939
FXUS61 KAKQ 180624
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
224 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY BRINGING
HOT AND CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO
THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 810 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
- HEAT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SLOWLY DRAGS A WEAK
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION, EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE NY TO CENTRAL
IL. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THE
MOIST AIRMASS IS STILL IN PLACE BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING TEMPERATURES AS OF 8PM MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW 105 ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS AND
THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS A CAP HAS BUILT INTO
THE AREA PREVENTING STORM INITIATION. POPS HAVE BEEN LOWED TO
20% THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH
THE AREA. THIS FORCING COULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP INITIATE A STORM
LATE THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE INTO TONIGHT, BUT
REMAINING HUMID, ALONG WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
AS OF 255 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR NE NC AS HEAT INDICES OF 105
TO 109 ARE EXPECTED.
- FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR
AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY ALONG WITH THE
THREAT OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH INTO CENTRAL VA LATE
FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING IN THE AREA. THE MILDER AND DRIER AIRMASS,
HOWEVER, WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT, AS THE MOIST AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. THIS AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES 2"+ WILL
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT CAUSING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST HREF PROBS FOR 3"/3 HR PMM CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW 30%
CONTOURS IN THE AREA, WITH CONSECUTIVE 70% CONTOURS FOR 1"/3 HR.
WITH THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AVERAGING 1-1.5"/HR FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO OCCUR, THIS IS THE MAIN THREAT. IN CONJUNCTION, FLOOD
WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR AS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-4" COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. A SLIGHT
ERO IS FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBILITY. THERE IS ALSO SLIGHTLY BETTER FLOW ALOFT WITH
500 MB SHOWING AROUND 35 KT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER STORM
ORGANIZATION AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY, HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR NE NC AS HEAT
INDICES REACH UP TO 105-109 DURING PEAK HEATING ON FRIDAY. VA AND MD
COULD SEE HEAT INDICES UP TO 104.
THE FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS WELL, PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. PWATS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE 2"+ AND THE SLIGHT ERO CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY AS WELL. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE,
DEPENDING ON RAINFALL TOTALS FROM FRIDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
REACH 105-109 IN NE NC ON SATURDAY AS WELL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 255 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- GENERALLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. EPS/GEFS EACH RETROGRADE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST
EARLY-MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS DEVELOP OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS MAY ACTUALLY PUSH A FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA WITH PW VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S. THIS MAY ALLOW A BREAK IN THE HEAVY PRECIP.
HOWEVER, THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE IN A NW FLOW REGIME BETWEEN THE
TROUGH TO THE NE AND THE RIDGE TO THE SW. THEREFORE, SLIGHT CHC TO
CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE, HIGHEST S.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 225 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING PERIOD TODAY, WITH SW WINDS AVERAGING ~5
KT. BY 14-15Z, EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT WITH BASES 3-5K FT AGL AS
WINDS BRIEFLY TURN N-NE NEAR A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT
W/NW OF RIC AND MOVE SE LATER THIS EVENING TOWARD THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER ON THE EASTERN
SHORE, INCLUDING AT SBY. GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS, WILL HAVE PREVAILING -SHRA AT RIC, PHF, ORF, AND
ECG AND PROB30 GROUPS TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL IFR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS FROM STORMS (MAINLY DUE TO VSBY). HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT SBY, THOUGH, AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER HERE. STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED STRONG WIND
GUSTS. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP OF AFTER 00Z, WITH
LINGERING ACTIVITY LIKELY ACROSS THE SE. LOW STRATUS OR FOG
COULD DEVELOP CLOSER TO 06Z SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
AND DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION.
OUTLOOK: UNSETTLED CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN SHOWERS/STORMS. A LOWER COVERAGE
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY-TUESDAY. PRIMARILY VFR OUTSIDE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
MARINE
AS OF 205 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING.
- WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF BRIEF
SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER BAY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WITH BUILDING SEAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY-FRIDAY WITH DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OUT IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. TO THE NORTH, A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DROP TOWARD THE DELMARVA EARLY THIS MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SSW 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO
~ 20 KT. SEAS AVERAGED 2-3 FT, WITH WAVES ~1 FT ON THE BAY, SOUND
AND E VA RIVERS.
THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS LATER THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE
W THEN NW ~10KT BY 8-10 AM, THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
DEVELOPING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE, BRINGING WINDS ONSHORE WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 KT. AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE TODAY, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF SMWS ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
WINDMILL POINT.
THAT FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH S-SW FLOW RESUMING OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ALSO
EXPECTED TO PERSIST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN ZONES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE N THEN NE AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT. NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE THEN FORECAST THROUGH
TUE. WHILE THE GRIDDED FORECAST DOESN'T DEPICT SCA CONDITIONS, CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCAS DURING THE
MON/TUE TIMEFRAME.
1-2 FT WAVES AND ~2-3 FT SEAS PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. IF THE
STRONGER NE SURGE DOES COME TO PASS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, SEAS
COULD INCREASE TO ~3-4 FT IN STRONGER SE SWELL MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES. FOR NOW, HAVE
MAINTAINED 2- 3 FT SEAS IN ANTICIPATION OF A WEAKER FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY
AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 205 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BLACKWATER RIVER IN
DENDRON. HOWEVER, THE GAUGE INDICATES THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND
WILL FALL BELOW MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATER THIS MORNING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
VAZ084-090-092-093-095>098-523>525.
FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>083-087>089-509>520.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...HET/KMC
SHORT TERM...AJZ/KMC
LONG TERM...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...ERI/MAM
HYDROLOGY...
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