377
FXUS61 KAKQ 170701
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
301 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY BRINGING INCREASINGLY HOT AND CONTINUED HUMID
CONDITIONS. CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY WITH LESS COVERAGE
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY. REMAINING HOT AND HUMID FRIDAY WITH AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AS A
WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 845 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONABLE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MD
EASTERN SHORE.
EVENING WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COMMONWEALTH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS NORTHERN VA AND MARYLAND.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGINIA
PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE AND JUST CLIP PARTS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT HAVE MAINTAINED A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF POPS IN THE FORECAST. SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO THE SOUTH. WHILE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA CLOUD COVER INCREASES SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
ANVILS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING ARE
IN THE LOWER 80S. THESE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TONIGHT AND
LOWS TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN VA
AND THE EASTERN SHORE FOR THURSDAY AS HEAT INDICES REACH UP TO 107.
HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AS WELL.
- AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST.
HOTTER CONDITIONS RETURN AS TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB REACH 19-21 C AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO
107 EAST OF I-95 IN VA, WITH VALUES 100-105 ELSEWHERE. HEAT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME FOR THE EASTERN SHORE,
NORTHERN NECK, RIC METRO, THE PENINSULAS, AND SE VA THROUGH 8 PM
THURSDAY. HEAT INDICES ON FRIDAY WILL ALSO APPROACH HEADLINE
CRITERIA, PRIMARILY IN SE VA AND NE NC, AND HEAT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL THEN RETURN TO
NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY,
AIDING IN THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON. MORE SHEAR THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS COULD ALLOW
THESE STORMS TO POTENTIALLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT. THE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
BE LESS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. ON FRIDAY, A SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THE DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND WITH THE
CONTINUED MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS 2"+, HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- GENERALLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL GENERALLY FEATURE AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT MAY LIFT
NE OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES
AND LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONALLY HOT AND HUMID EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE RIDGE POSSIBLY MOVING MORE TO THE WEST AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NEW ENGLAND REGION, WHICH COULD ALLOW
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS OF 06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT PASSED THROUGH
SBY IN THE LAST HOUR RAPIDLY DISSIPATING. THE WIND IS SSW
8-12KT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY WITH SCT AFTN CU WITH BASES ~4KFT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AT RIC AFTER 18Z, AND
GENERALLY 15% OR LESS ELSEWHERE. A SW WIND IS EXPECTED INCREASE
TO 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT TODAY. ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, WITH A SW WIND DIMINISHING
TO 8-12KT.
A COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTN AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING REDUCED VSBY IN
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT CHANCES OF AFTN/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PRIMARILY
VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY,
RIVERS, AND COASTAL WATERS OFFSHORE OF VA.
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
IS LEADING TO A PERIOD OF ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING.
OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY REFLECTING 15-20 KT WIND SPEEDS WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
MOST WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND.
ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP OFF SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY, GUSTY SW WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS
NEARSHORE AREAS OF THE LOWER BAY AND JAMES AND YORK RIVERS. HAVE
THEREFORE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED SW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS SUB-SCA WINDS. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WIND FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS A SLOW-
MOVING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. REGARDLESS, A WIND SHIFT TO
THE N/NNE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY RATHER
VARIABLE/SEA BREEZE-DOMINATED WIND DIRECTIONS BY THE AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
TRIGGER RATHER WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING FRIDAY, WITH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND
WAVES POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS.
S-SW FLOW RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY BENIGN/VARIABLE
MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY OF 2-3 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
TODAY. ON THE OCEAN, SEAS GENERALLY STAY IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE,
BUT COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 5 FT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS LATER THIS
MORNING. 1-2 FT WAVES AND SEAS PREVAIL FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 615 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
FLOOD WARNINGS FOR FARMVILLE AND LAWRENCEVILLE HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED. A NEW FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
BLACKWATER RIVER IN DENDRON.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ014>017-031-032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ064-075>078-081>086-088>090-092-093-095>100-
511>525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630-
631-635.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
634-636>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ652-
654-656.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...HET/KMC
SHORT TERM...AJZ/KMC
LONG TERM...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...SW
HYDROLOGY...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page