999
FXUS61 KAKQ 160643
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
243 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH A SOMEWHAT LOWER STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 945 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED ALL AREAS WITH NO ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
- AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO EARLY WED MORNING
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHSIDE VA WHERE WIDESPREAD ROAD CLOSURES
REMAIN IN PLACE DUE TO LINGERING AREAS OF HIGH WATER.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, RIDGING INTO THE SE CONUS, WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL/ERN
CANADA. AT THE SFC, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS IN PLACE, WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY NOW MAINLY N OF THE LOCAL AREA.
EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED, WITH JUST A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER THE MD EASTERN SHORE
(MAINLY ALONG THE COAST). ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ALLOWING THE CANCELLATION OF THE
FLOOD WATCH. GIVEN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD REGION OF LINGERING HIGH
WATER AND ROAD CLOSURES, DECIDED TO EXTEND THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH
ACROSS SOUTHSIDE VA INTO EARLY WED MORNING. OTHERWISE, MAINLY
DRY OVERNIGHT, WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MANLY ALONG
THE COAST. LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT, BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY. LOWS WILL
MAINLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
AS OF 308 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE FRONT STALLS NW OF THE
AREA.
A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A BIT MORE FLOW
ALOFT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE IN
THE SW FLOW ALOFT POTENTIALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLED TO OUR NW WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA AND
COULD BE THE TARGET OF STORMS, SO THE AREAS OF HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA TOMORROW.
NO REAL CHANGES IN THE AIRMASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWATS
REMAINING AROUND 2" SO THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS PERSISTS. DUE TO THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
AREA, WPC HAS PLACED OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL ERO TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERED COVERAGE. CONTINUED SEASONALLY HOT
AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WARM AND MUGGY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 308 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HEAT ADVISORIES
POSSIBLE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE-WEEK, UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHWARDS INTO
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH TO
ISOLATED ON THURSDAY. WITH THE DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND STORMS
COMBINED WITH THE UPPER RIDGING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE AT ITS LOWEST ON THURSDAY, AND
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FORECAST IN THE EASTERN AND DEW POINTS
CREEPING UP INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S, HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY
AND LINGER JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD
HELP INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH
SHOWER COVERAGE A LITTLE HIGHER FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY NOT BE REQUIRED, THOUGH WE COULD SEE THE SE/S PORTION
OF OUR AREA REACH THE 105F+ CRITERIA.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF 06Z.
PRIMARILY VFR, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DEVELOPING IFR STRATUS AT
AND AROUND RIC. THE WIND IS VERY LIGHT OUT OF THE SSW. IFR/LIFR
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT RIC THROUGH 10-12Z (ALONG WITH
SOME MVFR VSBY). OTHERWISE, MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT PHF AND
SBY AFTER 09-10Z. ANY LINGERING MVFR CIGS AFTER 12Z ARE EXPECTED
TO LIFT BY 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTN, BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
CONTINUED PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSTMS (19-23Z) FOR ALL SITES BUT
ECG. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SW 8-12KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
20KT WEDNESDAY AFTN. ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
EVENING, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY VFR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOWER SHOWER/TSTM
COVERAGE IS FORECAST THURSDAY, WITH A HIGHER CHC FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS ANOTHER FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.
MARINE
AS OF 240 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
- GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SW FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH STRONG BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. WIND SPEEDS THROUGH TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE
10-15 KT, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING WELL N OF
THE REGION. SCAS HAVE BEEN RAISED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ACROSS
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER FOR SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FROM 05Z/1 AM THU UNTIL 17Z/1
PM THU. WHILE GUSTS TO 20-25 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS, SEAS HOVERING BELOW 5 FT SHOULD MITIGATE THE NEED FOR
HEADLINES HERE. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOWER ON THE UPPER RIVERS, BUT
THESE ZONES COULD EVENTUALLY BE ADDED TO THE SCA. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE OPEN WATERS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, GUSTY SW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE RIVERS AND
LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE
SCA MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THIS TIMEFRAME.
ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SCAS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
SEAS BUILD TO 2-3 FT LATER TODAY AND THEN 3-4 FT TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WAVES IN THE BAY SHOULD AVERAGE 2-3 FT
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT COULD MOMENTARILY INCREASE TO ~4
FT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS/WAVES RETURN TO A BENIGN 1-3 FT
FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTER ANALYZING LATEST WAVE MODEL
DATA, WILL KEEP A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY.
THE NORTHERN BEACHES COULD NEAR MODERATE BY THE LATER
AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
SURF FORECAST FOR NOW.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH TSTMS WILL BE BRIEF STRONGER
WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTING, AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE APPOMATTOX RIVER ABOVE
FARMVILLE THROUGH EARLY WED AFTERNOON. MINOR FLOODING IS
FORECAST AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ638.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/NB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/NB
LONG TERM...AJZ/NB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW
HYDROLOGY...
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