177
FXUS61 KAKQ 170600
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BRINGING INCREASINGLY HOT AND CONTINUED HUMID
CONDITIONS. CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY WITH LESS COVERAGE
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. REMAINING HOT AND HUMID FRIDAY WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AS A
WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 845 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONABLE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MD
EASTERN SHORE.
EVENING WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COMMONWEALTH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS NORTHERN VA AND MARYLAND.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGINIA
PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE AND JUST CLIP PARTS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT HAVE MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF POPS IN THE FORECAST. SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE SOUTH. WHILE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA CLOUD COVER INCREASES SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
ANVILS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S. THESE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TONIGHT AND
LOWS TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN VA
AND THE EASTERN SHORE FOR THURSDAY AS HEAT INDICES REACH UP TO 107.
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AS WELL.
- AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST.
HOTTER CONDITIONS RETURN AS TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB REACH 19-21 C AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO
107 EAST OF I-95 IN VA, WITH VALUES 100-105 ELSEWHERE. HEAT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME FOR THE EASTERN SHORE,
NORTHERN NECK, RIC METRO, THE PENINSULAS, AND SE VA THROUGH 8 PM
THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES ON FRIDAY WILL ALSO APPROACH HEADLINE
CRITERIA, PRIMARILY IN SE VA AND NE NC, AND HEAT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL THEN RETURN TO
NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY,
AIDING IN THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. MORE SHEAR THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS COULD ALLOW
THESE STORMS TO POTENTIALLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT. THE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
BE LESS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. ON FRIDAY, A SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THE DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND WITH THE
CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS 2"+, HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- GENERALLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY FEATURE AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT MAY LIFT
NE OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES
AND LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONALLY HOT AND HUMID EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE RIDGE POSSIBLY MOVING MORE TO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NEW ENGLAND REGION, WHICH COULD ALLOW
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF 06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT PASSED THROUGH
SBY IN THE LAST HOUR RAPIDLY DISSIPATING. THE WIND IS SSW
8-12KT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH SCT AFTN CU WITH BASES ~4KFT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AT RIC AFTER 18Z, AND
GENERALLY 15% OR LESS ELSEWHERE. A SW WIND IS EXPECTED INCREASE
TO 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT TODAY. ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, WITH A SW WIND DIMINISHING
TO 8-12KT.
A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTN AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING REDUCED VSBY IN
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT CHANCES OF AFTN/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PRIMARILY
VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
MARINE
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY,
RIVERS, AND THE VA COASTAL WATERS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
- GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SW FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN A BERMUDA
HIGH OFFSHORE. SW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
(LOCALLY 25-30 KT ACROSS THE CHES BAY) LATER THIS EVENING INTO THU
AFTERNOON. WIND PROBS FOR 18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE TO 90-100%
ACROSS THE CHES BAY WITH WIND PROBS FOR 25 KT GUSTS INCREASING TO 65-
90% ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND VA COASTAL WATERS. AS SUCH, HAVE
EXPANDED THE SCAS AND NOW HAVE SCAS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH
4 PM THU AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWER JAMES AND CHES BAY AND 1 AM THU
THROUGH 1 PM THU FOR THE REST OF THE RIVERS AND THE VA COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
20 KT LATER THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WILL NOTE THAT SCAS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THU
NIGHT IF MODELS TREND HIGHER WITH THE WINDS, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO EXTENDED THEM THAT FAR AT THIS TIME. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-
10 KT FRI BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND REMAIN GENERALLY BENIGN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE EAST
COAST.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH TSTMS WILL BE BRIEF
STRONGER WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTING, AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WAVES AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT TONIGHT INTO THU BEFORE SUBSIDING TO
1-2 FT BY FRI. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 4-5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE VA
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THU. WILL KEEP A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK FOR ALL
BEACHES THU AND FRI. HOWEVER, THE NORTHERN BEACHES APPEAR TO BE A
HIGH-END LOW RIP RISK GIVEN 3-4 FT WAVES WITH SW WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 615 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
FLOOD WARNINGS FOR FARMVILLE AND LAWRENCEVILLE HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED. A NEW FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
BLACKWATER RIVER IN DENDRON.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ064-075>078-081>086-089-090-093-095>100-512-
514>525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-634-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ635>637-652-654-656.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...HET/KMC
SHORT TERM...AJZ/KMC
LONG TERM...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...RMM/SW
HYDROLOGY...
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