017
FXUS61 KAKQ 151118
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
718 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY BEFORE THE HEAT
REBUILDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 320 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL
CENTRAL, EASTERN, AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
COUNTIES/INDEPENDENT CITIES ALONG WITH SOUTHEAST MARYLAND.
- HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING A FLASH FLOODING THREAT, ESPECIALLY
FOR VULNERABLE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAIN THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS DEPICT A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT IS CO-
LOCATED AT THE SURFACE WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN LINGER
EARLY THIS MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS/TSTMS
SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE EARLY MORNING
DIURNAL CYCLE. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REDEVELOP
BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BOGS DOWN AND
THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA. PW VALUES IN VICINITY OF
THE FRONT REMAIN >2" (130-140%) OF NORMAL AND THE SHEAR PROFILE
WILL BE WEAK RESULTING IN SLOW MOVING AND OCCASIONALLY BACK-
BUILDING TSTMS. ALSO, THE SLIGHT RISK ERO HAS BEEN EXTENDED AND
INCLUDES ALL THE LOCAL VA AND SE MD COUNTIES/INDEPENDENT CITIES.
GIVEN THIS THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN AREA AND TIME
AND RUNS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT (BEGINS AT NOON FOR THE NEW
EASTERN SEGMENT, WHICH INCLUDES EASTERN/SE VA AND SE MD). LEAST
CONFIDENCE IS OVER THE VA EASTERN SHORE BUT OPTED TO NOT GET TOO
SPECIFIC WITH THE WATCH. NE NC IS NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME AS
THERE IS LESS OF A SIGNAL THERE IN THE 15/00Z HREF. A LOCALIZED
WET MICROBURST THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY ANY TSTMS, BUT THE THREAT
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MARGINAL RISK AREA.
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT. SEASONALLY HOT AND
HUMID TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90F, AND WARM AND
HUMID TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 320 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE FRONT STALLS NW OF THE
AREA.
A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY (SHIFTED SLIGHTLY N)
WITH A BIT MORE FLOW ALOFT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT POTENTIALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE AIRMASS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH PW VALUES REMAINING AROUND 2" SO THE THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS PERSISTS. GIVEN A
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THE MARGINAL RISK ERO
IS N OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR VULNERABLE AREAS. CONTINUED SEASONALLY HOT AND
HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WARM AND MUGGY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 320 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HEAT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE-WEEK, UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SOME, BUT DUE
TO THE TIME OF YEAR AND WEAKER RIDGE, HAVE MAINTAINED SCATTERED
POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. WITH THE DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
STORMS EXPECTED COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH FRIDAY POSSIBLY SEEING MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THE SAME TIME, THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HEAT
INDICES, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY, COULD ECLIPSE 105F+ SO HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED. ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS WARM, SO HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY ONLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. CONTINUED SEASONALLY HOT AND HUMID
SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH SOME DAMPENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 715 AM EDT TUESDAY...
SHRA/TSRA ARE GENERALLY ON THE DOWNWARD TREND THIS MORNING,
THOUGH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY IS IMPACTING PHF/ORF AS OF THIS
WRITING, WITH ECG POTENTIALLY GETTING A SHRA WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS WELL. PATCHY IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH
14Z. THIS BATCH OF RA WILL DIMINISH BY MID-MORNING, LEAVING SCT-
BKN030-050 SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPS AFTER 18-19Z, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION/COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY IS LOW. INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR
TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT ECG FOR NOW. ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH SOME EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RECUR WED. SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE
IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT LOWER LATE IN THE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 259 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF
LOCAL INFLUENCES FROM AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER.
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO LEAD TO PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER MOST OF THE WATERS. HOWEVER, WINDS IN SOME AREAS HAVE
TURNED TO THE N THIS MORNING DUE TO CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES. THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR WINDS TO AGAIN BECOME SW EVERYWHERE AROUND
SUNRISE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING PERIOD. AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, EXPECT THE WIND DIRECTION TO TURN S-SE AT 10-15 KT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHARPENS SOME INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS WELL N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 10-15 KT
SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LESS OF A SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE APPEARING
INCREASINGLY PLAUSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOCAL WIND PROBABILITIES
ARE 80-90% FOR 18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING HEADLINES GIVEN
THIS IS WITHIN THE FOURTH PERIOD, BUT SCAS WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED SOMETIME WITHIN THE 00Z-12Z PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH 2-3 FT (LOCALLY
4 FT) IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. WINDS DECREASE SOME DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATER, BUT WILL TEND TO REMAIN
GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KT ON NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF THE WATERS (INCLUDING
ON THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND). ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED SW
FLOW (AND SCAS) IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. BY LATER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BENIGN
CONDITIONS RETURN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING NEAR THE AREA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH TSTMS WILL BE BRIEF STRONG
WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTING, AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021-022.
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ023>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-
075>083-087-088-509>522.
FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ084>086-089-090-092-093-095>100-523>525.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/NB
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/NB
LONG TERM...AJZ/NB
AVIATION...AJZ/JKP
MARINE...SW
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