AND IFR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS IS AT RIC. ORF AND ECG
HAVE PREVAILING MVFR WITH TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER IFR TOWARD
SUNRISE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME S OR SE
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS AT
EACH TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RECUR TUE-WED, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE
IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT LOWER LATE IN THE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 345 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF
LOCAL INFLUENCES FROM AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER
JAMES RIVER.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING FRONT WELL OFF THE
MD/VA COAST. MEANWHILE, SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED S OF
THIS FRONT, WITH A TROUGH LINGERING WELL INLAND. THE WIND IS
PRIMARILY SE 5-10KT WITH SEAS 1-2FT AND WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY ~1FT.
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE WIND BECOMES SSE AND REMAINS 5-10KT
THROUGH EARLY AFTN, BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15KT BY MID-AFTN TO
EARLY EVENING, AND THEN BECOMES SW 5-10KT TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN ~2FT
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY BUILDING TO 1-2FT
THIS AFTN AND EVENING, BEFORE SUBSIDING TO ~1FT LATER TONIGHT.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH A MID-AFTN TO EARLY EVENING
SEA-BREEZE INFLUENCED SHIFT TO SSE 10-15KT, BEFORE BECOMING SW 8-
12KT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND WILL MAINLY BE SSW 10-15KT WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO PREVAIL OFFSHORE. SEAS REMAIN ~2FT
TUESDAY AND BUILD TO 2-3FT WEDNESDAY, WITH WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY
1FT TO OCCASIONALLY 2FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE OF THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY BRING SCA
CONDITIONS AS A SW WIND INCREASES TO 15-20KT ACROSS THE CHES. BAY
AND LOWER JAMES. THE WIND DIMINISHES BY FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES DUE TO A WEAKENING FRONT DROPPING TO THE REGION.
SEAS BUILD TO 3-4FT (2-3FT NEARSHORE) BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MUCH
OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH TSTMS WILL BE BRIEF STRONG WIND
GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTING, AND REDUCED VSBY IN HEAVY RAIN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-
075-076-079>083-087-088-509>522.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...LKB/RHR
MARINE...AJB/AJZ
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